UFC Radtke vs Frunza Preview: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Charles Radtke vs Daniel Frunza Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

Get ready for an explosive Welterweight clash as Charles “Charlie” Radtke takes on Romania’s rising Muay Thai specialist Daniel Frunza on Saturday, November 1, 2025. This non–title bout headlines the main card of UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama, live from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The action kicks off at 11:00 PM ET, and promises fireworks as two heavy hitters square off in the cage.

Venue & Date

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama
• Date: Saturday, November 1, 2025
• Time: 11:00 PM Eastern Time
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Card Position: Main Card, Welterweight Bout

Betting Odds & Title Contenders

Entering this showdown, Charlie Radtke is installed as the betting favorite at -140 (BetOnline.ag), while the confident underdog Daniel Frunza sits at +120. Radtke’s gaudy 10-5 (0) professional record includes five first-round finishes, showcasing his thunderous power. Frunza, at 9-3 (0) with eight knockouts, counters with crisp striking and a relentless finishing instinct.

Whether you trust the proven UFC veteran in Radtke, or the surging newcomer in Frunza, this matchup has become one of the most talked-about undercard bouts of the evening. Both fighters enter this contest eager to bounce back: Radtke looking to rebound from a second-round TKO loss to Mike Malott in May, and Frunza aiming to avenge his own doctor’s stoppage defeat against Rhys McKee on April 5, 2025.

Why You Can’t Miss This Fight

• Striking vs. Striking: With zero takedown attempts logged by either fighter in the UFC, expect a stand-and-bang affair.
• Finishing Potential: Combined, they boast 13 first-round stoppages. One punch could change everything.
• Momentum Shift: A win here propels the victor toward ranked contention in the highly competitive 170-pound division.

This Welterweight battle is more than just another undercard matchup—it’s a defining moment for both athletes. Radtke will look to prove that his power and experience can carry him back to the win column, while Frunza seeks to validate his rapid rise and establish himself as a legitimate threat in the UFC’s stacked welterweight roster.

Buckle up for what promises to be a high-octane striking duel under the bright lights of the UFC APEX. Whether you’re siding with the favorite or banking on the underdog’s upset, Radtke vs Frunza is set to deliver non-stop action from bell to bell.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Charles Radtke vs Daniel Frunza can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Daniel Frunza: The Rising Romanian Powerhouse

Age: 30 • Hometown: Iași, Romania • Style: Muay Thai
Height: 6'1" (73") • Reach: 6'1" (73") • UFC Debut: Apr. 5, 2025
Pro Record: 9–3–0 (8 KOs, 0 Subs)

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts):

• 2025-04-05   Loss  TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage) vs. Rhys McKee
• Prior to UFC   3 wins by KO/TKO, 1 loss by stoppage, 1 win by decision

Frunza burst onto the UFC scene with flashy Muay Thai clinch work and thunderous leg kicks, but ran into trouble in his promotional debut against McKee when a doctor’s stoppage ended the fight at 5:00 of Round 1. Before that, he rattled off multiple knockout victories on the European circuit, showcasing an aggressive one-punch finishing instinct that has earned him eight career knockouts—an 89% KO rate.

Strengths:

• Elite Power: 8 of 9 wins by KO/TKO—if he lands flush, fights end.
• Size & Range: Four-inch height advantage over Radtke, long limbs for winging kicks and straight punches.
• Striking Defense: 57% significant strike defense helps him evade incoming shots.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Accuracy: 40% success rate—below the UFC welterweight average of ~45–50%.
• No Ground Game: 0% takedown offense, relies purely on stand-up; could be exposed by wrestling.
• Takedown Defense: 60%—susceptible to elite grapplers or heavy‐top pressure.

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Charles Radtke: The Seasoned American Finisher

Age: 34 • Hometown: Lake Forest, California, USA • Style: Power Striker / Finisher
Height: 5'9" (69") • Reach: 6'0" (72") • UFC Debut: Sep. 10, 2023
Pro Record: 10–5–0 (5 KOs, 2 Subs)

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts):

• 2025-05-10   Loss  KO/TKO vs. Mike Malott (R2, 0:26)
• 2024-11-09   Win  KO/TKO vs. Matthew Semelsberger (R1, 0:51)
• 2024-06-08   Loss  KO/TKO vs. Carlos Prates (R1, 4:47)
• 2024-02-03   Win  KO/TKO vs. Gilbert Urbina (R1, 4:47)
• 2023-09-09   Win  Decision vs. Mike Diamond (UD, 3 Rds)

Radtke has become known for an all-or-nothing approach—either putting opponents away or getting caught himself. His five first-round finishes demonstrate his explosive power, and his two submission victories hint at some grappling chops. However, three knockout losses over his last five indicate a somewhat porous chin when facing equally heavy hitters.

Strengths:

• Finishing Instinct: 7 of 10 wins ended early, five of them in Round 1—he starts fast and hard.
• Experience: Five UFC fights already under his belt; knows the cage speed and pressure.
• Versatility: Holds two submission wins, suggesting he can mix in grappling if needed.

Weaknesses:

• Chin Vulnerability: Three stoppage losses in last five outings—must tighten defense against big shots.
• Inconsistency: Alternating wins and losses; streaky performances make him unpredictable.
• Age & Gas Tank: At 34, may struggle to maintain explosiveness if the fight extends beyond early rounds.

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Head-to-Head Key Points

• Striking Duel Likely: Neither fighter has recorded a takedown in the UFC; expect stand-up fireworks.
• Reach & Height Edge: Frunza’s length advantage (73" vs. 72" reach and 4" height) can keep Radtke at bay.
• Finishing Potential: Combined 15 first-round stoppages; one clean shot could end it quickly.

This clash pits the hungry newcomer’s power and range against the veteran finisher’s experience and relentlessness. Both have glaring vulnerabilities—Frunza’s lack of grappling and Radtke’s chin—but the fighter who better exploits those holes will walk out of the UFC Apex with momentum in the deep welterweight division.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• Charlie Radtke: -140 (Favorite)
• Daniel Frunza: +120 (Underdog)
• Bookmaker: BetOnline.ag

As of the latest update, Charles “Charlie” Radtke is the clear betting favorite at -140, while Daniel Frunza carries the underdog tag at +120. The difference of 260 “odd points” reflects the market’s confidence in Radtke’s experience and finishing power versus Frunza’s youthful momentum and knockout resume.

Line Movement Analysis

Reviewing the odds history from BetOnline.ag reveals some notable swings over the past 48 hours:

Daniel Frunza (Underdog)

• Oct 22, 22:27 – +150
• Oct 22, 22:50 – +170 (one of the biggest underdog spikes)
• Oct 22, 22:56 – +135
• Oct 23, 00:01 – +125 (shortening as bettors backed him)
• Oct 23, 00:08 – +135
• Oct 23, 08:00 – +120

Charles Radtke (Favorite)

• Oct 22, 22:27 – -175
• Oct 22, 22:50 – -200 (strong favorite)
• Oct 22, 22:56 – -155
• Oct 23, 00:01 – -145 (market softens slightly on Radtke)
• Oct 23, 00:08 – -155
• Oct 23, 08:00 – -140

Key takeaways:

• Frunza’s line briefly jumped to +170, suggesting early skepticism, then steadily shortened as sharps showed interest.
• Radtke peaked as a –200 favorite but saw his line trimmed back to –140, indicating balanced money on both sides.

Payout & Implied Probability

If you back Charlie Radtke with a $1,000 wager at -140, your profit would be roughly $714, for a total return of $1,714. His odds imply he has about a 58% chance to win.

If you side with Daniel Frunza and risk $1,000 at +120, your profit would be $1,200, for a total return of $2,200. His implied probability sits near 45%.

Best Sportsbook Recommendation

BetOnline.ag stands out for its competitive MMA lines and live betting features. They consistently adjust odds swiftly to match sharp action, offering some of the tightest spreads in the industry. If you’re hunting for value on underdog swings or leaning into Radtke’s favorite status, BetOnline.ag provides a reliable platform with rapid in-play updates.

Betting Strategy Insights

• Backing the Favorite: Radtke’s odds have softened from –200 to –140, so early bettors on Radtke locked in better value. Fresh money on his line at –140 still offers a reasonable return for a fighter with proven power.
• Hunting Underdog Value: Frunza’s line has shortened consistently, but +120 still represents an attractive payout given his finishing upside and physical advantages. If you believe he can land the big shot, that underdog price is enticing.

Whether you lean toward the seasoned power of Radtke or the explosive underdog upside of Frunza, tracking odds movement and choosing a sportsbook like BetOnline.ag will help you maximize your bet’s potential return.