Yanez vs. Quinonez UFC Betting Odds & Analysis

Adrian Yanez vs Cristian Quinonez Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, November 8, 2025, fight fans will tune in to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, as the Bantamweight contenders Adrian Yanez and Cristian Quinonez square off on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown. The live broadcast kicks off at 9:00 PM PT, and this eight-man slate is stacked with high-paced stand-up battles and scrappy grappling exchanges. Among those early-evening matchups, the clash between Yanez and Quinonez promises fireworks, pitting two powerful strikers against one another in what could quickly become a contender for “Fight of the Night.”

When and Where

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown
• Date: Saturday, November 8, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM PT (Preliminary Card)
• Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Broadcast: UFC Fight Pass (Prelims), ESPN/ESPN+ (Main Card follow-up)

With the UFC Apex’s intimate environment and world-class production, every punch, kick, and takedown is magnified for fans watching at home and those in attendance. The venue’s centralized Octagon and state-of-the-art lighting lend themselves to crisp visuals and commentary, ensuring that neither fighter’s arsenal goes unnoticed.

Favorite vs. Underdog

As the fight approaches, bookmakers have installed Adrian Yanez as the clear favorite, offering odds of -185 (Bovada, BetOnline.ag) to -205 (FanDuel). Yanez’s combination of volume striking, knockout power, and dynamic boxing fundamentals have earned him a reputation as one of the UFC’s most exciting Bantamweights. Armed with an 11-KO tally in his 17-win career and a crisp 42% significant strike accuracy, Yanez is expected to dictate range, pace, and timing.

On the other side of the Octagon, Cristian Quinonez arrives as the underdog, listed at +158 (FanDuel) to +160 (Bovada, BetOnline.ag). Quinonez, a 27-year-old dynamic Jiu-Jitsu specialist from Tlaltenango, Mexico, holds an 18-5 record with 10 knockouts and three submissions. Though he has fallen back-to-back via submission in his two most recent UFC outings, Quinonez’s resilience, takedown accuracy (38%), and first-round finishing ability (five stoppages) make him a dangerous foe—particularly if he can bring the fight to the mat and exploit any defensive gaps in Yanez’s ground game.

What to Expect

Expect a high-octane striking battle early, as both men boast punishing punches and an eagerness to finish fights before the final horn. Yanez will look to establish his jab, mix in punishing leg kicks, and follow up on any openings with heavy combinations. Quinonez, however, has shown improved striking defense (55%) and will likely counter with low kicks and sharp counters to keep Yanez honest. If the stand-up contest stalls, Quinonez may shoot for takedowns—leaning on his 84% takedown defense to reverse position or advance into submissions.

In this Bantamweight shoot-out, the lines are drawn: Adrian Yanez seeks to extend his highlight-reel streak and climb the divisional ladder, while Cristian Quinonez aims to shock the odds-makers and reignite his UFC trajectory. Whether you’re backing the favorite to land the knockout blow or riding the underdog to a grappling upset, this bout is guaranteed to deliver non-stop action.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Adrian Yanez vs Cristian Quinonez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Adrian Yanez: The Texan Power-Puncher

Background

• Age: 31
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Boxer
• Height: 67 in | Reach: 70 in
• UFC Debut: October 31, 2020

Hailing from Galveston, Texas, Adrian Yanez has quickly become one of the most feared knockout artists in the Bantamweight division. A pure boxer with polished footwork, crisp combinations, and a devastating overhand right, Yanez relies on his striking pedigree to overwhelm opponents early. He trains at Fortis MMA alongside fellow finishing specialists, sharpening his head-movement and heavy hands to land fight-ending blows.

Recent Form

Adrian Yanez enters this bout with a 17-6 professional record. His last five outings:

1. December 14, 2024: Loss (Split Decision) vs. Daniel Marcos
2. May 18, 2024: Win (KO/TKO) vs. Vinicius Salvador
3. October 14, 2023: Loss (KO/TKO) vs. Jonathan Martinez
4. April 8, 2023: Loss (KO/TKO) vs. Rob Font
5. June 18, 2022: Win (KO/TKO) vs. Tony Kelley

Though Yanez boasts seven first-round finishes in the UFC, he’s dropped three of his last four decisions—often via big shots from opponents who can weather his early storm. His resilience and willingness to press forward have won him highlight-reel knockouts, but they have also left him vulnerable to counterstrikes.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Knockout Power: 11 career KO/TKOs (65% of wins)
• Striking Accuracy: 42% significant strike accuracy
• Volume & Pace: Averages 6:48 per fight—he pushes a high pace from the opening bell
• Defensive Footwork: 55% sig-strike defense, making him elusive in exchanges

Weaknesses:

• One-Dimensional Offense: 0% takedown accuracy; rarely mixes wrestling into his attack
• Chin Concerns: Three recent KO/TKO losses suggest vulnerability when opponents land clean shots
• Cardio in Deep Rounds: Tends to slow after the first two frames, which can open him up in later rounds

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Cristian Quinonez: The Mexican Grappling Threat

Background

• Age: 27
• Country: Mexico
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
• Height: 68 in | Reach: 70 in
• UFC Debut: September 3, 2022

Born in Tlaltenango, Mexico, Cristian Quinonez is a dynamic finisher with a balanced skill set. A brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, he’s just as comfortable hunting submissions on the mat as he is unloading heavy punches on the feet. Training out of Team Elevation, Quinonez emphasizes transitions—threatening takedowns to create striking openings and vice versa.

Recent Form

Quinonez holds an 18-5 pro record, with his last three UFC bouts:

1. February 24, 2024: Loss (Submission) vs. Raoni Barcelos
2. June 17, 2023: Loss (Submission) vs. Kyung Ho Kang
3. September 3, 2022: Win (KO/TKO) vs. Khalid Taha

After a thrilling debut knockout, Quinonez has dropped back-to-back fights via submission, exposing gaps in his defensive grappling against elite foes. Despite recent setbacks, his willingness to engage makes him a risky underdog.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Finishing Versatility: 10 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions showcase his dual-threat nature
• Takedown Defense: 84% success defending takedowns—he can keep the fight standing if he chooses
• First-Round Stoppages: Five finishes inside five minutes, indicating explosiveness early
• Balanced Striking: 40% significant strike accuracy with competent 55% sig-strike defense

Weaknesses:

• Submission Defense: Two consecutive losses by submission underscore lapses in positional awareness
• Endurance: Average fight time of 8:11 suggests he can fade if the pace drags into deep waters
• Inconsistency in Pressure: Can be outworked by high-volume strikers who neutralize his entries

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This clash pits Yanez’s explosive boxing against Quinonez’s all-around finishing arsenal. Yanez will look to dictate range with his jab and power shots, while Quinonez will aim to mix takedowns, sharp counters, and submission entries to derail the Texan’s stride. Both fighters bring red-hot power—expect a frenetic opening salvo as styles collide in the Octagon.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, the sportsbooks have installed Adrian Yanez as the clear favorite and Cristian Quinonez as the underdog. Here’s a snapshot of the current head-to-head lines across major books:

• Adrian Yanez (Favorite)

  • Bovada: –185
  • BetOnline.ag: –185
  • FanDuel: –205

• Cristian Quinonez (Underdog)

  • Bovada: +160
  • BetOnline.ag: +160
  • FanDuel: +158

The gap between the two fighters is stark: you must risk $185 at Bovada or BetOnline.ag to win $100 backing Yanez, whereas a $100 wager on Quinonez at those same books would net you $160 if he pulls off the upset. FanDuel’s lines sit slightly in Yanez’s favor (–205) and against Quinonez (+158), making Bovada and BetOnline.ag the optimal sportsbooks for both sides of this matchup.

Line Movement & Trends

Since the odds first dropped for this Bantamweight clash, the betting lines have remained remarkably stable.

• Yanez opened around –185 at Bovada/BetOnline.ag and has held that line, suggesting balanced action on both sides or steady confidence in the favorite.
• Quinonez has hovered at +160 (Bovada/BetOnline.ag) with only a minor shift to +158 at FanDuel, indicating there’s been no major influx of underdog money forcing lines wider.

This lack of significant swings tells us that sharp bettors and casual fans alike have largely agreed on the expected outcome. It also suggests there haven’t been late-breaking injuries, media revelations, or public campaign surges strong enough to move the market.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re sizing up a $1,000 wager, here’s what you can expect:

• Bet $1,000 on Adrian Yanez at –185 (Bovada/BetOnline.ag)

  • Profit: $540.54
  • Total Return: $1,540.54

• Bet $1,000 on Adrian Yanez at –205 (FanDuel)

  • Profit: $487.80
  • Total Return: $1,487.80

• Bet $1,000 on Cristian Quinonez at +160 (Bovada/BetOnline.ag)

  • Profit: $1,600
  • Total Return: $2,600

• Bet $1,000 on Cristian Quinonez at +158 (FanDuel)

  • Profit: $1,580
  • Total Return: $2,580

Translated into win probabilities, the books imply that Adrian Yanez has roughly a 65% chance to win, while Cristian Quinonez sits near 38%. While these percentages are estimates, they reflect the consensus that Yanez’s polished boxing and finishing power give him the edge—but Quinonez’s finishing versatility still makes him a live dog for bettors chasing a bigger payout.

Best Betting Strategy

• For riders backing Adrian Yanez, lock in the –185 line at Bovada or BetOnline.ag to maximize your return.
• For those rooting for the upset, grab that +160 underdog price at Bovada or BetOnline.ag before any late money nudges it down.

With the lines locked in and showing no major movement, now is the time to decide where you stand: on the heavy hands of Yanez or the grappling threats of Quinonez. Whichever side you choose, make sure you shop the lines—and if you’re chasing value, Bovada and BetOnline.ag remain your best bet.