Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint Denis Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

# Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint Denis Fight Breakdown

## Introduction

The highly anticipated **lightweight showdown** between Beneil Dariush and Benoit Saint Denis is set to electrify **Madison Square Garden** in New York City on **Saturday, November 16, 2025**, as part of **UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev**. The bout is slated to begin at **10:00 PM ET** during the **Main Card** broadcast, promising an action-packed evening for fight fans tuning in from around the globe.

In this clash of styles, **Benoit Saint Denis** enters as the **-230 favorite** (Bovada), riding a two-fight winning streak that features back-to-back **submission victories** in Paris. The 29-year-old Frenchman has showcased elite grappling depth since his UFC debut in October 2021, boasting an **11–submission** record and **40% takedown accuracy**. Standing 71 inches tall with a 73-inch reach, Saint Denis leverages his length to close distance and bring opponents to the mat, making him a formidable puzzle for any top-15 lightweight.

Opposite him stands veteran contender **Beneil Dariush**, the +190 underdog whose résumé includes 23 wins across an 11-year UFC tenure. The 36-year-old Iranian-American has proven himself a well-rounded threat, with **8 career submissions**, **5 knockouts**, and a **58% significant strike defense** that ranks among the division’s best. Dariush’s grappling pedigree and fight IQ have carried him to marquee wins over the likes of Tony Ferguson and Mateusz Gamrot, though he enters this matchup off a TKO loss to Renato Moicano at UFC 321.

### Betting Outlook

- **Favorite**: Benoit Saint Denis (-230)  
  • Strengths: Elite submission arsenal, high first-round finish rate (7), 56% significant strike accuracy  
  • Recent Form: 2-0 in 2025, both wins via rear-naked choke in Round 2  

- **Underdog**: Beneil Dariush (+190)  
  • Strengths: Veteran experience, well-rounded striking and wrestling, 82% takedown defense  
  • Recent Form: 0-1 in 2025, has lost three of four since June 2023  

Saint Denis’s early success on the ground has pushed oddsmakers to heavily favor the Frenchman, while Dariush’s seasoned approach and championship-caliber grappling make him a live dog with tremendous upside at +190.

### What’s at Stake

For **Saint Denis**, a third consecutive win would cement his status as a rising force in the lightweight division and move him closer to a top-10 ranking. A victory over Dariush would be his most significant to date, as the American veteran’s résumé dwarfs that of any opponent he has faced.

Dariush, meanwhile, fights to halt a slide that has seen him drop three of his last four bouts. A win would re-establish him as a perennial contender and validate his adaptability against a submission specialist. At 36, Dariush’s path to a title shot depends on victories over ranked opponents like Saint Denis.

With contrasting trajectories, complimentary grappling pedigrees, and high-stakes ramifications for both men, this fight promises to deliver high-octane grappling exchanges, tactical striking battles, and the drama only the UFC’s lightweight division can provide. Whether you back the surging Frenchman or the battle-tested American, **Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint Denis** is a must-watch contest that sets the tone for what could be one of the most compelling cards of 2025.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint Denis can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

# Matchup and Fighter Profiles

## Benoit Saint Denis

**Background**  
- Age: 29  
- Country: France  
- Fighting Style: MMA with a heavy grappling emphasis  
- Height: 71 in | Reach: 73 in  

**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)**  
1. Win vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Submission, R2, 2:56) – Sept. 6, 2025  
2. Win vs. Kyle Prepolec (Submission, R2, 2:35) – May 10, 2025  
3. Loss vs. Renato Moicano (TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, R2, 5:00) – Sept. 28, 2024  
4. Loss vs. Dustin Poirier (KO/TKO, R2, 2:32) – Mar. 9, 2024  
5. Win vs. Matt Frevola (KO/TKO, R1, 1:31) – Nov. 11, 2023  

**Strengths**  
- **Elite Submission Game**: 11 of 15 career wins by submission; high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu transitions.  
- **First-Round Finisher**: 7 first-round stoppages; has explosive starts.  
- **Takedown Offense**: 40% takedown accuracy, often dictates where the fight takes place.  
- **Significant Strike Accuracy**: 56% — lands more than half of his significant strikes, pressuring opponents to defend grappling.  

**Weaknesses**  
- **Striking Defense**: 42% significant strike defense; can be hit with heavy counters when closing distance.  
- **Takedown Defense**: 71% – while respectable, vulnerable to elite wrestlers who mix strikes and takedowns.  
- **Durability Against Power Punchers**: Two of his three UFC losses came by (T)KO in Round 2, suggesting vulnerability when exchanges get wild.  

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## Beneil Dariush

**Background**  
- Age: 36  
- Country: United States (born in Iran)  
- Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with strong wrestling base and evolving striking  
- Height: 70 in | Reach: 72 in  

**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)**  
1. Loss vs. Renato Moicano (Decision, unspecified, UFC 321) – June 28, 2025  
2. Loss vs. Arman Tsarukyan (KO/TKO, R1, 1:04) – Dec. 2, 2023  
3. Loss vs. Charles Oliveira (KO/TKO, R1, 4:10) – June 10, 2023  
4. Win vs. Mateusz Gamrot (Decision – Unanimous, R3, 5:00) – Oct. 22, 2022  
5. Win vs. Tony Ferguson (Decision – Unanimous, R3, 5:00) – May 15, 2021  

**Strengths**  
- **Defensive Grappling**: 82% takedown defense; neutralizes wrestlers and scrambles effectively.  
- **Striking Defense**: 58% significant strike defense, one of the division’s best at negating heavy shots.  
- **Fight IQ & Durability**: Veteran savvy with 23–6–1 record; adapts mid-fight and outworks opponents.  
- **Balanced Finish Game**: 8 submissions and 5 knockouts; capable of ending fights standing or on the mat.  

**Weaknesses**  
- **Declining Power Output**: Only 5 career knockouts over 30 fights; less one-punch KO threat.  
- **Takedown Offense**: 38% accuracy on takedown attempts, below the lightweight average—can struggle to implement wrestling.  
- **Cardio in High Pace Fights**: Average fight time 09:10; tends to fade if pace stays high beyond two rounds.  
- **Recent Knockout Losses**: Three stoppage defeats in last four outings, raising questions about chin and recovery.  

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### Head-to-Head Dynamics

- **Grappling vs. Grappling**: Saint Denis has the submission edge, but Dariush’s takedown defense and scramble ability could frustrate the Frenchman’s offense.  
- **Striking Exchanges**: Dariush is more defensive and technical; Saint Denis pushes the pace and looks to mix heavy strikes with entries to clinch and shoot.  
- **Age & Experience**: Dariush brings over a decade of UFC experience and championship-level sparring, whereas Saint Denis is on a rapid ascent and carries youthful momentum.

This clash of styles and generational trajectories makes **Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint Denis** a tactical chess match with high-level grappling scrambles, striking exchanges, and the potential for explosive finishes on either side.  

# Betting Odds & Line Movement

## Current Betting Odds

- **Benoit Saint-Denis**:  
  • Bovada: **-230**  
  • BetOnline.ag: -225  
- **Beneil Dariush**:  
  • Bovada: **+190**  
  • BetOnline.ag: +190  

As things stand, **Saint-Denis is a clear favorite** at roughly **-230**, meaning he’s priced around a 70% chance to win. **Dariush** sits firmly in the underdog role at **+190**, implying he’s viewed as having about a one-in-three shot to pull off the upset. If you’re shopping lines, **Bovada** currently offers the sharpest prices on both sides (the lowest juice on Saint-Denis and identical +190 on Dariush), making it the top sportsbook for this lightweight tilt.

## Line Movement & Big Swings

Tracking the last week of line movement reveals some interesting shifts:

- **Saint-Denis (BetOnline.ag)**: Opened at **-250** (Oct. 29) and has adjusted to **-225** (Nov. 3).  
- **Dariush (BetOnline.ag)**: Opened at **+210** (Oct. 29) and has tightened to **+190** (Nov. 3).  

These swings tell the story of where the money is flowing. **Sharp bettors** have been backing the underdog, driving Dariush’s price down by 20 cents on the dollar. Simultaneously, the favorite has softened by 25 cents, suggesting a bit of skepticism around Saint-Denis’s ability to handle a veteran grappler like Dariush.

## Betting Payouts & Implied Chances

Let’s say you had **$1,000** to invest:

- Betting **$1,000 on Saint-Denis at -230**  
  • You’d profit about **$435**, collecting roughly **$1,435** back if he wins.  
  • Implied win probability: **~70%**  

- Betting **$1,000 on Dariush at +190**  
  • You’d profit **$1,900**, collecting **$2,900** back if he shocks the favorite.  
  • Implied win probability: **~35%**  

Saint-Denis commands respect for his grappling prowess and submission résumé, hence the steeper price tag. But Dariush’s veteran savvy and stout takedown defense have attracted enough action to narrow his line significantly in recent days.

## Where to Bet

• **Bovada** tops the list for best odds on both sides—especially if you want the best price on Saint-Denis’s juice.  
• **BetOnline.ag** remains competitive, but the slight underdog shift happened faster here, indicating early sharp action.

Whether you side with the surging French grappler or the battle-tested American, understanding the line movement and where to get the sharpest odds will maximize your value on fight night. Good luck, and may your pick cash!