Bantamweight Preview: Almakhan vs Topuria Odds & AI Pick

Bekzat Almakhan vs Aleksandre Topuria Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, November 22, 2025, the UFC returns to the Middle East with a compelling Bantamweight clash as part of the preliminary card at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. Slated for a 3:00 PM GMT (6:00 PM local) start, this bout opens the night’s action ahead of the headliner Tsarukyan vs Hooker. Two rising prospects—Bekzat Almakhan and Aleksandre Topuria—face off in a matchup that promises fireworks, whether inside the Octagon or on the betting board.

Setting the Stage

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker (Preliminary Card)
• Date & Time: November 22, 2025 • 3:00 PM GMT / 6:00 PM Qatar local
• Venue: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
• Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lb)

Favorite vs. Underdog

According to current BetOnline.ag odds, Bekzat Almakhan enters as the slight favorite at –118, while Aleksandre Topuria lines at –102. Despite both fighters carrying negative moneylines, Almakhan’s impressive knockout resume and faster-pace style have bettors leaning in his favor. Topuria, however, is no easy underdog; his well-rounded skill set and perfect takedown defense make him a live dog capable of pulling off an upset.

Bekzat Almakhan (Favorite, –118)

• Record: 12–2–0
• Finish Rate: 10 of 12 wins by KO/TKO or submission
• UFC Debut: Mar. 2, 2024
• Style: Karate with heavy knockout power
• Age / Hometown: 27, Zhambyl Oblysy, Kazakhstan

Aleksandre Topuria (Underdog, –102)

• Record: 6–1–0
• Finish Rate: 5 of 6 wins in Round 1
• UFC Debut: Feb. 8, 2025
• Style: Boxing with elite striking accuracy and takedown defense
• Age / Hometown: 29, born in Germany, representing Georgia

Key Storylines

1. Finishing Ability vs. Durability

   • Almakhan has amassed 9 KOs across 12 victories, averaging just 8:02 to finish opponents.
   • Topuria boasts a 100% takedown defense and 70% significant strike defense, making him tough to put away.

2. Experience vs. Momentum

   • Although only two UFC appearances deep, Almakhan’s first-round KO of ex-champ Brad Katona showcased his readiness for top-15 opposition.
   • Topuria, undefeated since his promotional debut, earned a unanimous decision over Colby Thicknesse but has shown a penchant for quick finishes.

3. Styles Make Fights

   • Almakhan’s karate base allows for dynamic movement and sudden leg kicks.
   • Topuria’s boxing pedigree and counterstriking present a strategic challenge, especially if he can neutralize Almakhan’s range and avoid early knockouts.

With both men carrying similar physical dimensions—67″ height, 68″ reach—this fight likely comes down to pace, power, and fight IQ. Will Almakhan’s knockout prowess dictate the terms, or can Topuria weather the storm and execute a calculated game plan? Stay tuned as we break down the complete tactical blueprint, betting angles, and final predictions later in our full fight analysis.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Bekzat Almakhan vs Aleksandre Topuria can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Bekzat Almakhan Profile

Background

• Age: 27
• Nationality: Kazakhstan (Zhambyl Oblysy)
• Fighting Style: Karate with heavy knockout power
• Physicals: 5’7″, 136 lb, 68″ reach
• UFC Debut: March 2, 2024

Bekzat Almakhan stormed into the UFC after compiling a 10–1 regional record, nine of those wins by knockout. A traditional karate base gives him dynamic footwork and sudden leg kicks, but it’s his fast-twitch power that truly defines his style.

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

1. May 10, 2025 vs Brad Katona – Win by KO/TKO (R1, 1:04)
2. Mar. 2, 2024 vs Umar Nurmagomedov – Loss by Decision (Unanimous, 3 × 5:00)
3. 2023 Regional Bout – Win by KO (R2)
4. 2022 Regional Bout – Win by Submission (R1)

Almakhan bounced back from his lone UFC defeat to one of the division’s slickest grapplers, Umar Nurmagomedov, by tearing through Brad Katona in just 64 seconds. His regional résumé also features a suite of early stoppages, highlighting his aggression and finishing instinct.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Explosive knockout power: 9 KOs in 12 career wins
• Fast starts: five first-round finishes in the UFC and on the regional scene
• Unpredictable angles from karate footwork

Weaknesses

• Striking defense: only 32% significant strike defense makes him vulnerable to volume and counters
• Takedown game: 0% takedown accuracy and defense in UFC bouts—susceptible to wrestlers
• Ground game underdeveloped: limited submissions (1 career)

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Aleksandre Topuria Profile

Background

• Age: 29
• Nationality: Georgia (born in Germany)
• Fighting Style: Boxing-based striker with solid wrestling defense
• Physicals: 5’7″, 135.5 lb, 68″ reach
• UFC Debut: February 8, 2025

Topuria entered the UFC as an undefeated regional standout, showcasing crisp boxing and killer instinct. His ability to mix level changes makes him a nightmare for opponents who overcommit to striking.

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

1. Feb. 8, 2025 vs Colby Thicknesse – Win by Decision (Unanimous, 3 × 5:00)
2. 2024 Regional Bout – Win by KO (R1)
3. 2024 Regional Bout – Win by Submission (R1)
4. 2023 Regional Bout – Win by KO (R2)

Since his lone career loss early in his pro journey, Topuria rattled off six straight victories—five by finish, four inside five minutes—before earning his UFC contract. His unanimous decision over Thicknesse proved he can adjust when the early stoppage doesn’t materialize.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Striking accuracy: 52% significant strike rate (elite for Bantamweight)
• Defense: 70% significant strike defense frustrates pressure fighters
• Wrestling: 50% takedown accuracy and 100% takedown defense—tough to put on the mat

Weaknesses

• Cardio questions over five rounds (only one full-distance fight)
• Relatively untested against high-level wrestlers who can force grappling exchanges
• Less knockout power (3 KOs in 6 wins) compared to Almakhan’s heavy hands

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Matchup Implications:
Almakhan brings raw power and a takedown liability, while Topuria counters with pinpoint boxing and an ironclad takedown defense. This clash of styles—explosive karate knockout artist versus technical boxer-wrestler—will hinge on whether Almakhan can land early, high-impact strikes before Topuria finds his range and control.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update at BetOnline.ag, Bekzat Almakhan sits as the favorite at –118, while Aleksandre Topuria is the underdog at –102. Though both moneylines are negative, Almakhan’s deeper favorite tag reflects oddsmakers’ confidence in his knockout power and aggression. Topuria’s slightly shorter line suggests bettors see real value in his elite takedown defense and boxing accuracy.

• Bekzat Almakhan (Favorite): –118
• Aleksandre Topuria (Underdog): –102
• Best Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag

Line Movement and Trends

A close look at the odds history reveals significant swings for both fighters in the 24 hours leading up to fight night:

Bekzat Almakhan (–105 → –120 → –116 → –130 → –120 → –115 → –118)
Aleksandre Topuria (–115 → +100 → –104 → +110 → +100 → –105 → –102)

• Biggest Swing for Almakhan: Moved from –120 to –130 as heavy action poured in on his early-stopping reputation, before settling back to –118 when Topuria–leaning wagers balanced the line.
• Topuria Volatility: Flipped from a small favorite (–115) to underdog (+100) and back multiple times, indicating sharp money both ways—first on value in his wrestling control, then on Almakhan’s power, and finally on Topuria’s counter-striking edge.

These shifts suggest bettors are split between Almakhan’s explosive finishes and Topuria’s technical savvy. Late money has slightly favored Topuria, trimming Almakhan’s odds from a peak of –130 to –118.

Payout Scenarios

If you laid down $1,000 on either fighter at today’s lines, here’s what your return would look like:

• Betting $1,000 on Bekzat Almakhan (–118) returns $1,847.46 total ($847.46 profit).
• Betting $1,000 on Aleksandre Topuria (–102) returns $1,980.39 total ($980.39 profit).

Given these payouts, Topuria offers a slightly bigger payday for the same risk, while Almakhan remains the more “likely” winner in the eyes of the books.

Implied Probabilities

Without diving into the math, these lines translate to roughly:

• Bekzat Almakhan: Just over a 54% chance to win
• Aleksandre Topuria: Just under a 51% chance to win

The overlapping probabilities highlight how razor-thin this fight is from a wagering standpoint—each man is viewed as having about a coin-flip’s chance of coming out on top.

Key Takeaways for Bettors

1. Sharp vs. Square Money: Early sharp money drove Almakhan from –120 to –130 before public bettors trimmed him back. Topuria’s bounce between favorite and dog underscores conflicting confidence.
2. Value Spot: Topuria at –102 offers a slightly better implied value if you believe his grappling and defensive metrics will neutralize Almakhan’s power.
3. Risk Appetite: Almakhan’s –118 line appeals to those favoring finishes and momentum; Topuria’s line suits bettors looking for a tactical, five-round outcome.

With both fighters attracting substantial action, savvy bettors will monitor late line moves at BetOnline.ag to lock in the best possible odds before the cage door closes. Good luck!