Yakhyaev vs Cerqueira Odds, Analysis & AI Pick | UFC Betting

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev vs Rafael Cerqueira fight breakdown

Event Details

Mark your calendars for Saturday, November 22, 2025, as the UFC invades the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, for a stacked Fight Night card headlined by Arman Tsarukyan vs. “Bam” Hooker. Slated on the Preliminary Card, the light heavyweight clash between Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev and Rafael Cerqueira is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET (20:00 local Doha time). While the eyes of the fight world will be on the headliner, this opening bout promises fireworks: a debutant phenom against a seasoned Brazilian striker.

The Favorite and the Underdog

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (1-0-0 UFC), a 24-year-old Russian prospect, makes his highly anticipated octagon debut as a heavy favorite at -800 (BetOnline.ag). Boasting an astonishing 89% significant strike accuracy, a perfect 100% takedown defense, and an average fight time of just 30 seconds, Yakhyaev’s explosive style and picture-perfect metrics have oddsmakers installing him as one of the most lopsided favorites in recent memory. Standing in his way is Rafael Cerqueira (11-3-0), a 35-year-old Brazilian veteran carrying a +550 underdog tag. Cerqueira enters Doha on a three-fight skid—all losses inside the Octagon—with two first-round knockouts against him and one decision defeat. Despite his 8 first-round finishes in 11 career victories, the savvy Brazilian is viewed as the longshot in this matchup.

What to Watch For

• Yakhyaev’s Debut Blitz: Fresh off dominating regional circuits, Yakhyaev will look to unleash a barrage of precision strikes and test his knockout power early. His uncanny ability to land almost nine in ten significant strikes underlines a game built for quick, emphatic finishes.
• Cerqueira’s Resilience: Although Cerqueira’s UFC tenure has been rocky, his experience and finishing pedigree cannot be discounted. He’ll need to weather the storm, find his rhythm, and capitalize on any overextensions from the Russian newcomer.
• Game-Plan Dynamics: Will Yakhyaev stick to striking exchanges or mix in takedown attempts to keep Cerqueira off pace? Conversely, can Cerqueira drag the fight into deeper waters—where veteran savvy and cardio often pay dividends against an untested debutant?

Stakes and Implications

A win for Yakhyaev would cement his status as a future title contender in the light heavyweight division, instantly vaulting him into the radar of the top 15. For Cerqueira, a victory would halt a three-fight skid, restore confidence, and salvage his UFC tenure. With so much on the line and the contrasting styles on display, this preliminary card offering is a must-watch opener that could set the tone for the entire evening.

Buckle up—whether you’re backing the overwhelming favorite or banking on the gritty underdog, Yakhyaev vs. Cerqueira promises to be an electric start to Fight Night in Doha.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev vs Rafael Cerqueira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup Analysis & Fighter Profiles

Rafael Cerqueira: The Veteran Brazilian Striker

Age: 35
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Aggressive striker with heavy hands and a penchant for early finishes

Rafael Cerqueira arrives in Doha as a seasoned light heavyweight with an 11-3-0 professional record, boasting 8 knockouts and 2 submissions. A large percentage of his wins come in the opening round (8 first-round finishes), underlining his power, timing, and confidence to close the show early. However, Cerqueira’s UFC tenure has been challenging—he is on a three-fight skid:

• Aug. 9, 2025 – Loss vs. Julius Walker (Unanimous Decision, 3 rounds)
• Feb. 22, 2025 – Loss vs. Modestas Bukauskas (KO/TKO, Round 1, 2:12)
• Oct. 26, 2024 – Loss vs. Ibo Aslan (KO/TKO, Round 1, 0:51)

Strengths:

• Power & Finishing Instincts: 73% of wins by knockout; explosive entries and heavy hands make him dangerous early.
• Experience: Three UFC fights under his belt, plus regional experience help him navigate octagon nerves.
• Finishing Diversity: While primarily a striker, he’s also secured 2 submission wins, hinting at some grappling chops.

Weaknesses:

• Defensive Gaps: 37% significant strike defense means he absorbs a high volume of clean shots.
• Takedown Defense: At 40%, he struggles to keep aggressive wrestlers off him.
• Recent Form: Knocked out twice and decisively outpointed in his last three, his confidence may be shaken.
• Slow Starts: Decision loss to Walker showed he can be out-paced over three rounds when early power wears off.

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev: The Rising Russian Phenom

Age: 24
Country: Russia
Fighting Style: Precision striker with lightning-fast finishes and rock-solid defense

Making his UFC debut at just 24 years old, Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is a highly touted prospect with a perfect 1-0-0 record inside the octagon. Though his UFC résumé is limited, his lone victory was a blistering outing that lasted 30 seconds, hinting at his ability to overwhelm opponents immediately. His razor-sharp metrics paint the picture of a near-flawless fighter:

• 89% significant strike accuracy – Nearly nine out of ten strikes landed
• 67% significant strike defense – Two-thirds of opponent strikes negated
• 100% takedown defense – Never been taken down under UFC rules

Strengths:

• Striking Precision: Yakhyaev’s phenomenal accuracy allows him to pick shots and punish openings consistently.
• Defensive Prowess: With two-thirds of strikes avoided and perfect takedown defense, he frustrates offensive foes.
• Quick Finisher: Average fight time under 30 seconds signals elite-level explosiveness and finishing mentality.

Weaknesses:

• Inexperience: One UFC fight is a small sample—he’s untested beyond the opening flurry and in championship rounds.
• Grappling Offense: 0% takedown accuracy suggests a limited wrestling arsenal; opponents with grappling IQ could exploit this.
• Pressure Under Duress: Unknown how he handles adversity if the first assault doesn’t land; mental resilience is unproven.
• Cardio & Endurance: Never gone deep, so pacing and gas tank in rounds two and three are big question marks.

Head-to-Head Dynamics

This clash pits Cerqueira’s raw power and veteran savvy against Yakhyaev’s surgical precision and defense. The Brazilian must avoid the nose-to-nose firefight where he’s conceded too many clean shots and instead drag the Russian into deeper waters—perhaps testing leg kicks, clinch control, or feints to bait counters. Conversely, Yakhyaev will look to open up with pinpoint accuracy, punish overextensions, and shut down Cerqueira’s offense before it can build momentum.

In many ways, this fight is a litmus test: can the untested phenom overcome a hardened striker, or will Cerqueira’s experience and power derail the debuting favorite? Expect fireworks—either a swift finish or an instructive battle of styles that reveals who will rise in the UFC’s light heavyweight ranks.

Betting Odds Breakdown & History

Current Odds Snapshot

• Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (Favorite): –800
• Rafael Cerqueira (Underdog): +550
• Best Bookmaker: BetOnline.ag

As of November 13, 2025, BetOnline.ag is offering the sharpest lines on this light heavyweight matchup. Yakhyaev enters as an overwhelming favorite at –800, while Cerqueira sits at a hefty underdog price of +550. The gap between these two odds reflects the market’s confidence in Yakhyaev’s debut explosiveness versus Cerqueira’s recent struggles.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

• Initial Release: When the odds first dropped, Yakhyaev was installed roughly in the same neighborhood of –750 to –800, signaling strong early support.
• Current Status: No major swings have been recorded—lines have held steady at –800/+550 since their release.
• What to Watch: As fight week approaches, look for any sharp money that might nudge the line. A sudden move toward –850 or +600 could indicate heavy action on one side (private bets, insider confidence, etc.).

Overall, the lack of significant line movement suggests both casual bettors and sharp money are aligned on Yakhyaev’s overwhelming edge. However, keep an eye out for last-minute shifts if news breaks on weight-cut issues, late injuries, or insider prop bets.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Wager

• Bet $1,000 on Yakhyaev at –800
  • Profit: $125
  • Total Return: $1,125

• Bet $1,000 on Cerqueira at +550
  • Profit: $5,500
  • Total Return: $6,500

Whether you’re locking in a small return on the favorite or chasing a life-changing payday with the underdog, BetOnline.ag delivers competitive lines and reliable payouts.

Implied Probabilities (Market’s Take)

• Yakhyaev: ~89% chance to win
• Cerqueira: ~15% chance to win

These probabilities underscore the market’s faith in the Russian phenom’s ability to dictate this matchup from bell to bell. At the same time, the underdog percentage reflects the longshot allure of Cerqueira—any sudden turnaround or big upset would pay handsomely.

Key Takeaways

• Huge Favorite vs. Big Underdog: A clear disparity in market confidence makes Yakhyaev a low-risk, low-reward play and Cerqueira a high-risk, high-reward option.
• Stable Lines So Far: No meaningful movement indicates consensus betting so far, but late adjustments could offer value opportunities.
• Shop for the Best Price: Always compare odds across sportsbooks—if another book opens Cerqueira at +600 or Yakhyaev at –750, that swing could significantly impact ROI.

Whether you’re tilting your bankroll toward the overwhelming favorite or seeking that monumental underdog payday, understanding the odds, line history, and implied probabilities is essential. Lock in your wager before any late shifts, and enjoy the action when Yakhyaev vs. Cerqueira hits the Octagon.