UFC 322: Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez Odds & AI Pick

Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez Fight Analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated women’s flyweight bout between Erin Blanchfield and Tracy Cortez will kick off the Preliminary Card of UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. The action goes live on Saturday, November 15, 2025, with the Preliminary Card scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN. Blanchfield vs. Cortez is expected to hit the Octagon around 9:00 PM ET, marking one of the most intriguing matchups on a stacked night of fights.

From the opening bell, all eyes will be on the young phenom Erin Blanchfield (13–2–0), who enters as the clear favorite on the sportsbooks at -175 (63% implied probability). At just 26 years old, Blanchfield has rapidly climbed the flyweight ranks—earning a #4 divisional ranking and cracking the top-10 of the official UFC “Pound-for-Pound” list. Armed with a Jiu-Jitsu‐heavy skill set, she boasts four submission victories, including back-to-back first-round finishes over Jessica Andrade and Molly McCann. Blanchfield’s 80% takedown defense and sharp ground control have made her one of the toughest matchups for anyone in the 125-pound division.

Standing across the cage is the gritty veteran Tracy Cortez (12–2–0), slotted as the underdog at +150 (40% implied probability). The 31-year-old Cortez has quietly carved out an impressive résumé, defeating three straight opponents before suffering consecutive losses to Rose Namajunas and Viviane Araujo. Known for her heavy hands, 49% significant‐strike accuracy, and a solid 62% takedown defense, Cortez brings plenty of tools to negate Blanchfield’s ground attack. She also has respectable wrestling credentials, boasting a 48% takedown accuracy—a statistic that suggests she can initiate scrambles and dictate the pace in clinch exchanges.

This matchup isn’t just about styles, though—it’s a classic clash of youth and momentum versus veteran savvy. Blanchfield’s trajectory points straight up, fueled by a relentless pace and a growing submission arsenal. Cortez, however, has demonstrated toughness in deep waters, showing durability and improved striking output against elite competition. The result of this fight could make or break title ambitions for both women: a win for Blanchfield reinforces her status as a top contender, while an upset by Cortez would catapult her into the upper echelon of the women’s flyweight division.

As fight night approaches, bettors have moved the line slightly—Blanchfield opened as a -175 favorite at both BetOnline.ag and Bovada, while Cortez has remained steady at +150. With evenly matched physical attributes (Blanchfield’s 66″ reach to Cortez’s 65.5″) and contrasting skill sets, this contest promises fireworks from the opening bell. Stay tuned as we dive deeper into each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and key betting trends in our full breakdown below.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Erin Blanchfield Profile

• Age: 26
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with well-rounded MMA skills
• Record: 13–2–0 (2 KOs, 4 Submissions)
• Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):
  1. Win vs. Rose Namajunas — Decision (Unanimous), Nov. 2, 2024
  2. Loss vs. Manon Fiorot — Decision (Unanimous), Mar. 30, 2024
  3. Win vs. Taila Santos — Decision (Unanimous), Aug. 26, 2023
  4. Win vs. Jessica Andrade — Submission (RNC), Feb. 18, 2023
  5. Win vs. Molly McCann — Submission (Arm-Triangle), Nov. 12, 2022

Erin Blanchfield has rapidly ascended the women’s flyweight division thanks to her dominant ground game and relentless pace. A three-time first-round finisher, she has developed world-class submission setups, blending scrambles, clinch work, and top control. Blanchfield’s recent unanimous decision victory over former champion Rose Namajunas reinforced her status among the elite, showcasing improved wrestling defense and stamina.

Tracy Cortez Profile

• Age: 31
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with boxing and wrestling foundations
• Record: 12–2–0 (1 KO, 1 Submission)
• Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):
  1. Loss vs. Viviane Araujo — Decision, Jun. 28, 2025
  2. Loss vs. Rose Namajunas — Decision (Unanimous), Jul. 13, 2024
  3. Win vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius — Decision (Unanimous), Sep. 16, 2023
  4. Win vs. Melissa Gatto — Decision (Unanimous), May 7, 2022
  5. Win vs. Justine Kish — Decision (Split), Apr. 17, 2021

Tracy Cortez brings veteran savvy and striking volume to the Octagon. Her boxing technique yields a 49% significant-strike accuracy, and she presses forward with heavy combinations. While she hasn’t recorded a finish since her pre-UFC days, Cortez’s consistency and toughness have earned her three straight wins before running into two high-level opponents in Namajunas and Araujo.

Comparative Strengths and Weaknesses

| Statistic | Blanchfield | Cortez | |-----------------------------|---------------------------|----------------------------| | Sig Strike Accuracy | 44% | 49% | | Sig Strike Defense | 59% | 57% | | Takedown Accuracy | 32% | 48% | | Takedown Defense | 80% | 62% | | Avg. Fight Time | 14:07 | 16:15 |

Key Strengths (Blanchfield):

• Elite Takedown Defense (80%) limits opponents’ chances to exploit wrestling.
• Submissions: Four career tapouts, including slick chokes from top control.
• First-Round Finishes: Three quick stoppages, showing explosive grappling entry.

Vulnerabilities (Blanchfield):

• Striking Accuracy (44%) is solid but below Cortez; could be outpaced on feet.
• Takedown Offense (32%) relies on timing and setup; susceptible if blocked.

Key Strengths (Cortez):

• Takedown Offense (48%) allows her to mix wrestling and clinch effectively.
• Significant-Strike Output: Consistent volume keeps opponents on the back foot.
• Durability: Has never been finished in the UFC, showcasing solid defense.

Vulnerabilities (Cortez):

• Takedown Defense (62%) may be tested by Blanchfield’s relentless grappling.
• Lack of Finishing Power: No UFC finishes; relies on judges’ scorecards in tight bouts.

This clash pits Blanchfield’s submission pedigree and takedown defense against Cortez’s striking volume and wrestling mix. As a young contender versus a grizzled veteran, both fighters will lean into their strongest assets—expect Blanchfield to hunt for ground control, while Cortez aims to keep the fight standing and exploit any striking openings.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As fight night looms, the sportsbooks have Erin Blanchfield firmly installed as the favorite at -175 across both BetOnline.ag and Bovada, while Tracy Cortez sits as the underdog at +150. That gap underscores the market’s confidence in Blanchfield’s blend of elite grappling and unbeaten momentum against a veteran Cortez, who will need to overcome a sizable betting differential to pull off the upset.

• Erin Blanchfield: –175 (BetOnline.ag, Bovada)
• Tracy Cortez: +150 (BetOnline.ag, Bovada)

Given identical lines at the two leading sportsbooks, bettors aren’t finding a “steal” at one book over another. However, Bovada’s user interface and live betting options remain popular among UFC punters, making it a strong choice for those looking to adjust wagers in real time.

Line Movement & Market Sentiment

A deeper dive into the odds history reveals a modest tug-of-war between early money on the favorite and late action backing the underdog:

• Erin Blanchfield (–175 → –200 → –175)
  • Opened at –175 on BetOnline.ag and Bovada
  • Sharpened to –200 after heavy early bets on Blanchfield’s submission prowess
  • Eased back to –175 as sharp bettors found value on Cortez

• Tracy Cortez (+150 → +170 → +145 → +150)
  • Began at +150 but drifted to +170 on Bovada, suggesting cautious action
  • Popped back to +145 when contrarian money wagered on Cortez’s wrestling
  • Settled at +150 amid an influx of last-minute underdog bets

Though neither line swung wildly—both fighters saw at most a 25-cent shift—the ebb and flow highlights two camps of interest. Early money favored Blanchfield’s high-octane ground game, while opportunists latched onto Cortez at improved odds, banking on her takedown entries and resilient chin.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re considering a $1,000 wager, here’s what you’d collect at current odds (stake included):

• $1,000 on Erin Blanchfield (–175)
  Return: $1,571 (profit of $571)
  Implied Win Probability: ~63%

• $1,000 on Tracy Cortez (+150)
  Return: $2,500 (profit of $1,500)
  Implied Win Probability: ~40%

These figures illustrate the trade-off: backing the favorite yields a smaller but steadier return, while the underdog offers a substantially higher payoff—albeit with lower implied chances.

Best Sportsbook Recommendation

Given the identical lines, your choice comes down to platform features:

• Bovada offers the most robust live-betting interface and frequent odds boosts on UFC fights, making it ideal for adjusting in-fight wagers.
• BetOnline.ag typically provides slightly better deposit promos and longer credit extensions for professional bettors.

For the Blanchfield vs. Cortez matchup, Bovada’s live markets and in-play props (first-round finish, method of victory) give it the edge, especially if you’re looking to hedge or parlay across multiple UFC 322 bouts.

In summary, Erin Blanchfield is the clear betting favorite, but Tracy Cortez’s line movement shows enough late support to make her a tempting underdog. Whether you’re chasing a safer profit or a high-reward upset, understanding these odds trends and potential payouts will help you make a more informed wager on fight night.