Ulanbekov vs Horiguchi UFC Flyweight Odds & Analysis

Tagir Ulanbekov vs Kyoji Horiguchi fight analysis

Get ready for an electrifying flyweight showdown as Tagir Ulanbekov locks horns with Kyoji Horiguchi on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker. This bout is scheduled for Saturday, November 22, 2025, at the state-of-the-art ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, with the first bell slated to ring at 5:00 PM local time (GMT+3).

Both fighters arrive with impressive pedigrees, but the betting markets have already made their verdict. Russia’s surging #12 ranked contender Tagir Ulanbekov enters as the -170 favorite at BetOnline.ag, backed by a solid 17-2 professional record and a relentless wrestling-ground game. Meanwhile, Japan’s former RIZIN champion Kyoji Horiguchi, boasting an 18-2 mark, stands as the +145 underdog, riding his elite striking pedigree and veteran savvy into what promises to be a captivating clash of styles.

Why this fight matters:

• Ulanbekov is on a mission to reassert his position among the flyweight elite after a hard-fought loss in his last outing. His UFC résumé features seven submissions and three first-round finishes, underscoring his dangerous grappling arsenal and improving striking acumen (49% accuracy, 52% defense).
• Horiguchi, a pioneer in MMA flyweight competition, is hunting his first UFC victory since 2016. Although his resume at bantamweight glitters, his recent activity has been in Japan, making this bout a true measure of how his leg kicks, footwork, and fight IQ translate back to the Octagon.

What’s at stake:

• For Ulanbekov, a win propels him closer to contender talks and possibly a Top 5 matchup.
• For Horiguchi, a victory revitalizes his UFC tenure, proving he remains a dynamic threat capable of breaking into the title picture.

As two seasoned veterans collide under the dazzling lights of Doha, fight fans can expect high‐octane exchanges, strategic grappling scrambles, and a display of technical mastery. Will Ulanbekov’s wrestling dominance ground Horiguchi’s crisp striking? Or can the Japanese phenom keep the fight standing long enough to unleash his trademark combinations? The answers await on November 22—don’t miss a second of this flyweight thriller.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tagir Ulanbekov vs Kyoji Horiguchi can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

On November 22, 2025, at the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, two seasoned flyweights collide: Tagir Ulanbekov (17-2-0) and Kyoji Horiguchi (18-2-0). Ulanbekov arrives as the -170 favorite, riding a powerful wrestling base and seven UFC submission victories. Horiguchi, the +145 underdog, brings world-class striking pedigree and elite defensive metrics. Let’s break down their backgrounds, recent form, and key strengths and vulnerabilities.

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Tagir Ulanbekov Profile

Background

• Age: 34
• Country: Russia
• Fighting Style: Wrestling
• UFC Debut: October 10, 2020

Ulanbekov is a Dagestani-bred grappler who has seamlessly blended takedowns with a growing striking arsenal. At 5’7″ with a 70″ reach, he uses level changes and chain-wrestling to control opponents on the mat.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. June 21, 2025 – Loss vs Azat Maksum (Decision)
2. Jan. 18, 2025 – Win vs Clayton Carpenter (Unanimous Decision)
3. Dec. 16, 2023 – Win vs Cody Durden (Submission, R2 4:25)
4. Nov. 5, 2022 – Win vs Nate Maness (Submission, R1 2:11)
5. Mar. 5, 2022 – Loss vs Tim Elliott (Unanimous Decision)

He carries momentum from three consecutive finishes (two submissions) before a close decision loss to Maksum disrupted his winning streak.

Strengths

• Wrestling & Grappling: 62% takedown defense; elite scrambling ability.
• Finishing Instinct: 7 submissions, 3 first-round stoppages in 17 wins.
• Striking Accuracy: 49% significant strike connect rate, improving each outing.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: 39% success rate, below elite flyweight grapplers.
• Striking Defense: 52% significant strike defense leaves him vulnerable to dynamic boxers.
• Power Output: Only 1 KO win; lacks one-punch finishing threat.

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Kyoji Horiguchi Profile

Background

• Age: 34
• Country: Japan
• Fighting Style: Striking / Technical Footwork
• UFC Debut: October 20, 2013

A former RIZIN champion and one of MMA’s most fluid strikers, Horiguchi stands 5’4″ with a 66″ reach. His defensive movement and leg-kick arsenal have made him a highlight-reel veteran.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Nov. 19, 2016 – Win vs Ali Bagautinov (Decision)
2. May 8, 2016 – Win vs Neil Seery (Decision)
3. Sept. 27, 2015 – Win vs Chico Camus (Decision)
4. Apr. 25, 2015 – Loss vs Temetoriasu Shiyonson (Undisclosed)
5. Jan. 3, 2015 – Win vs Louis Gaudinot (Unanimous Decision)

Though inactive in the UFC since 2016, Horiguchi has remained busy overseas, sharpening his striking and adding leg-lock finishes to his résumé.

Strengths

• Defensive Prowess: 62% significant strike defense; elusive head movement.
• Striking Volume: 45% accuracy paired with 14:05 average fight duration, controlling distance and pace.
• Takedown Defense: 55% success at thwarting takedowns, keeping fights standing.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Rate: 0 KOs, 0 submissions in UFC; decisions dominate his record.
• Takedown Offense: 44% success rate—can struggle to mix levels and pressure.
• Pace in Later Rounds: Longer fights trend to decision, potentially slowing in championship five-round shape.

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This clash of wrestling vs. striking will test Ulanbekov’s takedown tools against Horiguchi’s defensive footwork. Can Russia’s grappling ace impose himself on the ground, or will Japan’s veteran technician keep it at range and outpoint him over fifteen minutes? Fans—and bettors—are in for a strategic masterclass under the Doha lights.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update from BetOnline.ag, the moneylines for this flyweight clash stand at:

• Tagir Ulanbekov: –170 (favorite)
• Kyoji Horiguchi: +145 (underdog)

This pricing reflects a clear lean toward Ulanbekov’s wrestling-heavy toolkit, with bettors and oddsmakers giving him roughly a 63% chance to win, compared to about a 41% implied probability on Horiguchi. The $170 risk on Ulanbekov returns $100 profit, whereas a $100 wager on Horiguchi nets $145 profit.

Underdog vs. Favorite

• Favorite: Tagir Ulanbekov (–170)
  • Consistent grappling threat and home to a string of submission finishes.
• Underdog: Kyoji Horiguchi (+145)
  • Elite striking pedigree and veteran savvy—but must overcome the ground game.

Recommended Sportsbook

For the best value and highest reliability, BetOnline.ag remains the top choice here. They have shown competitive lines, an easy-to-navigate interface, and an established reputation for timely updates. If you’re looking to lock in these odds, BetOnline.ag is where to be.

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Line Movement Analysis

Tagir Ulanbekov (–170)

• Opened at +105 on Nov. 12
• Dropped steadily: –110 → –120 → –138 → –145 → –146 → –144 → –154
• Current low of –170 on Nov. 13

Swing Highlights:
• A massive 275-point plunge from +105 to –170 signals heavy backing of Ulanbekov, likely driven by insider buzz on his wrestling camp and public confidence in his takedown game.

Kyoji Horiguchi (+145)

• Opened at –125 on Nov. 12
• Shifted upward: –110 → +100 → +118 → +125 → +126 → +124 → +134
• Climbed to +145 on Nov. 13

Swing Highlights:
• A 270-point jump from –125 to +145 underscores growing skepticism about Horiguchi’s inactivity and how his striking will fare against a relentless grappler.

These large swings reflect shifting public money, expert props, and potential sharp action on Ulanbekov’s wrestling edge. If you caught this market early, you benefited from softer lines on both sides.

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Hypothetical $1,000 Bet Payouts

• Bet $1,000 on Ulanbekov (–170):
  You’d pocket a $588 profit, for a total return of $1,588.

• Bet $1,000 on Horiguchi (+145):
  You’d enjoy a $1,450 profit, for a total return of $2,450.

Both scenarios offer compelling reasons to choose your side. A lean towards Ulanbekov secures a higher win probability but smaller payoff, while backing Horiguchi pays handsomely if his striking mastery can keep the fight vertical. Choose wisely and consider timing your wager on BetOnline.ag to lock in the best possible line before any further movement.