Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai: Odds & AI Pick

Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, November 22, 2025, two contrasting welterweight contenders make their way to the octagon for a pivotal showdown on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker. The action kicks off at 18:00 GMT and will be hosted at the state-of-the-art ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. This clash pits the seasoned veteran Jack Hermansson (24-9-0) against the rising Kyrgyz phenom Myktybek Orolbai (14-2-1). As the welterweight division continues to flourish, this matchup could have significant ramifications for both fighters’ trajectories.

Fighters at a Glance

• Myktybek Orolbai:
  • Age: 27
  • Record: 14-2-1 (6 KOs, 2 submissions)
  • UFC Debut: November 18, 2023
  • Recent Form: Undefeated in two of his last three bouts, including a first-round submission win over Tofiq Musayev in June 2025
  • Betting Odds: -190 (favorite)

• Jack Hermansson:
  • Age: 37
  • Record: 24-9-0 (11 KOs, 6 submissions)
  • UFC Debut: September 3, 2016
  • Recent Form: Coming off a setback against Gregory Rodrigues in June 2025, but a former title contender with five main-card appearances in 2024 and 2022
  • Betting Odds: +165 (underdog)

Setting the Stage

This welterweight bout encapsulates a classic stylistic and experience contrast. Orolbai, known for his explosive starts and seven first-round finishes to date, has showcased a relentless pace, averaging finishes around the 4:50 mark. His 50% significant strike accuracy and notably high finishing rate make him the early favorite in this matchup. In contrast, Hermansson brings veteran savvy, a durable frame, and a measured, grind-heavy approach. With a career average fight time exceeding 11 minutes, “The Joker” has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to weather early storms, relying on a sturdy takedown defense (81%) and superior clinch work.

What’s on the Line

For Orolbai, a victory over a well-established UFC name like Hermansson would solidify his status as a legitimate welterweight contender and potentially catapult him into the top-15 rankings. Conversely, Hermansson is fighting to reestablish himself among the division’s elite. A win here could revive his late-career momentum and set up future matchups against ranked opponents.

With the spotlight shining on the desert capital, this fight promises to deliver a blend of raw youth and polished veteran tactics. As fans and bettors alike weigh their options, one thing is certain: on November 22, the ABHA Arena will be the stage for an unforgettable clash between Myktybek Orolbai and Jack Hermansson.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup & Individual Fighter Profiles

Myktybek Orolbai

Background

• Age: 27
• Country: Kyrgyzstan
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA finisher with a penchant for early submissions and explosive striking entries

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

1. Win vs Tofiq Musayev (Submission, R1 – 4:35) on June 21, 2025
2. Loss vs Mateusz Rebecki (Split Decision) on October 26, 2024
3. Win vs Elves Brener (Unanimous Decision) on May 4, 2024
4. Win vs Uros Medic (Submission, R2 – 4:12) on November 18, 2023

Orolbai has rattled off three wins in his last four outings, showcasing both finishing instincts and the ability to go the distance when under duress. His only setback came via a razor-thin split decision loss to veteran Mateusz Rebecki, but he bounced back emphatically with a first-round submission over former champion Tofiq Musayev.

Strengths

• Finishing Prowess: Seven first-round finishes in 14 career wins (50%) speak to his fast starts and killer instinct.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (50%): One of the highest marks in his division, meaning he lands half of all major strikes he throws.
• Average Fight Time (4:50): Reflects his tendency to end fights early, catching opponents before they can settle in.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense (29%): He defends fewer than one-third of incoming significant strikes, leaving him vulnerable to high-volume strikers.
• Wrestling & Takedown Game: Registered 0% in both takedown accuracy and defense, indicating virtually no grappling exchanges—an exploitable gap for well‐rounded wrestlers.

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Jack Hermansson

Background

• Age: 37
• Country: Norway (Born in Uddevalla, Sweden)
• Fighting Style: Technical grappler with heavy top pressure, solid clinch work, and durable chin

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Loss vs Gregory Rodrigues (Decision) on June 28, 2025
2. Win vs Joe Pyfer (Unanimous Decision) on February 10, 2024
3. Loss vs Roman Dolidze (KO/TKO, R2 – 4:06) on December 3, 2022
4. Win vs Chris Curtis (Unanimous Decision) on July 23, 2022
5. Loss vs Sean Strickland (Split Decision) on February 5, 2022

Hermansson has alternated wins and losses against top‐tier competition, most recently dropping a hard-fought decision to Gregory Rodrigues. His breadth of experience includes five main-card appearances over the past three years, and he remains a former title challenger with a durable, patient approach.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (81%): Boasts one of the division’s best wrestling defenses, able to keep fights standing or regain position in the clinch.
• Significant Strike Defense (57%): More than half of incoming strikes are successfully avoided or absorbed safely.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 11:09 shows proficiency in late‐round wrestling control and grinding down opponents.

Weaknesses

• Striking Output & Accuracy (45%): Below‐average accuracy for someone without elite power, potentially allowing faster, more precise strikers to outpoint him.
• Age & Pace: At 37, his gas tank can dip against younger, high‐tempo fighters; first‐round finishes (10) in 24 wins (42%) suggest he sometimes starts slowly.

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Head-to-Head Implications

This matchup pits Orolbai’s explosive offense and submission instincts against Hermansson’s seasoned defense and grappling control. Orolbai must crack Hermansson early before the veteran’s takedown defense and cardio take over, while Hermansson will look to weather the storm, impose a grinding pace, and exploit Orolbai’s defensive holes on the feet. The contrasting archetypes ensure a compelling stylistic battle inside the ABHA Arena on November 22.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As of the latest update on November 13, 2025, the line at BetOnline.ag pins Myktybek Orolbai as the clear favorite and Jack Hermansson as the underdog:

• Myktybek Orolbai: -190 (American odds)
• Jack Hermansson: +165 (American odds)

Orolbai’s –190 tag means you must wager $190 to win $100; Hermansson’s +165 tag means a $100 bet returns $165 profit. The spread reflects Orolbai’s explosive finishing ability and unbeaten momentum in the UFC compared to Hermansson’s veteran résumé but recent inconsistency.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On
BetOnline.ag currently offers the most competitive lines for both fighters, with no juice reductions or extra fees. If you’re shopping for the best price on both the favorite and underdog, BetOnline.ag remains top choice—especially given the tight margin between Orolbai’s early favorite status and Hermansson’s bounce in value over the past 24 hours.

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Odds History & Line Movement

Tracking the line shifts reveals how early money and sharp action have influenced the market:

Myktybek Orolbai at BetOnline.ag:

• 2025-11-12 18:19 GMT: –200
• 2025-11-13 00:16 GMT: –170 (line movement toward Hermansson)
• 2025-11-13 07:49 GMT: –190 (favorite status reinforced)

Jack Hermansson at BetOnline.ag:

• 2025-11-12 18:19 GMT: +170
• 2025-11-13 00:16 GMT: +145 (shortening underdog line)
• 2025-11-13 07:49 GMT: +165 (underdog value slightly rebounding)

Key Takeaways:

• Orolbai opened more heavily favored at –200, but early underdog support drove his line to –170 before backing off slightly to –190.
• Hermansson saw a surge in backing that moved him from +170 to +145, then late adjustments settled at +165, offering better value for those eyeing an upset.
• These swings indicate sharp bettors testing both sides—first confidence in Hermansson’s veteran chops, then renewed faith in Orolbai’s finishing upside.

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Potential Payout & Implied Probability

If you had $1,000 riding on either fighter, here’s what you’d see in your account after a win:

• $1,000 on Orolbai at –190
  • Payout: $1,526 (your $1,000 stake + $526 profit)
  • Implied Chance: Approximately 66%

• $1,000 on Hermansson at +165
  • Payout: $2,650 (your $1,000 stake + $1,650 profit)
  • Implied Chance: Approximately 38%

Whether you back the rising Kyrgyz powerhouse or the seasoned Norwegian grinder, understanding these odds swings and payout scenarios is crucial for optimizing your UFC bet slip. BetOnline.ag’s current lines give bettors clear insight into the market’s respect for Orolbai’s momentum—and the value lurking behind Hermansson’s +165 underdog tag.