Kyle Daukaus vs Gerald Meerschaert Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Kyle Daukaus vs Gerald Meerschaert fight analysis

Overview

Mark your calendars for Saturday, November 15, 2025, as the Middleweight clash between Kyle Daukaus and Gerald Meerschaert kicks off at 6:00 PM ET (23:00 UTC) on the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev. This exciting bout takes place at the iconic Madison Square Garden in New York, NY, and will be available live on ESPN+ and ESPN.

Fight Spotlight

• Favorite: Kyle Daukaus (-345 at BetOnline.ag; -360 at Bovada)
• Underdog: Gerald Meerschaert (+285 at BetOnline.ag; +280 at Bovada)

The oddsmakers’ board clearly favors the unbeaten-in-2025 surging grappler Kyle Daukaus, who boasts a 16–4 record and has dazzled fans with 11 submission victories. Standing at 6’3″ with a 76″ reach, the Philadelphia native has shown the ability to impose his will both standing and on the mat, defending takedowns at an impressive 83% rate while landing significant strikes with 53% accuracy. His latest performance—a first-round knockout of Michel Pereira on August 23—reinforced his growing reputation as a dynamic finisher capable of turning the tide in mere seconds.

On the opposite side of the Octagon stands 37-year-old veteran Gerald Meerschaert, a submission specialist with 29 career tapouts and a 37–20 ledger. Hailing from Racine, WI, “GM3” enters on the heels of a three-fight skid, including back-to-back losses to Reinier De Ridder (submission) and Brad Tavares (unanimous decision). With a 45% striking accuracy and only 30% takedown success rate, Meerschaert will need to capitalize on his renowned ground game early—he has finished 15 fights in the opening round—but he must also shore up takedown defense (43%) against a wrestler of Daukaus’s caliber.

What’s at Stake

• Momentum: Daukaus is carving out a path toward Top 15 contention with his recent highlight-reel finish. A victory here would cement his status as a rising force in the 185 lb division.
• Redemption: Meerschaert, a finisher who once boasted first-round submission prowess, looks to snap his three-fight losing streak and remind fans why he remains one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division.

As fight night approaches, the matchup promises a classic striker-versus-grappler narrative. Will Daukaus’s wrestling dominance neutralize Meerschaert’s deadly jiu-jitsu, or will “GM3” reestablish himself as one of the UFC’s most feared submission artists? Stay tuned to UFC 322’s Early Prelims on November 15—this bout could end just as swiftly as it begins.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kyle Daukaus vs Gerald Meerschaert can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Kyle Daukaus Profile

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Grappling-heavy, submission specialist

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Aug. 23, 2025: Win vs. Michel Pereira (KO/TKO, R1 0:43)
• Dec. 3, 2022: Loss vs. Eryk Anders (KO/TKO, R2 2:45)
• June 18, 2022: Loss vs. Roman Dolidze (KO/TKO, R1 1:13)
• Feb. 19, 2022: Win vs. Jamie Pickett (Submission, R1 4:59)
• Oct. 2, 2021: Loss vs. Kevin Holland (“Other,” R1 3:43)

Kyle Daukaus returns after a three-year layoff off the back of a highlight-reel 43-second knockout of Michel Pereira. His UFC ledger stands at 16–4, with 11 submission victories and just one KO win prior to Pereira. While Daukaus has shown vulnerability to heavy hitters—three of his four career losses came via strikes—his wrestling base and takedown defense (83%) remain elite attributes.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Takedown Defense (83%): Among the best in the division, stifles opponent grapplers.
  • Submission Prowess: 11 of 16 wins via submission; excels in front-headlock and arm-triangle scenarios.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy (53%): Efficient striking, picks his spots well when setting up takedowns.
• Weaknesses:
  • Striking Defense (43%): Susceptible to clean shots, has been stopped by strikes three times.
  • Takedown Offense (26%): Below-average in securing takedowns compared to other top grapplers.
  • Ring Rust Concerns: Lengthy absence from Octagon competition may affect timing and cardio.

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Gerald Meerschaert Profile

Age: 37
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle grappling with high submission IQ

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Aug. 16, 2025: Loss vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Decision)
• Apr. 5, 2025: Loss vs. Brad Tavares (Decision – Unanimous)
• Nov. 9, 2024: Loss vs. Reinier De Ridder (Submission, R3 1:44)
• Aug. 24, 2024: Win vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Submission, R2 4:12)
• Mar. 16, 2024: Win vs. Bryan Barberena (Submission, R2 4:23)

“GM3” enters UFC 322 on a two-fight winning streak snapped by three consecutive defeats. At 37 years old, Meerschaert’s experience shows in his 29 submission victories out of 37 career wins, but recent setbacks highlight challenges in dealing with well-rounded and physically imposing opponents.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Submission Finishes (29): Deadly from back control, triangle chokes, guillotines, and leg locks—capable of ending fights in a flash.
  • Significant Strike Defense (54%): Better than average at avoiding damage in stand-up exchanges.
  • First-Round Finishes (15): Fast starter who hunts submissions immediately.
• Weaknesses:
  • Takedown Defense (43%): Struggles against high-level wrestlers; often forced to fight off his back.
  • Takedown Offense (30%): Not a natural wrestler; relies on scrambles rather than dominant entries.
  • Durability vs. Power Strikers: Has been knocked out or TKO’d six times in losses, indicating a chin vulnerability against heavy hitters.

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How They Match Up

This bout presents a classic contrast: Daukaus’s suffocating wrestling vs. Meerschaert’s world-class submission game. Daukaus must stay on his feet long enough to land takedowns, neutralize Meerschaert’s jiu-jitsu, and control top position. Conversely, Meerschaert’s best path to victory is to bait takedown attempts, scramble back to his feet, or threaten submissions off his back if taken down. The victor will be determined by who can impose their grappling specialty while minimizing exposure to the other’s strongest skill set.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, the sportsbooks have installed Kyle Daukaus as a heavy favorite over Gerald Meerschaert in this middleweight showdown:

• Kyle Daukaus:

  • BetOnline.ag: –345
  • Bovada: –360

• Gerald Meerschaert:

  • BetOnline.ag: +285
  • Bovada: +280

This spread of roughly 630 points between the two fighters underscores the market’s belief that Daukaus will control the pace via takedowns and mat wrestling, while Meerschaert must land a highlight-reel submission or find success in scramble exchanges to pull off the upset.

Line Movement History

Examining recent line shifts reveals steady backing of the favorite and growing returns on the underdog ticket:

• BetOnline.ag

  • Kyle Daukaus: Opened at –260 on Nov. 1, dipped to –280, then –310, and now sits at –345.
  • Gerald Meerschaert: Started at +220, climbed through +240 and +260, reaching +285 today.

• Bovada

  • Kyle Daukaus: Varied between –270/–285 in early November before sharp moves to –360.
  • Gerald Meerschaert: Oscillated between +220 and +235 before a jump up to +280.

These swings (Daukaus moving roughly 85 cents in favor; Meerschaert moving 65 cents against) indicate significant early money on the Philadelphia grappler—and dwindling value on a late-career veteran who needs a miracle finish.

Best Sportsbook to Bet

If you’re hunting for the optimal line:

• Underdog bettors: BetOnline.ag offers the loftier +285 on Meerschaert versus +280 at Bovada.
• Favorite bettors: BetOnline.ag again holds the leanest juice at –345, compared to –360 at Bovada.

Whether you’re buying points or collecting profit, BetOnline.ag currently delivers the most favorable terms for both sides of this matchup.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet Payout & Implied Chances

Putting down a four-figure wager illustrates each fighter’s potential return and market-implied likelihood of victory:

• Wager $1,000 on Gerald Meerschaert at +285:

  • Profit: Approximately $2,850
  • Total Return: About $3,850

• Wager $1,000 on Kyle Daukaus at –345:

  • Profit: Approximately $290
  • Total Return: About $1,290

Those figures translate to implied win probabilities of roughly 26% for Meerschaert and 78% for Daukaus—numbers that highlight how the betting public and sharp action see a dominant grappling specialist in Daukaus versus a veteran finisher who has to thread the needle.