Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown: Odds, AI Pick & Analysis

Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown fight analysis

Fight Overview

The welterweight showdown between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown is set to light up the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, November 8, 2025. Slated for the Main Card of UFC Fight Night, the contest is expected to kick off around 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Two stylistically contrasting fighters will clash in a pivotal matchup that could have significant repercussions on the 170-pound rankings—and on your betting ticket.

Event Details

• Date: Saturday, November 8, 2025
• Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
• Card: Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown
• Broadcast: ESPN+ (United States), UFC Fight Pass (International)

This bout anchors a six-fight main card that showcases rising contenders and seasoned veterans alike. While the headliner may grab top billing, Bonfim vs Brown promises fireworks of its own, featuring two athletes who bring contrasting strengths—Brazilian grappling prowess versus Jamaican power and pace—to the Octagon.

Betting Odds & Key Storylines

Gabriel Bonfim enters this bout as the -152 favorite on BetOnline.ag and -155 on Bovada, reflecting both his stellar 18–1 professional record and his ferocious submission arsenal (13 of his 18 wins have come by submission). As the UFC’s No. 14-ranked welterweight, Bonfim has rattled off three consecutive victories, including a controversial split-decision win over former title challenger Stephen Thompson this past July. Despite his relatively recent arrival in the Octagon (debuting January 2023), the 27-year-old Brazilian has already carved out a reputation as one of the division’s most technical grapplers.

On the other side of the ledger, Randy Brown comes into Las Vegas as the +132 underdog on BetOnline.ag and +133 on Bovada. The Jamaican-born veteran (20–6) is on a three-fight win streak, capped by a second-round TKO of Nicolas Dalby in April. Known for his heavy hands and crippling leg kicks, Brown has earned 8 knockout victories and controls the pocket with 47% significant striking accuracy while defending 55% of incoming power shots. At 34 years old, Brown’s experience—and his unyielding pace—could pose problems for a grappler who hasn’t yet faced an opponent with as refined a striking base.

Why This Fight Matters

• Styles Make Fights: Bonfim’s 56% takedown accuracy threatens to drag Brown into deep waters, but Brown’s takedown defense sits at a solid 73%.
• Card Positioning: A win here could launch Bonfim firmly into the divisional Top 10, while Brown is fighting to prove he still belongs among the welterweight elite.
• Betting Implications: The line has shifted modestly in Bonfim’s favor over the past 48 hours, indicating growing confidence from sharp bettors in the Brazilian’s grappling edge.

As the Octagon lights rise, all eyes will be on whether Bonfim can impose his ground game or if Brown’s striking—and veteran savvy—will dictate the pace. Strap in for what promises to be a high-stakes, action-packed clash under the bright lights of the UFC Apex.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Gabriel Bonfim Profile

Age: 27
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Striker (with elite grappling transitions)
Record: 18–1 (3 KOs, 13 submissions)

Recent Form

• July 12, 2025: Split-decision win vs. Stephen Thompson (3 rounds)
• February 15, 2025: Submission win vs. Khaos Williams (Round 2, 4:58)
• July 13, 2024: Unanimous decision win vs. Ange Loosa (3 rounds)
• November 4, 2023: TKO loss vs. Nicolas Dalby (Round 2, 4:33)
• July 29, 2023: Submission win vs. Trevin Giles (Round 1, 1:13)

Bonfim has rattled off three straight victories, demonstrating improved striking and championship-caliber cardio. His lone setback came against Dalby, but since then he’s showcased a refined jab, head movement and the ability to chain strikes into takedowns seamlessly.

Strengths

• Submission Arsenal: 72% of his wins come by submission.
• Takedown Accuracy (56%): Elite entry rate allows him to dictate where the fight takes place.
• Takedown Defense (76%): Difficult to keep down once he elects to strike.
• Strike Defense (63%): Among the top tier of welterweights at avoiding significant strikes.
• First-Round Finishes (8): Strong starter with fast starts.

Weaknesses

• Knockout Power (3 KOs): Lacks one-punch knockout threat compared to power punchers.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (45%): Below the division average for elite strikers.
• Reach Disadvantage: 72.5″ reach vs. Brown’s 78″ could force him to close distance aggressively.

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Randy Brown Profile

Age: 34
Country: Jamaica (fighting out of Rochester, NY)
Fighting Style: Boxer-Wrestler hybrid
Record: 20–6 (8 KOs, 5 submissions)

Recent Form

• April 26, 2025: KO/TKO win vs. Nicolas Dalby (Round 2, 1:39)
• December 7, 2024: Split-decision loss vs. Bryan Battle (3 rounds)
• June 1, 2024: Unanimous decision win vs. Elizeu dos Santos (3 rounds)
• February 3, 2024: KO/TKO win vs. Muslim Salikhov (Round 1, 3:17)
• June 24, 2023: Unanimous decision win vs. Wellington Turman (3 rounds)

Brown is 3-1 in his last four outings, riding momentum from a highlight-reel stoppage of Dalby. He’s sharpened his combinations, leg-kick game and cage control, but remains vulnerable to high-level grapplers.

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 40% of wins by KO/TKO; one-punch and leg-kick stopping power.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (47%): Efficient and precise with his punches.
• Strike Defense (55%): Above average ability to avoid incoming shots.
• Cage Pressure & Pace: Controls distance with heavy straight punches and kicks.
• Experience: UFC veteran since 2016; comfortable five-round tested.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (39%): Struggles to impose wrestling on elite grapplers.
• Submission Game (5 wins): Less comfortable in long grappling exchanges vs. submission specialists.
• Age & Durability: At 34, reflexes may wane against younger, faster opponents.
• Average Fight Time (10:29): Tends to engage in deep waters rather than early finishes.

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Head-to-Head Matchup Insights

• Grappling vs. Striking: Bonfim’s 56% takedown accuracy vs. Brown’s 73% takedown defense—key battle for octagon control.
• Power vs. Technique: Brown’s 8 KOs test Bonfim’s 63% strike defense; Bonfim must avoid the pocket to implement his game plan.
• Cardio & Pace: Bonfim averages sub-eight-minute finishes, whereas Brown often goes deep into the third round. Conditioning and pace strategy will be critical.

This clash of styles—Brazilian submission savant against Jamaican knockout artist—promises to be a chess match of transitions, timing and durability. Bettors should weigh Bonfim’s grappling dominance against Brown’s heavy hands and veteran savvy when placing their wagers.

Odds and Betting History

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, the betting lines for Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown have settled with the Brazilian grappler as the clear favorite and the Jamaican-born striker as the underdog:

• Gabriel Bonfim:

  • BetOnline.ag: -152
  • Bovada: -155

• Randy Brown:

  • BetOnline.ag: +132
  • Bovada: +133

Bonfim’s status as the favorite reflects his dominant 18–1 record and elite submission game, while Brown’s underdog tag pays homage to his upset potential and heavy hands. If you’re targeting the best deal on each fighter today, BetOnline.ag’s -152 on Bonfim represents the juiciest price for the favorite, whereas Bovada’s +133 on Brown yields the highest payout for underdog backers.

Line Movement Analysis

A close look at the 48-hour line movement shows meaningful shifts:

• Bonfim (BetOnline.ag) opened at -145 (10/27) and drifted to -152 (10/28)
• Bonfim (Bovada) jumped from an unlisted opener to -155 (10/28)
• Brown (BetOnline.ag) started at +125 and climbed to +132
• Brown (Bovada) posted +133 on 10/28

These swings—Bonfim dropping seven points and Brown rising eight—signal sharp money on the Brazilian. The market is effectively telling us that bettors respect Bonfim’s grappling edge and recent three-fight win streak enough to pay up juice, squeezing the underdog’s value. If you believe Brown’s knockout power and veteran savvy are ripe for a payday, these inflated underdog lines represent a prime opportunity.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Favorite (Bonfim): BetOnline.ag at -152 is preferable over Bovada’s -155.
• Underdog (Brown): Bovada at +133 is the top choice for maximum upside.

Always check for bonus offers, first-time bettor promotions, and potential early-line boosts—these can further sweeten the deal if you’re locking in your wagers today.

Potential Payout & Implied Probability

Wondering what a $1,000 bet looks like on fight night? Here’s a quick snapshot—no deep math explanation, just the real-world returns and what they suggest about each fighter’s chances:

• $1,000 on Gabriel Bonfim at -152
  • Potential return: $1,658 (including stake)
  • Implied win probability: ~60%

• $1,000 on Randy Brown at +133
  • Potential return: $2,330 (including stake)
  • Implied win probability: ~43%

In simple terms, Bonfim is seen as the three-to-five-favorite, while Brown’s price tag has surging appeal if you expect him to pull off the upset.

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Whether you’re siding with Bonfim’s submission prowess or betting on Brown’s explosive power, understanding these odds, their recent shifts, and the best sportsbook to take action on will help you maximize value. Bet responsibly and enjoy what promises to be a thrilling clash in the welterweight division!