UFC Perez vs Almabayev Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev Fight Analysis

Introduction

Mark your calendars for Friday, November 22, 2025, as the Flyweight division heats up at the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. This pivotal matchup between former title challenger Alex Perez (#8) and the surging Kazakh contender Asu Almabayev (#9) headlines the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker. Scheduled to start at 18:00 UTC (21:00 local Doha time), this clash promises fireworks as two of the division’s most dynamic athletes look to cement their place among the elite.

At the heart of this showdown lies a classic underdog-versus-favorite dynamic. Asu Almabayev enters as the betting favorite at -170, riding a three-fight UFC win streak and boasting a well-rounded skill set built on elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu roots. With a professional record of 22-3-0, nine submission victories, and a 54% significant strike accuracy, Almabayev’s grappling pedigree and striking efficiency make him a formidable challenge for any top-10 opponent. His recent unanimous decision win over Jose Ochoa demonstrated poise under pressure and showcased his ability to dictate pace on the feet and in scrambles.

On the opposite corner stands Alex Perez, the heavy-handed American veteran cast in the role of underdog at +145. Known for his aggressive freestyle approach and lightning-fast takedown entries, Perez (25-9-0) has finished ten fights in the opening frame and holds a 77% takedown defense rate. Although coming off a tough loss to rising star Tatsuro Taira, Perez’s eight-year UFC tenure has seen him test champions and top contenders alike. Fighters who underestimate his power rarely make it out of the first two rounds alive. His 46% striking accuracy and 59% strike defense indicate a willingness to engage and counterpunch when opportunities arise.

What makes this contest especially compelling is the stylistic contrast: Almabayev’s patient, submission-first mentality versus Perez’s forward-pressure wrestling attack. Will we see Almabayev employ his slick guard work to neutralize Perez’s takedown attempts, or will the calorie-burning pace of Perez’s relentless wrestling grind sap the Kazakh’s championship-caliber gas tank? Fans should expect chess-like exchanges early, giving way to desperation scramble moments in later rounds.

Beyond the immediate stakes—climbing the 125-pound ladder and potentially securing a top-five opportunity—this fight carries intangible momentum for both men. A decisive win for Almabayev would validate his leap into the upper echelon of the Flyweight division, while a performance comeback for Perez could resurrect his candidacy for a rematch against the division’s cream of the crop.

Whether you’re backing the slick submissions of Asu Almabayev or betting on the unyielding power and pace of Alex Perez, this fight is the kind of high-stakes grappling-versus-wrestling battle that defines championship contenders. Strap in for a thrilling ride under the Doha lights—this Flyweight blockbuster is destined to deliver action from start to finish.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Asu Almabayev Profile

Background

• Age: 31
• Country: Kazakhstan
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with a well-rounded striking arsenal
• UFC Debut: August 5, 2023

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Jose Ochoa (July 26, 2025) – Decision (Unanimous)
2. Loss vs. Manel Kape (March 1, 2025) – KO/TKO, Round 3
3. Win vs. Matheus Nicolau (October 19, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)
4. Win vs. Jose Johnson (June 15, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)
5. Win vs. CJ Vergara (March 9, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)

Almabayev enters on a 4-1 run, avenging his only recent defeat to Manel Kape with consistent octagon control and precise submission setups.

Strengths

• Submission Threat: 9 of his 22 wins have come via submission, showcasing elite grappling transitions and a sharp guard game.
• Striking Precision: 54% significant strike accuracy; he lands over half of his power strikes, often setting up takedowns and clinch work.
• Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 13:25 indicates strong endurance across three rounds, enabling late-round takedown attempts and submission hunts.
• Balanced Defense: 52% striking defense makes him tough to clip cleanly, while his 43% takedown accuracy keeps constant forward pressure on opponents.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense: 50%, leaving him vulnerable to high-volume wrestlers who can chain wrestle and clinch him against the cage.
• Finishing Rate: Only 4 first-round finishes in 25 pro fights; he often drags fights into decisions, which could favor a heavy-hitting aggressor.

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Alex Perez Profile

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestler with heavy hands and aggressive forward pressure
• UFC Debut: August 8, 2017

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Loss vs. Tatsuro Taira (June 15, 2024) – KO/TKO, Round 2
2. Win vs. Matheus Nicolau (April 27, 2024) – KO/TKO, Round 2
3. Loss vs. Muhammad Mokaev (March 2, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)
4. Loss vs. Alexandre Pantoja (July 30, 2022) – Submission, Round 1
5. Loss vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (November 21, 2020) – Submission, Round 1

Perez is 1-4 over his last five outings, but his highlight-reel power and relentless pace make him dangerous every time the cage door closes.

Strengths

• Early Finisher: 10 first-round finishes, often overwhelming opponents with a flurry of takedowns or heavy strikes.
• Takedown Defense: 77%, one of the highest rates in the division, neutralizing wrestling specialists and forcing stand-up exchanges.
• Striking Defense: 59%, allowing him to slip or block counter-attacks while pressuring forward.
• Pace & Pressure: Avg. fight time of 6:47; when he’s on, he ends fights quickly and doesn’t give opponents time to adjust.

Weaknesses

• Consistency Issues: A string of five losses against top contenders hints at vulnerability when fights go to later rounds or slick submission artists.
• Striking Accuracy: 46%, below the divisional average; long, technical strikers can outpoint or frustrate him from range.
• Submission Defense: With 7 submission wins but several recent losses by submission, Perez can be susceptible in grappling exchanges against high-level BJJ opponents.

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Matchup Breakdown

This fight pits Almabayev’s submission-first, patient style against Perez’s high-octane pressure wrestling. Key questions include:

• Can Perez’s 77% takedown defense hold against Almabayev’s 43% takedown accuracy and slick jiu-jitsu setups?
• Will Almabayev’s 50% takedown defense absorb Perez’s wrestling bursts, or will early-level exchanges favor the veteran grappler?
• Can Perez land his power shots (46% accuracy) before Almabayev finds his rhythm and drags the fight into deep grappling waters?

Expect a tactical chess match that unfolds into a high-pace grind, with each fighter playing to their strengths: Almabayev’s submission threat versus Perez’s relentless pressure.

Odds and Betting Breakdown

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, the UFC Flyweight clash between Asu Almabayev and Alex Perez has the following head-to-head lines at BetOnline.ag:

• Asu Almabayev: –170 (Favorite)
• Alex Perez: +145 (Underdog)

This gap of 315 points clearly marks Almabayev as the betting favorite. At –170, bettors need to risk $170 to win $100, while the +145 underdog line on Perez offers a larger payout for those backing the American veteran.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

A closer look at the odds history reveals some notable swings over the past 48 hours on BetOnline.ag:

| Date (UTC) | Almabayev Odds | Perez Odds | |----------------------|----------------|------------| | Nov 12, 18:19 | –162 | +142 | | Nov 13, 03:19 | –180 | +155 | | Nov 13, 08:20 | –170 | +145 |

• Early Shift to –180: After opening at –162, Almabayev briefly dipped to –180, suggesting sharp money poured in on the Kazakh fighter.
• Fade to –170: The line then settled back to –170 as bookmakers balanced stakes, indicating a slight reduction in favorite confidence.
• Perez Movement: Conversely, Perez started at +142, drifted out to +155 (as some bettors jumped off), then sharpened to +145, showing renewed interest in the underdog.

These swings—particularly Almabayev’s peak at –180—signal that the market sees real value in his grappling-heavy style but remains wary of Perez’s sudden-finish upside.

Payout Scenarios (Hypothetical $1,000 Bet)

• If you bet $1,000 on Almabayev at –170, your total payout would be $1,588 (your $1,000 stake plus $588 profit).
• If you bet $1,000 on Perez at +145, your total payout would be $2,450 (your $1,000 stake plus $1,450 profit).

These figures demonstrate how much extra you’d earn backing the underdog’s power and experience versus the favorite’s well-rounded skill set.

Implied Probabilities

Based on the current lines, the market is suggesting roughly:

• Asu Almabayev: ~63% chance to win
• Alex Perez: ~41% chance to win

These probabilities reflect bookmaker vig and rounding but give a clear view of how the betting public and sharp money are leaning.

Best Sportsbook Recommendation

All the above figures were sourced from BetOnline.ag, which consistently offers competitive Flyweight odds, early line movement alerts, and deep prop markets. For anyone looking to get in on this fight, BetOnline.ag is our top pick for pre-fight wagering, early line shopping, and live in-play odds.