Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo UFC Betting Preview & Odds

Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, November 1, 2025, two gritty welterweights collide as Jeremiah Wells squares off against Themba Gorimbo on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama. The bout is set for the famed UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, and is slated to kick off around 10:00 pm ET (7:00 pm PT). As part of a seven-fight main card broadcast live on ESPN+, this clash will crown one warrior as the next contender to watch in the always-deep welterweight division.

Betting Odds

BetOnline.ag currently lists Themba Gorimbo as the -170 favorite, implying a roughly 63 percent implied probability that the Zimbabwean grappler will emerge victorious. Conversely, Jeremiah Wells carries +145 odds as the underdog, translating to about a 41 percent implied chance of pulling off the upset. Early line movement shows Gorimbo drifting slightly from -175 down to -170 over the morning of October 22, suggesting some bettors are backing Wells’ experience and submission prowess despite the numbers.

Fighter Profiles at a Glance

• Themba Gorimbo (14-5-0)
  • Age: 34 | Height: 6'1" (73") | Reach: 6'5" (77")
  • Style: Well-rounded MMA fighter with strong grappling base
  • Notable Stats:
  – Sig. Strike Accuracy: 61 percent
  – Takedown Accuracy: 65 percent
  – Takedown Defense: 82 percent
  • Recent Form: 3-1 across his last four outings, including a split-decision win over Niko Price and a first-round TKO of Pete Rodriguez.

• Jeremiah Wells (12-4-1)
  • Age: 37 | Height: 5'9" (69") | Reach: 6'2" (74")
  • Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with finishing instincts
  • Notable Stats:
  – Sig. Strike Accuracy: 43 percent
  – Takedown Defense: 80 percent
  – First-Round Finishes: 5 of 12 career wins
  • Recent Form: Sputtered with back-to-back losses in early 2024 but holds a win over Matthew Semelsberger via split decision in April 2023.

Why This Fight Matters

This matchup carries significant stakes for both men. Gorimbo, riding a wave of confidence after dominating grapplers and strikers alike, wants to solidify his position among the division’s top 15. His slick submission game, highlighted by six career tap-outs and a blistering first-round finish rate (five), makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone chasing the rankings. In contrast, Wells has shown flashes of dynamic striking power (five knockout victories) and black-belt pedigree on the mat, but recent losses exposed defensive holes against seasoned veterans.

With contrasting styles—Gorimbo’s high-output striking and relentless takedowns versus Wells’ scrappy guard work and punishing ground transitions—this fight promises fireworks. Oddsmakers favor Gorimbo to continue his surge, but Wells’ veteran savvy and finishing ability ensure that no scenario is off the table. Expect a compelling chess match, where each man’s grappling prowess and cardio will be tested under the bright lights of Las Vegas.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

As Jeremiah Wells and Themba Gorimbo prepare to collide in the octagon, contrasting styles and career trajectories make this welterweight showdown compelling. Gorimbo, the 34-year-old Zimbabwean MMA generalist, brings high-level grappling and efficient striking, while 37-year-old American Wells counters with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree and heavy hands. Below, we break down each fighter’s background, recent form and key strengths and weaknesses.

Themba Gorimbo

Background

• Age: 34
• Country: Zimbabwe
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a strong wrestling and submission base
• Physical Attributes: 6′1″ height, 77″ reach, 171 lb walk-around weight

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Dec 7, 2024: Loss to Vicente Luque via Submission (R1, 0:52)
• Oct 12, 2024: Win over Niko Price by Unanimous Decision
• May 18, 2024: Win over Ramiz Brahimaj by Unanimous Decision
• Feb 3, 2024: KO/TKO of Pete Rodriguez (R1, 0:32)
• May 20, 2023: Win over Takashi Sato by Unanimous Decision

Gorimbo is 4-1 across his last five UFC outings, avenging early UFC losses with three straight wins in 2024 before dropping a competitive scrap to Luque.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (61%): Lands a high percentage of significant strikes, underpinned by crisp combinations and distance control.
• Takedown Offense (65%) & Defense (82%): Elite wrestling numbers allow him to dictate where the fight goes—either grinding on top or stuffing opponents’ takedown attempts.
• Finishing Instincts: Five first-round finishes on his 14-win resume, including a lightning-fast TKO of Rodriguez.
• Cardio & Pace: An average fight time of 8:50 suggests he can maintain output well into deep waters.

Weaknesses

• Submission Defense Under Pressure: The loss to Luque exposed occasional lapses when scrambling off his back.
• Striking Defense (57%): While respectable, a sub-60% defense rate means top strikers can find openings if Gorimbo presses forward recklessly.

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Jeremiah Wells

Background

• Age: 37
• Country: United States (Philadelphia, PA)
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with evolving striking arsenal
• Physical Attributes: 5′9″ height, 74″ reach, 186 lb walk-around weight

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Feb 10, 2024: Loss to Max Griffin by Split Decision
• Aug 5, 2023: Loss to Carlston Harris via Submission (R3, 1:50)
• Apr 22, 2023: Win over Matthew Semelsberger by Split Decision
• Jun 18, 2022: KO/TKO of Court McGee (R1, 1:34)
• Feb 12, 2022: Submission of Mike Diamond (R1, 4:38)

Wells sits at 3-2 over his last five, struggling with consistency but showcasing his ability to finish both on the feet and the mat.

Strengths

• Finishing Diversity: Five knockouts and four submissions illustrate his two-way threat; first-round finishes in nearly half of his wins.
• Takedown Defense (80%): Strong scrambling and takedown prevention, vital against a wrestler like Gorimbo.
• Experience & Fight IQ: At 37, Wells leverages veteran savvy to navigate scrambles and conserve energy in deep rounds.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (43%) & Defense (49%): Below-average numbers in both categories expose him to volume strikers; nearly half of significant strikes land on him.
• Takedown Offense (44%): Less reliable in initiating ground exchanges, meaning he may struggle to impose his BJJ if Gorimbo stuff his setups.

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This stylistic crossroads—Gorimbo’s precise striking and grappling versus Wells’ submission creativity and veteran toughness—frames a classic MMA chess match. Each fighter’s recent form and statistical profile illuminate where advantages lie and vulnerabilities lurk, setting the stage for a high-stakes welterweight battle.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of October 22, 2025, Themba Gorimbo is installed as the -170 favorite over Jeremiah Wells, who checks in at +145 on the moneyline. These prices come courtesy of BetOnline.ag—the top-rated sportsbook for UFC wagering owing to its competitive odds, deep markets and user-friendly interface.

• Favorite: Themba Gorimbo (–170)
• Underdog: Jeremiah Wells (+145)

The line differential reflects bettors’ confidence in Gorimbo’s crisp striking and elite takedown skillset versus Wells’ veteran grappling and finishing upside.

Line Movement and Market Reaction

Tracking the odds movement over the course of October 22 reveals only modest shifts, but those shifts can hint at early betting patterns:

• Gorimbo:
  • 01:58 ET —175 → 08:06 ET —170
• Wells:
  • 01:58 ET +150 → 08:06 ET +145

While a five-dollar move on each side isn’t seismic, it indicates some influx of action on Wells as the underdog. Sharp bettors may be spotting value in Wells’ submission pedigree and experience advantages, causing oddsmakers to nudge the lines slightly in his direction.

Payout Scenarios

If you were to place a $1,000 wager on either fighter, here’s what you’d stand to win:

• Bet $1,000 on Gorimbo (–170)
  • Profit: $588
  • Total Return (Wager + Profit): $1,588

• Bet $1,000 on Wells (+145)
  • Profit: $1,450
  • Total Return (Wager + Profit): $2,450

These potential payouts illustrate why underdogs like Wells can be so enticing, even if their implied probability is lower.

Implied Probabilities

Without diving into the math details, the current lines suggest:

• Themba Gorimbo: Roughly a 63% chance to win
• Jeremiah Wells: Roughly a 41% chance to win

The gap underlines the public’s and pundits’ lean toward Gorimbo’s wrestling-led approach, yet the reasonable profit on Wells ensures plenty of bettors will take the longshot.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

For UFC Fight Night markets—especially when chasing early line moves—BetOnline.ag remains our top recommendation. They consistently offer:

• Sharper opening lines and minimal juice
• Quick adjustments to reflect sharp money
• A broad array of prop bets and parlay options

Betting on Gorimbo at –170 or Wells at +145 through BetOnline.ag ensures you’re getting among the most competitive odds available.

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By monitoring these modest line movements and understanding your risk/reward on each side, you can tailor your wager to whether you prioritize higher probability (Gorimbo) or bigger payout potential (Wells). Whichever path you choose, staying informed on odds history and implied probabilities is key to making smarter UFC bets.