UFC Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam Odds & Pick

Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam fight analysis

Introduction

The flyweight showdown between Allan Nascimento and Rafael Estevam is one of the most intriguing matchups on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama, set to take place on Saturday, November 1, 2025, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. This bout is scheduled to begin at 4:00 PM PT (23:00 UTC) and promises fireworks as two dynamic Brazilian contenders collide under the bright lights of the Apex arena.

Allan Nascimento, entering as the favorite at –135 with BetOnline.ag, holds a professional MMA record of 21–6–0. A veteran of striking exchanges, Nascimento boasts a 60% significant strike accuracy and an impressive first-round finish rate of over 50%, having secured 12 finishes inside the opening five minutes of his encounters. His five-year tenure in the Octagon has been marked by sharp stand-up work, a fearless approach to scrambles, and a penchant for grinding out unanimous decisions when the finish doesn’t materialize early.

On the other side of the Octagon stands Rafael Estevam, the underdog at +115, who arrives undefeated with a spotless 14–0–0 ledger. The #15-ranked flyweight is riding high after three straight unanimous decision victories, showcasing a well-rounded skill set highlighted by a 54% striking accuracy and a noteworthy 39% takedown success rate. At 29 years old, Estevam’s blend of relentless volume, solid takedown defense (67%), and growing confidence under the bright lights make him a dangerous adversary for anyone in the division.

Key Details at a Glance

• Date & Time: November 1, 2025, 4:00 PM PT / 23:00 UTC
• Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV, United States
• Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lb)
• Event: UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama – Main Card

Favorites vs. Underdogs

• Favorite: Allan Nascimento (–135)
  • Record: 21–6–0
  • Style: Striker
  • Notable: 14 submission wins, 12 first-round finishes
• Underdog: Rafael Estevam (+115)
  • Record: 14–0–0
  • Style: MMA all-rounder
  • Notable: Undefeated, strong takedown defense

This matchup represents a classic striker-versus-grappler narrative, though both fighters have proven adept in multiple facets of MMA. Nascimento’s power punching and submission skills contrast sharply with Estevam’s volume striking and defensive wrestling. As these two Brazilian warriors lock horns, bettors and fight fans alike will be watching how the odds shift from openers and early line movements to the final horn.

In the following sections, we’ll break down key statistics, analyze each fighter’s strengths and vulnerabilities, and provide expert picks to help you make an informed wager on this pivotal flyweight clash.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Allan Nascimento: The Veteran Submission Artist

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Striker with world-class submission prowess

Allan Nascimento entered the UFC on October 30, 2021, and quickly made his mark with lightning-fast submissions and relentless pressure. Although primarily known for his sharp stand-up, Nascimento’s ground game has accounted for 14 of his 21 career wins, and 12 of those finishes came inside the first round.

Recent Form

1. May 31, 2025 – Win (Decision – Unanimous) vs. Jafel Filho
2. Jan. 14, 2023 – Win (Submission, R1 – 3:16) vs. Carlos Hernandez
3. May 14, 2022 – Win (Decision – Unanimous) vs. Jake Hadley
4. Oct. 30, 2021 – Loss (Decision – Split) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

After rebounding from his lone UFC setback against Ulanbekov, Nascimento has reeled off three consecutive wins, showcasing improved wrestling defense and a more measured striking approach when the early finish eludes him.

Strengths

• Submission Threat: 14 submission victories; constantly hunting for chokes and armbars.
• Finishing Instinct: 12 first-round stoppages; exceptional ability to capitalize on early openings.
• Striking Accuracy: 60% significant strike accuracy, ranking among the top of the flyweight division in precision.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense: 31% — opponents who force scrambles or chain wrestling exchanges have found success.
• Takedown Offense: 24% — comparatively low rate can make it difficult to dictate ground control against elite grapplers.
• Striking Defense: 51% significant strike defense, leaving him open to volume punchers in deep waters.

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Rafael Estevam: The Undefeated All-Round Contender

Background

• Age: 29
• Born: Macapá, Brazil
• Fighting Style: Well-Rounded MMA with slick takedown defense and high output striking

Estevam made his UFC debut on April 22, 2023, and has remained unbeaten, combining unrelenting pace with a technically sound grappling base that keeps him safe in scrambles.

Recent Form

1. Aug. 2, 2025 – Win (Decision – Unanimous) vs. Felipe Bunes
2. Feb. 15, 2025 – Win (Decision – Unanimous) vs. Jesus Aguilar
3. Nov. 18, 2023 – Win (Decision – Unanimous) vs. Charles Johnson

Rafael has showcased three consecutive decision victories, blending volume striking with takedown defense to nullify opponents’ offense over fifteen-minute fights.

Strengths

• Unbeaten Record: 14–0–0; confidence and composure under pressure.
• Takedown Defense: 67%, among the league leaders in successfully thwarting wrestling-heavy strategies.
• Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 13:06 with high strike volume, capable of overwhelming opponents in later rounds.
• Balanced Finishing: 4 KOs and 3 submissions; versatile threat on feet and ground.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: 47% — vulnerable to precise counterstrikers if he overcommits.
• Striking Accuracy: 54%, solid but not elite; can struggle against technically superior boxers.
• Early Finishes: Only 1 first-round stoppage; less explosive in the opening stanza compared to some flyweights.

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This clash pits Nascimento’s submission-centric aggression against Estevam’s unbeaten, well-rounded toolkit. The power and precision of Nascimento’s strikes and chokes will be tested by Estevam’s ironclad takedown defense and relentless pace, setting up a strategic duel that could tilt on a single exchange or scramble.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Allan Nascimento: -135 (BetOnline.ag)
• Rafael Estevam: +115 (BetOnline.ag)

As of the latest update, Allan Nascimento is the favorite at -135, while Rafael Estevam remains the underdog at +115. The line gap of 250 points reflects the oddsmakers’ lean toward Nascimento’s submission power and championship-level experience. BetOnline.ag currently offers the most competitive prices for both fighters, making it the best sportsbook to lock in these lines before they potentially shift again.

Line Movement Analysis

A review of the odds history at BetOnline.ag reveals notable swings over the past 48 hours:

Allan Nascimento

• Oct. 22, 15:09 –105
• Oct. 22, 15:19 –110
• Oct. 22, 15:39 –115
• Oct. 23, 04:09 –125
• Oct. 23, 08:16 –135

Rafael Estevam

• Oct. 22, 15:09 –115
• Oct. 22, 15:19 –110
• Oct. 22, 15:39 –105
• Oct. 23, 04:09 +105
• Oct. 23, 08:16 +115

Key observations:

• Both fighters opened near pick’em odds (around -105 to -115) when the market first went live.
• By early morning on Oct. 23, Nascimento’s line drifted deeper into favorite territory, moving from –115 to –135.
• Estevam experienced a dramatic shift from a slight favorite at –105 into underdog territory at +115.

These swings suggest significant money coming in on Nascimento, prompting sportsbooks to adjust the line to balance the book. Bettors who backed the favorite early at –105/–110 are now sitting on more valuable credit lines. Conversely, those eyeing Estevam can still find attractive +115 value before the public potentially pushes him down further.

Payout & Implied Probabilities

If you had to put down $1,000 on either fighter right now:

• Wager on Allan Nascimento (-135)
  • Total Payout: $1,740 (including stake)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~57%
• Wager on Rafael Estevam (+115)
  • Total Payout: $2,150 (including stake)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~47%

The contrasting payouts underscore the risk/reward dynamic. A $1,000 bet on Nascimento secures a smaller profit but a higher likelihood of success, while Estevam’s underdog line offers a bigger payday if he can maintain his perfect record.

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By tracking these line movements and understanding where sharp money is landing, bettors can make more informed decisions. Whether you’re chasing the payout on Estevam or riding the favorites train with Nascimento, BetOnline.ag remains the top choice to capitalize on these odds before they change again.