UFC 320: Soriano vs Veretennikov Odds, Analysis & Pick

Punahele Soriano vs Nikolay Veretennikov fight analysis

Introduction

Welcome to our comprehensive breakdown of the Welterweight clash between Punahele Soriano and Nikolay Veretennikov, set to open the Early Preliminary Card at UFC 320: Ankalaev vs Pereira 2. This bout will take place on Saturday, October 4, 2025, with the first bell scheduled for 10:00 PM ET at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. As fight fans prepare for an action-packed night, all eyes will be on this intriguing matchup that pits the powerful American striker against the battle-tested Sambo specialist from Kazakhstan.

Event Details

• Date: October 4, 2025
• Time: 10:00 PM ET (Early Preliminary Card)
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Event: UFC 320: Ankalaev vs Pereira 2

Betting Outlook

In the current betting market, Punahele Soriano enters as the consensus -220 favorite (implied probability ~68.8%), backed by strong power, a 56% takedown accuracy, and an impressive first-round finishing rate of over 35%. Soriano’s resume (11-4-0) boasts seven knockouts and two submissions, and he’s coming off a lightning‐fast 31-second TKO victory over Uros Medic in January 2025.

On the other side, Nikolay Veretennikov is pegged as the +185 underdog (implied probability ~35.1%), bringing a 13-6-0 record, nine knockouts, and a sambo‐based grappling pedigree to the Octagon. Despite recent setbacks against Austin Vanderford (KO loss) and Danny Barlow (decision defeat), Veretennikov’s 47% significant strike defense and 63% takedown defense hint at his durability and ability to weather early storms.

With such contrasting styles—Soriano’s aggressive MMA approach and Veretennikov’s sambo foundation—this fight has all the makings of a tactical chess match punctuated by explosive exchanges. Will Soriano assert his striking dominance and keep the action standing, or can Veretennikov impose his grappling game and frustrate the heavy hitter?

Throughout this preview, we’ll dive deep into each fighter’s recent performances, stylistic strengths, and historical trends to help you make an informed pick. Whether you’re backing the favorite to continue his ascent or hunting value on the underdog’s rebound, our fight analysis will equip you with the key data and expert insights you need. Stay tuned as we explore fight metrics, historical head-to-head tendencies, and scenario‐based betting angles for Soriano vs Veretennikov—one of UFC 320’s most intriguing bouts before the main card even begins.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Punahele Soriano vs Nikolay Veretennikov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 can be found on the Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Punahele Soriano: The Powerful Finisher

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Well‐rounded MMA striker with strong wrestling entries

Recent Form

• Win vs Uros Medic (TKO – Round 1, 0:31) on Jan. 11, 2025
• Win vs Miguel Baeza (Decision – Unanimous) on Jun. 8, 2024
• Loss vs Dustin Stoltzfus (Submission – Round 2, 4:10) on Dec. 2, 2023
• Loss vs Roman Kopylov (KO/TKO – Round 2, 3:19) on Jan. 14, 2023
• Win vs Dalcha Lungiambula (KO/TKO – Round 2, 0:28) on Jul. 16, 2022

Strengths

• Finishing Ability: Boasts 7 knockouts and 2 submissions; 8 first‐round finishes showcase explosive power and killer instinct early in fights.
• Takedown Offense: 56% takedown accuracy allows him to mix striking with level changes, keeping opponents guessing.
• Striking Efficiency: 54% significant strike accuracy means the majority of his punches and kicks land cleanly.
• Pace and Aggression: Average fight time of 9:09 indicates he pushes the action and looks to end bouts before deep waters.

Vulnerabilities

• Takedown Defense: Just 38% takedown defense; opponents with strong wrestling or grappling backgrounds can exploit this by dragging him to the mat.
• Defense Under Pressure: 48% significant strike defense suggests he can be hit more than half the strikes thrown at him, leaving him open during exchanges.

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Nikolay Veretennikov: The Sambo Specialist

Age: 35
Country: Kazakhstan (born in Ukraine)
Fighting Style: Sambo‐based grappler with knockout power

Recent Form

• Win vs Francisco Prado (Decision – Split) on Jul. 19, 2025
• Loss vs Austin Vanderford (KO/TKO – Round 2, 4:13) on Feb. 22, 2025
• Loss vs Danny Barlow (Decision) on Aug. 10, 2024
• Win vs Early‐career opponent (KO) prior to UFC debut
• Additional UFC debut Aug. 10, 2024 (came up short vs Barlow)

Strengths

• Grappling Defense: 63% takedown defense shows he can keep the fight vertical against pressure, especially when under fire.
• Durability: 47% significant strike defense and nine career knockouts indicate he can both absorb and deliver power shots.
• Cardio and Endurance: Average fight time of 13:33 suggests he can maintain output for longer scraps and capitalize late.

Vulnerabilities

• Takedown Offense: 18% takedown accuracy leaves him less dangerous on the mat—he relies on scrambles and clinch work rather than controlling top position.
• Decision Losses: Two of his last three UFC bouts went to the judges, and he came up one point short twice, hinting at struggles to dominate rounds.

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Head-to-Head Matchup Breakdown

This clash will pit Soriano’s aggressive striking and takedown prowess against Veretennikov’s sambo defense and durability. Soriano’s superior takedown accuracy (56% vs 18%) and finishing rate make him the favorite to impose a mixed‐martial‐arts game plan, mixing heavy hands with level changes. However, Veretennikov’s 63% takedown defense could frustrate Soriano’s wrestling attempts and turn this into a striking battle—or into a tense clinch war where the Kazakh stands tall.

If Soriano can exploit Veretennikov’s 47–48% striking defense by pressuring him early and landing power shots, he could secure an early finish. On the flip side, if Veretennikov weathers the early storm—using footwork, counterstrikes, and his sambo base to nullify takedowns—he may drag Soriano into deeper waters where his cardio and clutch grappling give him a late‐fight edge.

In summary, Soriano brings explosive offense and aggressiveness but must shore up defensive lapses, while Veretennikov relies on resilience and grappling defense but needs to convert his durability into effective offense. This stylistic contrast makes their showdown a compelling chess match of power vs. persistence, timing vs. tenacity.

Odds and Line Movement Breakdown

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Punahele Soriano is the clear favorite across all major sportsbooks, while Nikolay Veretennikov carries underdog status. Here’s how the head-to-head lines stack up:

• Punahele Soriano

  • BetOnline.ag: -220
  • Caesars: -220
  • BetMGM: -220
  • DraftKings: -218 (most bettor-friendly for Soriano backers)
  • FanDuel: -235
  • BetRivers: -230

• Nikolay Veretennikov

  • BetOnline.ag: +185 (best underdog value)
  • Caesars: +180
  • BetMGM: +180
  • DraftKings: +180
  • FanDuel: +180
  • BetRivers: +180

That gap—roughly 400 points between favorite and underdog—reflects the market’s confidence in Soriano’s finishing power and wrestling mix versus Veretennikov’s durability and Sambo base.

Line Movement and History

A closer look at the odds history reveals notable swings over the past ten days:

• On September 16 at BetOnline.ag, Soriano opened at -300, while Veretennikov was +250.
• By September 26, Soriano’s line softened to -220 (a 26.7% move into the bettor), and Veretennikov improved to +185 (a 26% swing for underdog backers).

This substantial movement suggests significant money poured in on Veretennikov and a fair amount of action taking Soriano off a steeper price. Nonetheless, the consensus still favors Soriano, albeit at a more modest clip.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• If you want to back Punahele Soriano, DraftKings’ -218 line is the tightest favorite price available, offering slightly better return on your risk than -220 or -235 elsewhere.
• If you’re hunting for underdog value with Nikolay Veretennikov, BetOnline.ag’s +185 is the top dog price in the market—better than the +180 you’ll find at Caesars, BetMGM, FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetRivers.

Potential Payout and Implied Probability

Imagine you’re ready to lay down $1,000 on either fighter:

• Bet $1,000 on Soriano at -220
  You would pocket $454 in profit (total return of $1,454) if he wins. His current line implies about a 69% chance to walk away victorious.

• Bet $1,000 on Veretennikov at +185
  You would take home $1,850 in profit (total return of $2,850) if he pulls off the upset. His line implies roughly a 35% shot at victory.

Whether you’re looking to lock in a safer play on the favorite or chase the payout on a gritty underdog, understanding these line movements and price differentials can help you squeeze out extra value. As the early prelims draw closer, keep an eye on any late shifts—especially if heavy action hits one side or public sentiment swings after weigh-ins or final media appearances. Good luck!