Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape: UFC Flyweight Odds & Analysis

Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape fight analysis

Introduction

The UFC returns to the Apex Facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, December 13, 2025, for what promises to be a thrilling Flyweight showdown between two of the division’s most dynamic contenders. On the main card of UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Kape, the octagon will host a clash between #3-ranked Brandon Royval (17-8-0) and #6-ranked Manel Kape (21-7-0). The official start time for this bout is slated for 03:00 UTC on December 14, which translates to 10:00 PM ET on December 13, following the prelims at the UFC APEX.

This matchup features contrasting styles and career trajectories. The bookmakers at BetOnline.ag currently list Manel Kape as the clear favorite at –225, reflecting his lethal knockout power and recent two-fight KO streak. Kape has finished 13 of his 21 career wins by knockout, carrying a 56% significant striking accuracy and defending 58% of his opponent’s strikes. His southpaw stance, explosive leg kicks, and heavy hands have made him one of the most dangerous punchers in the 125-pound division.

On the opposite end of the odds board, Brandon Royval checks in as the underdog at +190. Known as “Raw Dawg,” Royval is a relentless wrestler with nine submission victories and a 75% takedown accuracy—one of the highest in the flyweight ranks. Averaging 12 minutes and 18 seconds per outing, Royval typically drags fights to the canvas, where he deploys a punishing ground-and-pound attack and hunts for submissions. His 41% striking accuracy pales in comparison to Kape’s, but Royval’s ability to mix takedowns and keep opponents guessing has earned him notable wins over top contenders.

Both men enter this contest riding contrasting momentum. Kape is on a two-fight knockout tear, having dispatched Assu Almabayev and Bruno Silva in the third round earlier in 2025. He seeks to prove that his power transcends any weight class adjustments and to position himself for another title shot. Meanwhile, Royval suffered a setback in June 2025 against fellow grappler Joshua Van, but rebounded in October with a hard-fought split-decision victory over Tatsuro Taira. Royval’s path back to title contention hinges on neutralizing Kape’s striking and imposing his wrestling pedigree.

With both athletes possessing clear paths to victory—Kape via devastating stand-up and Royval through scramble-heavy grappling—this fight represents a true stylistic crossroads in the flyweight division. Fans tuning in at the UFC APEX should prepare for high-paced action, positional grappling exchanges, and sudden-finishing power. As the favorite, Kape must capitalize on distance and striking volume, while Royval, the sour underdog, will look to close the distance, secure takedowns, and test Kape’s ground defense. The stakes are high: a win propels the victor toward the top tier of the division, while a loss could set back title aspirations in a packed flyweight landscape.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Royval vs Kape can be found on the Royval vs Kape event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Brandon Royval

Age: 33
Country: United States (Denver, CO)
Fighting Style: Brawler / Grappler

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Loss vs. Joshua Van (Jun 2025) – decision setback against a fellow grappler
• Win vs. Tatsuro Taira (Oct 2024) – split-decision, strong wrestling base controlled the action
• Win vs. Brandon Moreno (Feb 2024) – split-decision over former champion, showcased cardio and resilience
• Loss vs. Alexandre Pantoja (Dec 2023) – unanimous decision, struggled with opponent’s pace and striking volume
• Win vs. Matheus Nicolau (Apr 2023) – first-round KO/TKO, demonstrated heavy ground-and-pound

Statistics Snapshot

• Record: 17–8–0
• Significant Striking Accuracy: 41%
• Significant Striking Defense: 43%
• Takedown Accuracy: 75% (elite in flyweight division)
• Takedown Defense: 45%
• First-Round Finishes: 10
• Average Fight Time: 12:18

Strengths

• Elite Wrestling & Takedowns: With a 75% takedown success rate, Royval excels at dictating where the fight takes place. Once on top, his relentless ground-and-pound opens submission opportunities.
• Cardio & Durability: Royval has shown the ability to maintain pace deep into championship rounds, evidenced by his wins over Moreno and Taira, both five-round wars.
• Submission Threat: Nine career submissions signal that he’s comfortable hunting chokes and armbars when opponents scramble or tire.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense (43%): Royval’s significant strike defense is below average, leaving him open to counters and volume from top strikers.
• Stand-up Output & Accuracy: At 41% striking accuracy, he often fails to convert pressure into clean hits, particularly against adept strikers who circle and counter.
• Takedown Defense (45%): While he secures his own takedowns, Royval can be vulnerable when opponents initiate grappling exchanges, as seen against Pantoja.

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Manel Kape

Age: 31
Country: Angola (fights out of Portugal)
Fighting Style: MMA Striker / Power Puncher

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs. Assu Almabayev (Mar 2025) – 3rd-round KO/TKO, showcased heavy leg kicks and power punches
• Win vs. Bruno Silva (Dec 2024) – 3rd-round KO/TKO, highlighted finishing instincts under pressure
• Loss vs. Muhammad Mokaev (Jul 2024) – unanimous decision, struggled with relentless wrestling
• Win vs. Felipe dos Santos (Sep 2023) – unanimous decision, controlled distance with accurate striking
• Win vs. David Dvorak (Dec 2022) – unanimous decision, strong cardio and leg-kick volume

Statistics Snapshot

• Record: 21–7–0
• Significant Striking Accuracy: 56%
• Significant Striking Defense: 58%
• Takedown Accuracy: 30%
• Takedown Defense: 81% (top tier)
• First-Round Finishes: 9
• Average Fight Time: 12:00

Strengths

• Power & Finishing Ability: Thirteen knockout wins confirm that Kape possesses one-punch power and punishing leg kicks that break opponents down.
• Striking Efficiency: At 56% accuracy, he picks his shots well, blending volume and precision from a southpaw stance.
• Takedown Defense (81%): Kape rarely sees the fight taken to the mat, making him hard to control for grapplers.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (30%): Limited wrestling threat means he relies heavily on avoiding the ground game; elite wrestlers can expose this shortfall.
• Durability Under Pressure: Against Mohamed Mokaev, Kape was pressured for five full rounds, suggesting potential gas tank issues under nonstop wrestling.
• Grappling Engagement: While he defends takedowns well, when forced to grapple he can be stagnant—not actively hunting submissions or transitioning positions.

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This clash pits Royval’s elite wrestling and submission pedigree against Kape’s explosive knockout power and striking accuracy. Royval must impose takedowns and sustain pressure, while Kape needs to keep the fight upright, use angling and sharp counters, and avoid extended grappling exchanges. Fans can expect a classic striker-vs-wrestler matchup with clear paths to victory for both men.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, the BetOnline.ag board lists:

• Manel Kape: –225
• Brandon Royval: +190

This pricing makes Kape the clear favorite, while Royval carries underdog value. The difference between –225 and +190 reflects both fighters’ perceived strengths: Kape’s knockout power and striking efficiency versus Royval’s wrestling prowess and submission pedigree.

Line History and Movement

Tracking the line movement on BetOnline.ag reveals modest swings over the past 24 hours:

Manel Kape (–225)

• Opened at –255
• Shifted to –220
• Tick­ed to –215
• Settled at –225

Brandon Royval (+190)

• Opened at +215
• Sharpened to +185
• Rallied to +190

Key observations:

• Kape’s price softened from –255 to –215, suggesting some sharp action on Royval, before tick­ing back to –225.
• Royval’s line contracted from +215 to +185, indicating confidence from bettors in his ability to neutralize Kape’s offense, then stabilized at +190.

Overall, no massive line swings have occurred—both camps have seen interest, but the market remains fairly balanced around the favorite/underdog gap.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

If you had $1,000 to wager:

• Backing Kape at –225 would net you $444 in profit, for $1,444 returned.
• Backing Royval at +190 would net you $1,900 in profit, for $2,900 returned.

These figures illustrate the trade-off: a safer payout on the favorite versus a bigger payday clicking the underdog.

Implied Probabilities

Based on the current odds, the market implies roughly:

• Kape: ~69% chance to win
• Royval: ~34% chance to win

(Note: Odds include the sportsbook’s built-in margin, so total implied probability exceeds 100%.)

Best Sportsbook Recommendation

For this bout, BetOnline.ag stands out with equally sharp lines for both fighters and real-time odds history transparency. Their consistent pricing and favorable juice on both sides make them the top option to consider when placing your wager on Royval vs. Kape.

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With Kape entrenched as the betting favorite and Royval offering substantial underdog upside, your choice hinges on which stylistic argument you believe more strongly: a striking slugfest won by power and precision, or a wrestling-heavy game plan dictated by takedowns and ground control. Whichever side you back, your payout and implied probability have been outlined above—now it’s time to place your bet and enjoy the fireworks this flyweight showdown promises.