Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa fight analysis
Event: UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen (Preliminary Card)
Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025 · 1:00 PM PT / 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Weight Class: Women’s Bantamweight (135 lb)
Introduction
On Saturday afternoon at the iconic Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada, fight fans will tune in for what promises to be an intriguing women’s bantamweight showdown between Tainara Lisboa and Melissa Croden. Slotted on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen, this bout kicks off at 1:00 PM PT (4:00 PM ET) and sets the tone for an action-packed evening of mixed martial arts. With Lisboa opening as a solid -155 favorite on the moneyline and Croden stepping in as the +135 underdog, oddsmakers are firmly backing the Brazilian submission specialist to handle business—but Croden’s hunger, hometown support and debut swagger could make this one a sleeper pick for savvy bettors.
Why This Fight Matters
- Depth of the Bantamweight Division: Both athletes are vying to establish themselves in one of the UFC’s most competitive women’s divisions. A win here could accelerate a climb toward the top-15 rankings.
- Contrast in Experience: Lisboa enters with a respectable 7-3 record inside the Octagon, showcasing three knockouts, three submissions and four first-round finishes. Croden, by contrast, makes her UFC debut on home soil—an opportunity to announce herself on a global stage.
- Momentum and Redemption: After a razor-tight second-round submission loss to Luana Santos in May 2025, Lisboa aims to shake off any rust and prove she belongs in high-stakes matchups. Croden’s debut card presence and the roar of a Canadian crowd present the perfect backdrop for an upset.
The Odds: Favorite vs. Underdog
- Tainara Lisboa (Favorite, -155):
• Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with 36% takedown accuracy and 58% takedown defense
• 43% significant strike accuracy and a willingness to mix striking with grappling
• Four first-round finishes in ten professional bouts - Melissa Croden (Underdog, +135):
• Making her UFC and professional debut after extensive regional success
• Will fight with the confidence of a 34-year-old veteran, albeit with zero UFC rounds under her belt
• Home-field advantage in Vancouver could sway momentum early
While Lisboa’s experience and finishing ability make her the logical pick, Croden’s status as the hometown hopeful and her untested gas tank in the Octagon add intrigue. Bettors should note that Lisboa’s odds have shifted from -110 to -155 since opening, indicating growing confidence from sportsbooks, whereas Croden’s line has eased slightly from +110 to +135.
As we build into our full breakdown—covering style matchups, key metrics, recent form and tactical analysis—this introduction lays the groundwork for why Lisboa vs. Croden could emerge as one of the most compelling prelims on October 18. Whether you’re siding with the established favorite or banking on the ambitious debutant, this fight is poised to deliver fireworks in Vancouver.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for de Ridder vs Allen can be found on the de Ridder vs Allen event page.
Matchup and Individual Profiles
Tainara Lisboa Profile
Age: 34
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
Recent Form
- May 17, 2025 – Loss vs. Luana Santos (Submission, R2 4:59)
- Oct. 14, 2023 – Win vs. Ravena Oliveira (Unanimous Decision, 3 Rds)
- May 13, 2023 – Win vs. Jessica Rose Clark (Submission, R3 4:20)
Lisboa enters this bout with a 7-3 professional record and four first-round finishes. After rattling off back-to-back wins—one by submission and one by decision—she suffered a narrow second-round arm-triangle defeat to Luana Santos in her most recent outing.
Strengths
• High Finishing Rate: Six finishes in ten fights (3 KOs, 3 submissions) and 4 first-round stoppages.
• Grappling Prowess: 36% takedown accuracy and a robust 58% takedown defense underscore her BJJ pedigree.
• Balanced Striking: 43% significant strike accuracy combined with 49% strike defense allows her to both land and evade.
• Cardio for Deep Fights: An average fight time of 13:06 suggests she can maintain output late into decisions if unable to secure early stops.
Weaknesses
• Strike Defense Gaps: With only a 49% significant strike defense rate, she can be tagged by powerful strikers.
• Moderate Takedown Production: A 36% takedown success rate is solid, but not elite—susceptible against high-level wrestlers.
• Decision Susceptibility: Two decision wins hint that opponents who avoid early danger can drag her into longer fights.
Melissa Croden Profile
Age: 34
Country: Canada
Fighting Style: (Undisclosed) – Balanced Regional Background
Recent Form
• UFC Debut: Oct. 18, 2025 vs. Tainara Lisboa
• Professional Record: 0-0 (no UFC or documented professional bouts)
Croden makes her UFC and professional debut on home soil. While official UFC records show no prior fights, reports from Canada’s regional circuits indicate she holds victories under various local promotions, showcasing a mix of striking and grappling.
Strengths
• Home-Field Advantage: Fighting in Vancouver at Rogers Arena, she can draw energy from the crowd and diminish travel fatigue.
• Age and Maturity: At 34, Croden brings veteran-level composure—even in a debut.
• Element of Surprise: Opponents lack footage and advanced scouting reports, making her style difficult to prepare for.
Weaknesses
• UFC Inexperience: Zero Octagon rounds leaves questions about composure under bright lights and pace management.
• Unknown Statistical Profile: With no recorded significant strike or takedown data, bettors can’t pinpoint her core strengths or defensive lapses.
• Gas-Tank Uncertainty: Without average fight-time metrics, it’s unclear how she will fare beyond the opening frame.
Head-to-Head Outlook
This matchup contrasts Lisboa’s proven finisher and well-documented metrics against Croden’s mystery skill set and hometown momentum. Lisboa’s balanced striking and grappling arsenal make her the safer pick on paper, but Croden’s debut unpredictability and crowd support could fuel a memorable upset. As these two square off, expect Lisboa to push a grappling‐heavy pace, while Croden will aim to capitalize on striking opportunities and the electric Canadian crowd behind her.
Betting Odds & Line Movement
Current Betting Odds
- Tainara Lisboa (Favorite): –155
- Melissa Croden (Underdog): +135
As of the latest update from BetOnline.ag, Tainara Lisboa is installed as the clear favorite at –155, while Melissa Croden sits on the other side of the ticket at +135. The +135 line makes Croden the underdog, offering a larger payout for risk-takers willing to back the Canadian debutant.
Line Movement & Market Reaction
- Opening Lines (Oct. 9, 2025): Both fighters opened at –110.
- Current Lines (Oct. 10, 2025): Lisboa moved from –110 to –155; Croden shifted from +110 to +135.
This swing indicates growing confidence in Lisboa’s chances. The move from –110 to –155 is a notable shift, suggesting heavy action—and possibly sharp money—favors the Brazilian submission artist. Conversely, Croden’s line drifting from +110 to +135 shows the market assigning her a longer shot, though still tempting for those seeking value on the home-town entrant.
Best Sportsbook to Bet On
Among the major online sportsbooks, BetOnline.ag consistently posts some of the most competitive lines on UFC events. Their odds for Lisboa and Croden reflect early market movements, and their affiliate link delivers the opening prices before significant line shifts occur. Bettors looking to lock in –155 on Lisboa or +135 on Croden will find BetOnline.ag hard to beat.
Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet
- If Lisboa Wins (–155):
• Profit: $645
• Total Return: $1,645 - If Croden Wins (+135):
• Profit: $1,350
• Total Return: $2,350
Dropping $1,000 on Lisboa yields a solid return of $1,645, reflecting a safer but slimmer margin. In contrast, a $1,000 wager on Croden would return $2,350, rewarding those who believe the underdog can shock the crowd in Vancouver.
Implied Probabilities
- Tainara Lisboa: ~61% implied win probability
- Melissa Croden: ~42% implied win probability
While implied probabilities don’t guarantee outcomes, they help bettors gauge where the sharp money is flowing. Lisboa’s ~61% suggests the market strongly favors her grappling and finishing résumé, whereas Croden’s ~42% implies an underdog play with upside for a big payday.
What This Means for Bettors
• Value Hunting: The shift to +135 on Croden may attract bettors who believe her debut hype and hometown support are underappreciated.
• Risk Management: Backing Lisboa at –155 represents the safer play—especially given her proven 7-3 record, six finishes and resilient takedown defense.
• Timing Your Bet: Early bettors who grabbed Lisboa at –110 locked in a more favorable price before sharp money pushed the line. Those still undecided should monitor any further swings in the 24 hours leading up to the fight.
Whether you back the Brazilian grappling specialist or the local Canadian hopeful, understanding these odds and their movement is crucial. Use BetOnline.ag for competitive pricing, watch for late cash flows, and decide if you prefer the steady favorite or the high-upside underdog in this intriguing Women’s Bantamweight clash.
AI Pick: Tainara Lisboa
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Tainara Lisboa, or see all the AI picks for de Ridder vs Allen. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
