Timmy Cuamba vs ChangHo Lee UFC Odds & Analysis

Timmy Cuamba vs ChangHo Lee Fight Analysis

Introduction

The bantamweight clash between Timmy Cuamba and ChangHo Lee is set to ignite the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama on Saturday, November 1, 2025, at the state-of-the-art UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The fight is scheduled to begin around 8:00 PM PT (11:00 PM ET), immediately following the conclusion of the early prelims, and will be broadcast live across major pay-per-view and streaming outlets. While the official main card is headlined by a welterweight showdown between Ryan Garcia and Modestas Onama, all eyes will be on this pivotal bantamweight bout featuring two rising contenders looking to stake their claim in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions.

Entering the Octagon as the slight favorite, Timmy Cuamba (9-3-0) brings a reputation as a heavy-handed striker with a 42% significant strike accuracy and two first-round finishes so far in his UFC tenure. A former regional prospect out of Las Vegas, Cuamba made a splashy debut early in 2024 and has since demonstrated both power and resilience, bouncing back from two close split-decision losses to notch a second-round knockout over Roberto Romero in April. His 6′ 11″ reach and disciplined stand-up game make him a difficult puzzle for opponents who lack the striking pedigree to match his output and precision.

On the flip side, ChangHo Lee (11-1-0) enters this contest as the underdog, priced around +117 at leading sportsbooks like BetOnline.ag and DraftKings. Hailing from South Korea, Lee made an immediate impression with a 67% significant strike accuracy and six career knockouts that showcase explosive finishing ability. After an emphatic second-round KO of Cortavious Romious in April and a hard-fought split-decision win over Xiao Long in his UFC debut last June, Lee has proven he can both apply pressure and withstand adversity. His 33% takedown accuracy and willingness to mix levels add an unpredictable element to his aggressive striking approach.

This matchup presents a classic stylistic showdown: Cuamba’s methodical volume striking and defensive wrestling against Lee’s power-punching and forward pressure. Oddsmakers have been adjusting the line over the past week, with Cuamba opening as a moderate favorite (around –130) and Lee steadily drifting from –200 underdog lines into the plus-money range as bettors evaluate Lee’s upside. With both fighters in the prime of their careers—Cuamba at 26 and Lee at 30—this bout could be a springboard for either athlete to break into the bantamweight Top 15 rankings.

As we build toward detailed round-by-round predictions, key metrics to watch include Cuamba’s ability to control distance with his jab and leg kicks, Lee’s takedown attempts if he finds himself outpaced, and each fighter’s gas tank in the championship rounds. In a division notorious for its depth and high finish rate, expect fireworks when the cage door closes at the UFC APEX on November 1.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Timmy Cuamba vs ChangHo Lee can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.

Matchup and Individual Fighter Profiles

ChangHo Lee – “The Taeguk Warrior”

Age: 30
Country: South Korea
Fighting Style: MMA striker with sneaky wrestling sets

ChangHo Lee (11-1-0) burst onto the UFC scene at age 29 and has since compiled a perfect 2-0 record inside the Octagon. A former Asian regional standout, Lee honed his power on the local circuit—amassing an 8-1 regional record highlighted by six knockout victories. Since debuting at UFC Fight Night: Long vs. Lee in June 2024, he has:

• April 5, 2025: KO/TKO win (Round 2, 3:48) vs. Cortavious Romious
• June 22, 2024: Split Decision win (3 rounds) vs. Xiao Long

Strengths

• Elite Striking Accuracy (67%) – Lee lands two out of three significant strikes he throws, forcing opponents to respect his punches and kicks.
• Finishing Instincts – Six career KOs demonstrate his ability to close distance quickly and end fights.
• Offensive Wrestling – A 33% takedown success rate adds unpredictability; he can grind out top position if opponents back away.

Weaknesses

• Poor Strike Defense (40%) – Opponents land 60% of their significant strikes, exposing Lee to volume-based boxers.
• Takedown Defense (38%) – Wrestlers with high-level grappling could exploit ground exchanges.
• Gas Tank Concerns – An average fight time of 10:19 suggests Lee often paces himself for an early finish and may fade in deep waters.

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Timmy Cuamba – “The Desert Storm Striker”

Age: 26
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Dynamic striker with iron chin and defensive wrestling

Timmy Cuamba (9-3-0) debuted in February 2024 and has already delivered highlight-reel knockouts while demonstrating durable defense. His UFC résumé:

• April 26, 2025: KO/TKO win (Round 2, 3:55) vs. Roberto Romero
• June 15, 2024: Unanimous Decision loss (3 rounds) vs. Lucas Almeida
• Feb 10, 2024: Split Decision loss (3 rounds) vs. Bolaji Oki

Strengths

• Superior Strike Defense (59%) – Cuamba thwarts nearly 6 out of 10 attempts, making him tough to hit cleanly.
• Takedown Defense (80%) – Elite wrestling defense nullifies ground threats, keeping the fight upright.
• Cardio and Durability – An average fight time of 13:29 and two first-round finishes prove he can maintain output deep into rounds.

Weaknesses

• Low Striking Accuracy (42%) – Less than half his significant strikes land, indicating timing and distance issues.
• Limited Offensive Grappling (27% takedown rate) – Rarely pressures opponents with takedowns or top control.
• Moderate Finishing Rate – Five KOs in nine wins; far fewer submission threats.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

This clash is a classic power vs. precision battle. Lee’s thunderous boxing and high strike conversion rate will test Cuamba’s defensive shell, but if Lee cannot finish early, Cuamba’s superior takedown defense and cardio advantage could swing later rounds. Lee must capitalize on his power openings while Cuamba will look to frustrate with movement, counter-strikes, and late-round volume.

Both fighters bring contrasting archetypes:

• Lee’s knockout-heavy output against Cuamba’s evasive counters
• Lee’s moderate wrestling vs. Cuamba’s elite takedown defense

Expect fireworks if Lee lands early, but don’t count out Cuamba dragging the pace into championship territory.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As it stands today, the favorite in the bantamweight tilt is Timmy Cuamba, with American odds ranging from –137 (BetOnline.ag) to –130 (Caesars). Meanwhile, ChangHo Lee finds himself as the underdog, priced between +108 (FanDuel) and +117 (BetOnline.ag). Here’s a quick snapshot:

• Timmy Cuamba
  • BetOnline.ag: –137
  • Caesars: –130
  • BetUS: –135
  • DraftKings: –135
  • FanDuel: –138

• ChangHo Lee
  • BetOnline.ag: +117
  • Caesars: +110
  • BetUS: +114
  • DraftKings: +114
  • FanDuel: +108

Best Sportsbook for Underdog (Lee): BetOnline.ag at +117, offering the highest potential return.
Best Sportsbook for Favorite (Cuamba): Caesars at –130, requiring the smallest risk for a given win.

Line Movement and Major Swings

A look at the past few days of line movement reveals dramatic shifts in public perception:

• ChangHo Lee (BetOnline.ag) opened as a –200 favorite on October 25. Over 24 hours, heavy backing of Cuamba forced Lee’s line all the way to +117—a 317-point swing.
• Timmy Cuamba (BetOnline.ag) began at +170 before flipping to a –110 favorite within hours, and ultimately settling at –137 after strong late bets.

These large swings indicate sharp money pouring in on Cuamba, perhaps driven by his recent knockout over Roberto Romero and home–cage comfort at the UFC Apex.

Potential $1,000 Bet Payouts

If you’re laying down $1,000 on fight night, here’s what you’d see:

• Betting on ChangHo Lee at +117
  • Profit: $1,170
  • Total Return: $2,170

• Betting on Timmy Cuamba at –137
  • Profit: $729
  • Total Return: $1,729

Implied Probabilities

Based on the current lines, the UFC betting market suggests roughly:

• Timmy Cuamba: ~58% chance to win
• ChangHo Lee: ~46% chance to win

These probabilities underscore Cuamba’s status as the favorite but also highlight Lee’s genuine upside as a power puncher capable of pulling an upset. Whether you back the home-town striker or the Korean knockout artist, the odds and history of line movement provide valuable context for your wager.