Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen: UFC Betting Preview

Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen fight analysis

Fight Overview

The highly anticipated middleweight showdown between Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen is set to ignite Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, on Saturday, October 18, 2025, at 7:00 PM local time (10:00 PM ET). This bout headlines the main card of UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen, broadcasting live from Canada’s Rogers Arena in front of a passionate Pacific Northwest crowd.

Venue & Timing

• Date: October 18, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM ET
• Arena: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC, Canada
• Event Stage: Main Card (Middleweight Division)

With both men riding significant momentum, fans and bettors alike are buzzing about the contrasting styles and career trajectories that make this matchup one of the most intriguing middleweight contests of the year.

Betting Odds & Key Storylines

According to the latest odds across top sportsbooks, Reinier de Ridder enters as the clear favorite, priced between -174 (FanDuel) and -183 (BetOnline.ag). The Dutch submission specialist boasts a formidable 21–2–0 professional record, sitting at #4 in the official UFC middleweight rankings. His opponents have rarely escaped his patented grappling game, as evidenced by 13 submission wins and 11 first-round finishes in his career.

On the other side of the Octagon, Brendan Allen carries the underdog tag at odds around +136 (FanDuel) to +158 (BetOnline.ag). The 29-year-old American prospect stands #9 in the division, with a 25–7–0 record highlighting his own submission prowess (14 total). Allen’s credentials include unanimous-decision victories over top contenders and a relentless pace that has seen him maintain a 53% significant strike accuracy and 41% takedown success rate.

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Favorite: Reinier de Ridder (–180 to –174)
• Underdog: Brendan Allen (+136 to +158)

De Ridder’s reputation as a grappling virtuoso and his recent win streak—knocking off Bo Nickal by TKO and edging out former champion Robert Whittaker by split decision—has cemented him as the man to beat. Allen, meanwhile, is riding the high of a unanimous-decision win over Marvin Vettori this past July and is determined to prove his resilience against one of the division’s elite.

Stakes & Implications

A victory for de Ridder could propel him further into title contention, strengthening his claim as a dominant force in the 185-pound weight class. For Allen, an upset win over the Dutchman would be a career-defining moment, vaulting him toward the top five and signaling his arrival as a future title challenger.

As fight night approaches, all eyes will be on Vancouver to witness whether Reinier de Ridder can assert his grappling supremacy or if Brendan Allen’s well-rounded skill set and momentum can engineer a stunning upset on foreign soil.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for de Ridder vs Allen can be found on the de Ridder vs Allen event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Brendan Allen: The American Submission Threat

Age: 29 • Country: United States • Fighting Style: MMA (well-rounded grappler/striker)
Record: 25–7–0 • UFC Ranking: #9 Middleweight

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs Marvin Vettori (Jul. 19, 2025) – Decision (Unanimous)
• Loss vs Anthony Hernandez (Feb. 22, 2025) – Decision (Unanimous)
• Loss vs Nassourdine Imavov (Sep. 28, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)
• Win vs Chris Curtis (Apr. 6, 2024) – Decision (Split)
• Win vs Paul Craig (Nov. 18, 2023) – Submission (Round 3, 0:38)

Strengths

• Submission Arsenal: 14 of his 25 victories come by submission. His jiu-jitsu transitions and leg-lock attacks are among the division’s most dangerous.
• Finishing Instinct: 11 first-round finishes demonstrate his ability to close distance and capitalize on early openings.
• Striking Accuracy: 53% significant strike accuracy allows him to land clean shots when closing range.
• Takedown Efficiency: 41% takedown success rate, with a 57% takedown defense to counter strong wrestlers.

Weaknesses

• Defensive Striking: 48% significant strike defense is below division average, making him susceptible to heavy punchers like de Ridder.
• Durability Over Distance: Three of his last five fights went the distance—two losses by decision—suggesting he can be out-paced over 15+ minutes.
• Wrestling Matchups: Against elite grapplers with higher takedown defense, his 41% accuracy may be neutralized, forcing him to rely on stand-up exchanges.

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Reinier de Ridder: The Dutch Grappling Maestro

Age: 34 • Country: Netherlands • Fighting Style: Jiu-Jitsu (elite submission specialist)
Record: 21–2–0 • UFC Ranking: #4 Middleweight

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

• Win vs Robert Whittaker (Jul. 26, 2025) – Decision (Split)
• Win vs Bo Nickal (May 3, 2025) – KO/TKO (Round 2, 1:53)
• Win vs Kevin Holland (Jan. 18, 2025) – Submission (Round 1, 3:31)
• Win vs Gerald Meerschaert (Nov. 9, 2024) – Submission (Round 3, 1:44)

Strengths

• Grappling Dominance: 13 submission wins and an imposing Jiu-Jitsu pedigree make him a constant threat on the ground.
• Takedown Defense: 67% takedown defense is among the best in the division, stifling opponents’ offensive wrestling.
• Durability & Cardio: Average fight time of 11:47 over multiple five-round affairs shows he maintains pace deep into fights.
• Strike Defense: 50% significant strike defense helps him weather flurries and counter effectively.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: 27% takedown accuracy is modest; against a wrestler-striker like Allen, he may struggle to impose his game plan exclusively on the mat.
• Stand-up Arsenal: While competent, his striking volume and power are less pronounced compared to his submission work, leaving him open if Allen keeps the fight upright.
• Age & Wear: At 34, a slower reaction time in scrambles could hinder his ability to shut down explosive counters.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Grappling vs. Grappling: Allen’s 41% takedowns against de Ridder’s 67% defense sets a key chess match on the canvas.
• Striking Exchanges: Both fighters share a 53% sig strike accuracy, but Allen’s lower defense (48%) vs. de Ridder’s (50%) could tip stand-up battles in the Dutchman’s favor.
• Pace & Cardio: De Ridder’s proven five-round stamina contrasts with Allen’s tendency toward early finishes or decisions, potentially giving the favorite an edge in championship-distance scenarios.

This clash of submission maestros and strategic strikers will hinge on who can enforce their preferred realm—ground or stand-up—while exploiting the other’s statistical vulnerabilities.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Reinier de Ridder (Favorite):
  • Best Price: –174 at FanDuel
  • Other Prices: –180 (Caesars, BetRivers), –183 (BetOnline.ag)
• Brendan Allen (Underdog):
  • Best Price: +158 at BetOnline.ag
  • Other Prices: +136 (FanDuel), +140 (Caesars), +143 (BetRivers)

The spread between the two fighters is substantial. De Ridder’s best line (–174) makes him a clear favorite, while Allen’s top offer (+158) provides significant upside for underdog backers. At these odds, de Ridder carries an implied win probability of roughly 64%, and Allen sits around 39%.

Line Movement Analysis

Reinier de Ridder (BetOnline.ag)

• Sep 19: –171
• Sep 20: –175
• Sep 28 (17:16): –160 (brief dip, bettors saw extra value)
• Sep 28 (17:52): –175
• Sep 29: –170
• Oct 03: –175

De Ridder’s line briefly shortened to –160 on Sep 28 before settling back around –175. This fluctuation suggests a small surge of early money on him—yet the market quickly corrected to pre-dip levels.

Brendan Allen (BetOnline.ag)

• Sep 19: +146
• Sep 20: +150
• Sep 28 (17:16): +140 (short-lived undervaluation)
• Sep 28 (17:52): +150
• Sep 29: +145
• Oct 03: +150

Allen’s odds bottomed out at +140 on Sep 28, likely reflecting some late bettor confidence, but subsequently climbed back to +150. The oscillation between +140 and +150 shows modest interest in his upset potential, without any dramatic swings.

Best Sportsbooks to Bet On

• For De Ridder: FanDuel at –174 offers the most favorable price for the favorite.
• For Allen: BetOnline.ag at +158 maximizes the underdog payout.

$1,000 Payout Scenarios

• $1,000 on de Ridder (–174):
  Return of approximately $1,575 (your $1,000 stake + ~$575 profit).
• $1,000 on Allen (+158):
  Return of approximately $2,580 (your $1,000 stake + ~$1,580 profit).

These figures demonstrate how much you stand to win backing either side at the current lines. The significant gap between favorite and underdog underscores the risk/reward dynamic: de Ridder offers lower returns but a higher likelihood of winning; Allen delivers a larger payday but with a smaller chance of victory.

As fight night approaches, keep an eye on any further line shifts—especially if new information emerges (training updates, scratches, or weight-cut news) that could swing the market in favor of one fighter or the other.