Belal Muhammad vs Ian Garry: UFC Odds, AI Pick & Analysis

Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry Fight Analysis

Introduction

Get ready for an electrifying Welterweight showdown as Belal Muhammad takes on Ian Machado Garry on Saturday, November 22, 2025. This pivotal clash will headline the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker, set to kick off at 18:00 GMT from the state-of-the-art ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. Welterweight fans around the globe will be glued to their screens as these two elite strikers and tacticians collide in a fight that could have major ramifications on the division’s title picture.

Muhammad (24-4-0) arrives as the #1 ranked contender in the Welterweight division and is coming off a hard-fought unanimous decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena in May 2025. The 36-year-old veteran from Chicago brings a methodical, wrestling-heavy approach, backed by elite takedown defense (90%) and an impressive 39% takedown accuracy. His path to this fight includes notable victories over Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, and Sean Brady. Although Muhammad owns just one submission win, his ability to control the pace and neutralize powerful strikers has made him one of the most consistent performers in the weight class.

On the other side stands Ian Machado Garry (16-1-0), the #6 ranked powerhouse from Dublin, Ireland. The 27-year-old phenom has been touted as the next big thing in the Welterweight division, thanks to his explosive striking (54% significant strike accuracy) and solid takedown defense (74%). Garry bounced back in April 2025 with a unanimous decision victory over Carlos Prates, following a setback against the surging Shavkat Rakhmonov in December 2024. With four first–round finishes on his résumé and a relentless forward style, Garry is eager to prove he belongs among the division’s elite.

Odds and Betting Perspective

According to the latest odds compiled from top sportsbooks:

• Ian Machado Garry opens as the favorite at around -180 to -215 (American odds), reflecting strong confidence in his fast-paced striking and youth advantage.
• Belal Muhammad is the underdog at approximately +146 to +170, a testament to Muhammad’s veteran savvy but acknowledgment of Garry’s momentum.

With Muhammad’s proven toughness and championship‐caliber resume versus Garry’s dynamic striking and rising star power, this matchup promises tactical grappling exchanges, high‐volume striking, and drama that could electrify the Main Card. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, this battle between Muhammad’s seasoned pressure and Garry’s explosive offense is a must‐watch—and a potential blueprint for the future title challengers in the Welterweight division.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Fighter Profiles and Matchup Breakdown

Belal Muhammad Profile

Age: 36
Country: United States (Palestine)
Fighting Style: Wrestling-based pressure fighter with well-rounded striking and elite cardio

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• May 10, 2025: Loss – Unanimous Decision vs Jack Della Maddalena
• July 27, 2024: Win – Unanimous Decision vs Leon Edwards
• May 6, 2023: Win – Unanimous Decision vs Gilbert Burns
• October 22, 2022: Win – KO/TKO vs Sean Brady (Round 2, 4:47)
• April 16, 2022: Win – Unanimous Decision vs Vicente Luque

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (90%) – Among the best in the division, difficult to take down and maintain top control
• Cardio & Durability – Averages 15:23 per fight, has never been finished in the UFC
• Pace & Wrestling Pressure – Relentless forward movement, forces opponents into grinding five-round battles
• Significant Strike Defense (56%) – Efficient at avoiding and blocking power shots

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Accuracy (43%) – Striking output is precise but not overwhelming, can struggle to finish fights
• Takedown Offense (39%) – Effective but not elite; may miss opportunities to mix in trips and throws
• Lack of Early Finishes – Zero first-round finishes in UFC tenure, often leaves fights to the judges

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Ian Machado Garry Profile

Age: 27
Country: Ireland
Fighting Style: Aggressive striker with boxing/Muay Thai base, strong clinch work and improving grappling

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• April 26, 2025: Win – Unanimous Decision vs Carlos Prates
• December 7, 2024: Loss – Unanimous Decision vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
• June 29, 2024: Win – Unanimous Decision vs Michael Page
• February 17, 2024: Win – Split Decision vs Geoff Neal
• August 19, 2023: Win – Unanimous Decision vs Neil Magny

Strengths

• Significant Strike Accuracy (54%) – Lands more than half of his power shots, excellent timing and precision
• Explosive Finishing Ability – 7 KOs and 4 first-round finishes; dangerous early when opponents are untested
• Forward Pressure & Pace – Constantly moving, forces opponents to fight back on their heels
• Well-Rounded Grappling – 33% takedown accuracy plus 74% takedown defense, showing growth in clinch and ground exchanges

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense vs Elite Wrestlers (74%) – Vulnerable to top-level grapplers like Muhammad
• Significant Strike Defense (52%) – Can be tagged by heavy hitters, occasionally drops his hands in exchanges
• Experience in Deep Waters – One loss and lack of five-round experience may test his endurance under sustained pressure

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Matchup Dynamics

This fight pits Muhammad’s veteran wrestling mastery against Garry’s youth-driven striking power. Muhammad’s 90% takedown defense and smothering top game will look to neutralize Garry’s high-pace combinations, while Garry will aim to exploit openings with crisp, accurate strikes and early finishes. If Muhammad can drag the fight into deep water, his conditioning and grappling control may wear down the Irishman. Conversely, if Garry keeps the fight standing and maintains distance, his superior striking accuracy and knockout prowess give him the edge. Each fighter’s statistical profile underscores a clear game plan: Muhammad must rough Garry up in the clinch, and Garry must keep the fight at striking range and land heavy shots before the veteran settles in.

Odds and Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As we approach fight night, the moneylines for Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry have settled into a clear favorite–underdog structure:

• Ian Machado Garry (Favorite)

  • BetOnline.ag: –175
  • DraftKings: –180
  • Bovada: –175
  • BetMGM: –190
  • FanDuel: –192
  • BetUS: –175
  • BetRivers: –215

• Belal Muhammad (Underdog)

  • BetRivers: +170
  • BetOnline.ag: +150
  • DraftKings: +150
  • Bovada: +150
  • FanDuel: +148
  • BetMGM: +160
  • BetUS: +146

The gap between the lines (roughly –175 for Garry vs +150 to +170 for Muhammad) underscores the oddsmakers’ confidence in Garry’s youth, dynamic striking, and recent momentum. Muhammad’s status as the division’s veteran #1 contender earns him respect—but his underdog tag reflects concerns over durability against a lightning‐fast Irishman.

Line Movement & Historic Swings

A close look at the opening lines and subsequent adjustments reveals several large swings early in the betting markets:

• Ian Garry

  • BetOnline.ag opened at –200 (Oct. 23), quickly shortened to –155 (Oct. 27), then settled around –175 as sharp money balanced.
  • BetUS saw a roller-coaster from –200 → –156 → –175 → –190 → back to –175 over a two-week span.
  • BetRivers drifted from –175 (Oct. 27) to as long as –195 (Nov. 2) before returning to –215 on some boards.

• Belal Muhammad

  • BetOnline.ag opened at +170 → dropped to +135 (Oct. 27) on heavy action, then rebounded to +150.
  • BetUS fluctuated between +166 → +131 → +146 → +158 in rapid succession, reflecting alternating sharp and public money.
  • BetRivers moved from +138 (Oct. 27) back to +155 (Nov. 2), indicating a late surge of support for the veteran.

These swings demonstrate two things: (1) sharp bettors targeted early lines on both sides—backing the hype around Garry and value on Muhammad—and (2) sportsbooks continually adjusted to balance their books, creating attractive entry points throughout the market cycle.

Best Betting Value

• Favorite (Garry): The most user-friendly line is currently –175 at BetOnline.ag, Bovada, and BetUS.
• Underdog (Muhammad): The best price is +170 at BetRivers.

If you believe Garry’s speed and precision will overwhelm Muhammad, lock in –175. If you expect Belal’s pressure and wrestling to frustrate the Irishman, grab +170 on Muhammad before it tightens further.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet Payouts

• $1,000 on Ian Garry at –175

  • Total Return: $1,571.43 (profit of $571.43)
  • Implied Probability: ~64%

• $1,000 on Belal Muhammad at +170

  • Total Return: $2,700 (profit of $1,700)
  • Implied Probability: ~37%

No matter which side you choose, these odds highlight a clear risk–reward dynamic: Garry is the safer play with lower juice, whereas Muhammad offers a hefty payout if he can execute his veteran game plan.