Kopylov vs Rodrigues Odds & Prediction | UFC 322 Preview

Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues Fight Analysis

Introduction

On November 16, 2025, fight fans will turn their attention to Madison Square Garden in New York City as UFC 322 kicks off its Preliminary Card with a compelling Middleweight showdown between Roman Kopylov and Gregory Rodrigues. Scheduled to begin at 1:00 AM ET, this bout represents a pivotal crossroads for both athletes as they attempt to climb the divisional ladder. With championship aspirations looming on the horizon, a victory here could vault either man closer to a top-contender clash, while defeat would force a reassessment of strategy and direction in one of the UFC’s most talent-rich weight classes.

Fight Overview

• Event: UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev
• Date & Time: November 16, 2025 at 1:00 AM ET
• Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, USA
• Card Placement: Preliminary Card, Middleweight division (185 lb)

This matchup pits two seasoned veterans with contrasting styles against one another. The Brazilian grappler and knockout artist Gregory Rodrigues (17-6-0) enters the Octagon as the consensus favorite, while the powerful Russian striker Roman Kopylov (14-4-0), currently ranked #15 in the Middleweight division, looks to rebound and continue his climb up the ranks as the underdog.

Odds and Betting Lines

• Gregory Rodrigues:
  • BetOnline.ag: –155 (H2H)
  • Bovada: –160 (H2H)
• Roman Kopylov:
  • BetOnline.ag: +135 (H2H)
  • Bovada: +135 (H2H)

Rodrigues has seen his odds shorten steadily over the past week, as bettors are drawn to his high finishing rate (11 KO/TKO victories) and formidable takedown defense (90%). Kopylov, meanwhile, offers value at +135, thanks to his 12 career knockouts and ability to pressure opponents with heavy shots and solid clinch work.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Momentum Shift: Both athletes arrive off mixed results in 2025. Rodrigues suffered back-to-back losses to Jared Cannonier (KO/TKO in Round 4) and Jack Hermansson (decision), and now seeks to reestablish his place among the division’s elite. Kopylov, coming off a loss to Paulo Costa (decision) but armed with a knockout win over Chris Curtis earlier in the year, sees this as a chance to break into the top 10.

2. Stylistic Clash: Rodrigues’ grappling pedigree and first-round finishing prowess contrast sharply with Kopylov’s relentless striking and durable chin. Fans can expect a chess match of takedown entries, clinch battles, and explosive striking exchanges.

3. Playoff Implications: A victory here could propel the winner into the conversation for a high-profile bout against a top-5 opponent or possibly even “contender status.” For the loser, another setback might mean a return to the prelims and months away from meaningful advancement.

As we gear up for this pivotal Middleweight tilt, the storylines are clear: Gregory Rodrigues must display the depth of his grappling acumen and knockout power to justify favorite status, while Roman Kopylov needs to capitalize on every striking opportunity and impose his will to defy the odds. The stage is set for an electrifying start to UFC 322’s Preliminary Card—don’t miss a second of this clash between two men hungry for redemption and opportunity.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Roman Kopylov: The Russian Powerhouse

Age: 33
Country: Russia (Kemerovo Oblast)
Fighting Style: Striking-oriented power puncher with developing wrestling
Record: 14–4–0 (12 KO, 0 Submissions)

Recent Form

• 2025-07-19: Loss vs. Paulo Costa – Decision (Unanimous), 3 rounds
• 2025-01-11: Win vs. Chris Curtis – KO/TKO, Round 3 (4:59)
• 2024-06-01: Win vs. César Almeida – Decision (Split), 3 rounds
• 2024-02-17: Loss vs. Anthony Hernandez – Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), Round 2 (3:23)
• 2023-09-16: Win vs. Josh Fremd – KO/TKO, Round 2 (4:44)

Kopylov has alternated wins and losses in five straight outings, showcasing heavy hands and finishing ability against mid-tier opponents but also revealing gaps when facing well-rounded fighters.

Strengths

• Knockout Power (86% of wins): 12 of his 14 victories come by KO/TKO.
• Durability: Career significant strike defense at 53%, indicating an ability to weather exchanges and break opponents down.
• Takedown Offense (42%) & Defense (88%): Respectable wrestling metrics for a primary striker, allowing him to keep the fight where he’s strongest.

Weaknesses

• Ground Vulnerability: Surrendered a submission loss to Anthony Hernandez, suggesting he can be exposed when forced into scrambles.
• Card Work: Two unanimous decision losses indicate cardio or volume striking may lag behind top-level pressure fighters.
• Average Fight Time (11:43): Tends to extend into championship rounds, where opponents can game-plan and neutralize his power over time.

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Gregory Rodrigues: The Brazilian Grappler

Age: 33
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Grappler with heavy hands and submission pedigree
Record: 17–6–0 (11 KO, 3 Submissions)

Recent Form

• 2025-06-28: Loss vs. Jack Hermansson – Decision (Unanimous), 3 rounds
• 2025-02-15: Loss vs. Jared Cannonier – KO/TKO, Round 4 (0:21)
• 2024-07-27: Win vs. Christian Leroy Duncan – Decision (Unanimous), 3 rounds
• 2024-02-10: Win vs. Brad Tavares – KO/TKO, Round 3 (0:55)
• 2023-08-19: Win vs. Denis Tiuliulin – KO/TKO, Round 1 (1:43)

Rodrigues arrived on a three-fight win streak before consecutive setbacks in 2025. His blend of grappling and power has overwhelmed opponents early but he’s yet to bounce back from high-profile defeats.

Strengths

• Finishing Versatility: 11 KOs and 3 submissions showcase dual threats—striking power paired with a 38% takedown accuracy.
• First-Round Firepower: Eight career first-round finishes keep early pressure on opponents.
• Takedown Defense (90%): Elite ability to stuff takedown attempts, forcing fights into grappling exchanges on his terms.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (52%): Slightly above average connects, making his counters and combinations efficient.

Weaknesses

• Durability Under Fire: Suffered two stoppage losses in recent outings, indicating potential susceptibility to heavy hitters.
• Cardio and Late-Round Pressure: Average fight time of 8:29 suggests he either finishes early or fades when the fight extends.
• Striking Defense (51%): Near-50% striking defense means nearly half of incoming strikes land, which can be costly against power punchers like Kopylov.

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Comparative Breakdown

• Power vs. Power: Both men boast high KO ratios—Kopylov at 86% and Rodrigues at 65%—setting the stage for explosive stand-up exchanges.
• Grappling Edge: Rodrigues’ 90% takedown defense and 3 submission wins give him the edge on the mat; Kopylov must defend takedowns to keep the fight upright.
• Durability Test: Rodrigues has shown cracks under heavy fire (51% defense), while Kopylov’s chin has withstood pressure but hasn’t been tested against elite grappling transitions.
• Pacing & Cardio: Kopylov’s longer average fight time (11:43) hints at superior cardio for later rounds; Rodrigues’ penchant for early finishes may leave him vulnerable if he fails to secure an early stoppage.

This Middleweight tussle will hinge on Rodrigues’ ability to blend takedown entries with sharp counters against Kopylov’s raw knockout power and improved wrestling. Fans should expect wrestling sequences, heavy strikes, and a crucial test of cardio as both athletes vie for a statement win on the Preliminary Card of UFC 322.

Odds and Betting Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of November 3, 2025, the betting lines for the Middleweight showdown between Gregory Rodrigues and Roman Kopylov stand as follows:

• Gregory Rodrigues (Favorite)

  • BetOnline.ag: –155
  • Bovada: –160

• Roman Kopylov (Underdog)

  • BetOnline.ag: +135
  • Bovada: +135

Rodrigues is the clear favorite, with bettors needing to wager $155 at BetOnline.ag (or $160 at Bovada) to win $100. Kopylov, as the underdog, offers a juicy +135 payout: a $100 bet returns $135 in profit.

Line Movement Analysis

Examining the odds history reveals significant swings over the past week:

• Gregory Rodrigues (BetOnline.ag)

  • Opened at –140 on October 29
  • Briefly shifted to –120, then settled around –130
  • Sharp move from –132 to –148 on October 30, reflecting early-money backing
  • Gradual descent to –155 by November 3

• Roman Kopylov (BetOnline.ag)

  • Began at +120, dropped to +100 as bettors bet the dog
  • Fluctuated between +105 and +112, then jumped to +128
  • Climbed to +135 after heavy action on Rodrigues

On Bovada, Rodrigues held steady at –160, while Kopylov bounced between +130 and +135. The steeper slide for Rodrigues at BetOnline.ag indicates sharper bettors placing large sums on the favorite, whereas Kopylov’s line drift suggests more casual money on the upset.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Favorite (Rodrigues): BetOnline.ag is your best bet at –155, versus Bovada’s –160.
• Underdog (Kopylov): Both BetOnline.ag and Bovada offer +135, making either book equally attractive.

For bettors focused on maximizing value, BetOnline.ag delivers the most favorable price on the favorite, while the underdog line is uniform across both sites.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you back either fighter with $1,000, here’s what you stand to win based on current lines:

• $1,000 on Gregory Rodrigues (–155 at BetOnline.ag)

  • Profit: $645
  • Total Return: $1,645
  • Implied Win Probability: ≈60%

• $1,000 on Roman Kopylov (+135 at BetOnline.ag/Bovada)

  • Profit: $1,350
  • Total Return: $2,350
  • Implied Win Probability: ≈42%

Rodrigues carries roughly a 60 percent chance to win in the eyes of the market, while Kopylov is pegged around 42 percent—highlighting the risk/reward trade-off for bettors.

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Bottom Line:

• Rodrigues remains the safer play with higher implied odds in his favor, especially at BetOnline.ag’s –155.
• Kopylov offers a tantalizing underdog payout at +135, and his recent improvements in striking and wrestling warrant consideration if you’re chasing upside.
• Line movement shows more professional money leaning toward Rodrigues, but late shifts on Kopylov suggest insider confidence in his power to pull off the upset.

Choose your book, size up the risk, and get your wager in early if you want to lock these lines before any last-minute swings.