Alice Ardelean vs Montserrat Ruiz Prediction & Odds

Alice Ardelean vs Montserrat Ruiz fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, November 1, 2025, fight fans will descend upon the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, as part of UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama. Locked in the women’s strawweight division on the Preliminary Card, rising Romanian standout Alice Ardelean squares off against Mexico’s relentless scrapper Montserrat Ruiz. The action kicks off at 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PT), with both athletes looking to climb the strawweight ladder and make a statement in the stacked 115 lb weight class.

Heading into this showdown, Alice Ardelean enters as the clear betting favorite, sporting -400 odds at BetOnline.ag. The 33-year-old striker made her promotional debut back in July 2024 and has quickly racked up a 10-7-0 professional record, including four knockouts and four submissions. Her 44% significant striking accuracy combined with a stout 58% strike defense make her a dangerous opponent for anyone trying to pressure her. At 63 inches tall with a 62-inch reach, Ardelean uses distance control and crisp combinations to outpoint foes over three full rounds. Despite two decision losses in 2024, she bounced back emphatically with a unanimous decision over Rayanne Dos Santos in May 2025, proving her evolution under the UFC spotlight.

On the other side of the Octagon stands Montserrat Ruiz, the underdog at +330 odds. Hailing from León, Mexico, the 30-year-old wrestling specialist brings a 10-4-0 record into this clash. Ruiz boasts an impressive 83% takedown accuracy, though her takedown defense sits at a modest 33%. With three career knockouts and two submission victories, Ruiz is capable of finishing fights in multiple ways. Her most recent setbacks—a pair of KO/TKO losses to Eduarda Moura and Jaqueline Amorim—underscore a vulnerability to heavy hitters, but her relentless pace and grappling pedigree make her a live dog if she can impose her will on the mat. Ruiz’s average fight time of 9:08 suggests she often accelerates the pace early, seeking to grind opponents down or secure early finishes.

This stylistic contrast—Ardelean’s measured striking versus Ruiz’s wrestling onslaught—sets the stage for a compelling three-round battle. Can Ardelean maintain distance, stick to her striking game plan, and avoid the takedown? Or will Ruiz bully her way inside, secure clinch control, and rack up points on the canvas? As the favorite, Ardelean has everything to lose, while Ruiz enters free to swing for the fences. Tune in live to see which game plan prevails under the bright lights of the UFC Apex.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alice Ardelean vs Montserrat Ruiz can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Alice Ardelean – “The Romanian Hammer”

Age: 33
Country: Romania
Fighting Style: Striker

Background & Recent Form

Alice Ardelean made her UFC debut in July 2024 and has rattled off a 10-7-0 professional record, showcasing a well-rounded arsenal of knockouts and submissions. In her last three outings:

• May 31, 2025: Defeated Rayanne Dos Santos via unanimous decision (3 rounds) – bounced back with a crisp, distance-based striking display.
• Oct. 19, 2024: Lost to Melissa Martinez by unanimous decision (3 rounds) – struggled to impose her will on the inside.
• July 27, 2024: Fell to Shauna Bannon by split decision (3 rounds) – competitive but edged out in tight striking exchanges.

Strengths

• Striking Efficiency: 44% significant strike accuracy – lands nearly half of her attempted power shots and jabs.
• Defensive Prowess: 58% significant strike defense – excellent head movement and footwork limit damage.
• Takedown Defense: 88% – bulldozes through opponents’ wrestling entries, forcing fights to stay upright.
• Cardio & Endurance: Average fight time of 15:00 minutes indicates exceptional conditioning to maintain a high pace over three full rounds.

Weaknesses

• Lack of Early Finishes: Zero first-round stoppages – tends to rely on point-fighting rather than explosive power early.
• Takedown Offense (50% accuracy): Can struggle to mix in her own takedowns, allowing strong grapplers to dictate positioning.
• Close Decision Vulnerability: Two of her three UFC bouts have gone the distance, with narrow verdicts not always in her favor.

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Montserrat Ruiz – “La Pantera”

Age: 30
Country: Mexico
Fighting Style: MMA (Wrestler/Grappler)

Background & Recent Form

A former Regional strawweight standout, Ruiz enters the Octagon with a 10-4-0 record. Her most recent five fights:

• Nov. 4, 2023: KO/TKO loss to Eduarda Moura (Round 2, 2:14) – showcased grappling but succumbed to heavy strikes.
• Aug. 12, 2023: KO/TKO loss to Jaqueline Amorim (Round 3, 3:41) – fatigue and striking gaps exposed late.
• July 17, 2021: KO/TKO loss to Amanda Lemos (Round 1, 0:35) – caught cold by a surging power punch.
• Mar. 20, 2021: Unanimous decision win over Cheyanne Vlismas (3 rounds) – controlled the mat, showcased wrestling acumen.

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy: 83% – one of the highest rates in the strawweight division, able to dictate where the fight takes place.
• Finishing Instincts: Five career stoppages (3 KO, 2 SUB) – dangerous in scramble situations.
• Early Pace: Average fight time of 9:08 – explosive start, seeks to overwhelm opponents before the later rounds.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense: 38% – porous guard and lapses in head movement leave her open to counterstrikes.
• Takedown Defense: 33% – vulnerable when opponents reverse or defend her wrestling pressure.
• Strike Accuracy: 27% – low finish rate on strikes, often missing power shots that leave her trailing on the scorecards.
• Durability Concerns: Three recent KO/TKO losses highlight a susceptibility to punch-heavy strikers.

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Bottom Line: Ardelean’s polished striking and elite takedown defense clash with Ruiz’s relentless wrestling and finishing drive. This bout presents a classic striker vs. grappler puzzle: can Ardelean keep the fight standing and extend to decision, or will Ruiz bulldoze her way to the canvas and force ground-and-pound chaos?

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As it stands on October 22, 2025, the betting market at BetOnline.ag pins Alice Ardelean as the clear favorite and Montserrat Ruiz as the underdog in this women’s strawweight clash:

• Alice Ardelean: –400 (BetOnline.ag)
• Montserrat Ruiz: +330 (BetOnline.ag)

The substantial gap between –400 and +330 underscores Ardelean’s perceived dominance—bookmakers assign her roughly an 80% chance to win—while Ruiz carries underdog status, with an implied probability near 23%.

Odds History & Line Movement

Since opening, the lines for this bout have remained remarkably stable, hovering at –400 for Ardelean and +330 for Ruiz across multiple snapshots at BetOnline.ag. There have been no large swings, indicating:

• Balanced action on both sides
• No late-breaking news altering public perception
• Confidence in Ardelean’s striking pedigree and Ruiz’s vulnerability to heavy hitters

This stability suggests that bettors and sharp money alike are in agreement about each fighter’s chances, and that there’s been no significant shift in sentiment since the lines dropped. If you’re looking to lock in a price, the market consensus at BetOnline.ag seems unlikely to shift drastically before fight night.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

While several sportsbooks may carry these lines, BetOnline.ag stands out for its:

• Competitive odds matching the current market consensus
• Straightforward interface for American odds
• Reliable affiliate links (record.betonlineaffiliates.ag)
• Fast payouts and varied banking options

If you’re contemplating a wager, BetOnline.ag offers the most direct route to these exact prices without hidden line slippage or hefty juice.

Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to put on the line, here’s what each side nets you:

• Betting $1,000 on Alice Ardelean (–400):
  – Potential profit: $250
  – Total return with stake: $1,250

• Betting $1,000 on Montserrat Ruiz (+330):
  – Potential profit: $3,300
  – Total return with stake: $4,300

These figures highlight the risk/reward trade-off: a conservative stake on Ardelean locks in a modest upside, while a swing on Ruiz can yield a hefty payout if she pulls off the upset. Remember, the implied win probabilities from these lines sit at roughly 80% for Ardelean and 23% for Ruiz—so you’re essentially weighing heavy favorite certainty against underdog upside.

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By understanding the current odds landscape, line movement (or lack thereof), and bankroll implications, you can make a more informed bet ahead of Alice Ardelean vs. Montserrat Ruiz at UFC Fight Night on November 1, 2025.