Blachowicz vs Guskov Odds Analysis & AI Pick | UFC 323

Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov Fight Analysis

Event Details

On Sunday, December 7, 2025, at 03:00 UTC (7:00 PM local PT on December 6) the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, will play host to the highly anticipated light heavyweight clash between former champion Jan Blachowicz and rising knockout artist Bogdan Guskov. This bout is featured on the Main Card of UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2, promising fans a hard-hitting encounter in the 205-pound division.

Introduction

As the UFC’s Light Heavyweight landscape continues to evolve, this bout pits seasoned veteran Jan “Polish Power” Blachowicz (#5 ranked) against surging contender Bogdan “Ruthless” Guskov (#11 ranked). Blachowicz—once a titleholder and known for his crushing power and balanced striking grappling game—looks to rebound after a decision loss to Carlos Ulberg in March. Meanwhile, Guskov enters on the heels of two knockout wins in 2025, aiming to solidify his place among the division’s elite by upsetting the more experienced Pole.

Blachowicz arrives with a career record of 29-11-1, boasting 9 knockouts, 9 submissions, and an average fight time of 13 minutes, 11 seconds. His 50% significant strike accuracy and 69% takedown defense underline a fighter who can both stand and trade or dictate the distance on the mat. At age 42, his experience is unquestionable—but physical attributes such as his 78-inch reach and refined game plan will face a stern test against Guskov’s youthful relentlessness.

Guskov, aged 33, carries an 18-3-0 record into this matchup, with an eye-popping 15 knockout victories (13 in Round 1) and flawless striking defense numbers. His 51% significant strike accuracy coupled with a tidy 50% defense underline his ability to both land and avoid heavy blows. Despite a 0% takedown success rate in the UFC, his relentless forward pace and finishing instincts have carved a path toward contention—and he enters this fight as the underdog with positive odds.

Betting Odds Snapshot

• Favorite: Jan Blachowicz at -125 (BetOnline.ag) to -120 (Caesars)
• Underdog: Bogdan Guskov at +105 (BetOnline.ag) to +100 (Caesars)

Sharp money has slightly shifted the lines in recent days, but Blachowicz remains the consensus favorite across major books such as DraftKings (-122) and FanDuel (-113). Guskov, however, has attracted optimistic backers banking on his power output and first-round finishing prowess.

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This introduction sets the stage for a classic matchup of experience versus explosiveness. In the sections that follow, we’ll break down each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, stylistic matchups, and key betting angles to help you make an informed pick for this pivotal light heavyweight showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Jan Blachowicz – The Veteran Powerhouse

Age: 42
Country: Poland
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with elite grappling and heavy hands
Physicals: 74" height, 78" reach, 205 lb

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Mar. 2025: Loss vs. Carlos Ulberg – Decision (Unanimous)
• Jul. 2023: Loss vs. Alex Pereira – Decision (Split)
• Dec. 2022: Loss vs. Magomed Ankalaev – Decision (Split)
• May 2022: Win vs. Aleksandar Rakic – KO/TKO (R3, 1:11)
• Oct. 2021: Loss vs. Glover Teixeira – Submission (R2, 3:02)

Jan has gone 1-4 over his last five outings, his lone highlight a crushing third-round KO of Aleksandar Rakic. Multiple razor-thin decision defeats to up-and-comers highlight both his durability and the razor’s edge of elite light heavyweight competition.

Strengths

• Balanced Offense: 50% significant strike accuracy, mixing kicks, elbows and power punches
• Elite Grappling: 49% takedown accuracy coupled with 69% takedown defense makes him difficult to dominate on the mat
• Finishing Instincts: 18 finishes (9 KO, 9 Sub) in 31 career wins; veteran composure in late rounds
• Durability & Ring IQ: Rarely leaves gaps; savvy in distance management and counter-striking

Weaknesses

• Declining Output: At 42, his volume has dipped—average fight time is 13:11, indicating fewer finishes early
• Decision Vulnerability: Three split/unclear decisions lost suggest difficulty convincing judges against dynamic opponents
• Pace & Cardio Concerns: While veteran savvy helps, he has struggled to maintain high output for three full rounds against younger foes

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Bogdan Guskov – The Relentless Finisher

Age: 33
Country: Uzbekistan
Fighting Style: Pressure-heavy striker with one-punch KO power
Physicals: 75" height, 76" reach, 205 lb

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Jul. 2025: Win vs. Nikita Krylov – KO/TKO (R1, 4:18)
• Jan. 2025: Loss vs. Billy Elekana – Decision
• Apr. 2024: Win vs. Ryan Spann – KO/TKO (R2, 3:16)
• Feb. 2024: Win vs. Zac Pauga – KO/TKO (R1, 3:38)
• Sep. 2023: Loss vs. Volkan Oezdemir – Submission (R1, 3:46)

Guskov sits at 3-2 in his last five, each victory via knockout and both defeats by decision or submission. His violent first-round finishes have become his calling card.

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 15 of 18 wins by KO/TKO, 13 first-round stoppages demonstrating fight-ending explosiveness
• Striking Efficiency: 51% significant strike accuracy—one of the top marks in the division
• Front-Foot Pressure: Constant forward movement overwhelms slower opponents
• Resilience: Only three losses in 21 fights; remains dangerous even when pressured

Weaknesses

• Grappling Inexperience: 0% takedown accuracy and only 50% takedown defense; susceptible to wrestle-heavy game plans
• Ground Vulnerability: Submission loss to Oezdemir underlines the risk if taken down early
• Endurance Question Marks: Heavy early output leaves questions about late-round gas tank, despite an official 15:00 average fight time

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Style Clash & Key Takeaways

This fight boils down to experience vs. explosiveness. Blachowicz’s veteran grappling and balanced striking must neutralize Guskov’s relentless pressure and one-punch power. If Jan can drag the fight into deep waters—utilizing his superior takedowns and clinch work—he mitigates Guskov’s KO threat. Conversely, Guskov’s optimal path to victory is to keep it standing, cut off the cage, and unleash early finishing strikes before Jan’s grappling acumen slows the pace. Bettors should weigh Blachowicz’s proven toolkit against Guskov’s high-variance, high-reward power game.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Lines

• Jan Blachowicz (Favorite)

  • BetOnline.ag: -125
  • BetMGM: -110
  • Bovada: -115
  • FanDuel: -113
  • DraftKings: -122
  • Caesars: -120

• Bogdan Guskov (Underdog)

  • BetOnline.ag: +105
  • BetMGM: -110
  • Bovada: -105
  • FanDuel: -113
  • DraftKings: +102
  • Caesars: +100

Blachowicz commands a clear favorite tag across most books, with his lowest juice at -110 (BetMGM) and heaviest at -125 (BetOnline.ag). Guskov sits on the other side as the underdog, with the most enticing return at +105 (BetOnline.ag) and a floor of +100 (Caesars).

Underdog Value & Favorite Shopping

If you’re backing Guskov, BetOnline.ag offers the best underdog price at +105—meaning a $1,000 wager returns $2,050 total. For those siding with Blachowicz, the sharpest favorite line is -110 at BetMGM or FanDuel, translating to a potential return of $1,909 on a $1,000 stake.

• Best underdog sportsbook: BetOnline.ag (+105)
• Best favorite sportsbook: BetMGM or FanDuel (-110)

Line Movement & Market Sentiment

A look at the historical lines reveals significant swings, especially on BetOnline.ag:

• Blachowicz kicked off as a heavy -128 on Nov. 18, only to flip into underdog territory at +110 by Nov. 19, then settle back down to -125 by Nov. 24.
• Guskov mirrored that volatility, opening at +108, dipping as low as -130, then rebounding to +105.

These dramatic oscillations suggest early sharp action on both sides—smart money briefly pushed Blachowicz off favorite status before public bets and limit adjustments restored him. The later stability around -125/+105 indicates the market finding equilibrium as fight night approaches.

Implied Probabilities & Payout Scenarios

• Jan Blachowicz (-110 at BetMGM): Implied chance ~52%
  • $1,000 wager → $1,909 total payout
• Bogdan Guskov (+105 at BetOnline.ag): Implied chance ~49%
  • $1,000 wager → $2,050 total payout

Those probabilities reflect the market’s belief in Blachowicz’s edge but also underline how slim the gap is—Guskov carries nearly a 50/50 shot in bettors’ eyes when you factor the best available lines.

Key Takeaways for Bettors

• Line Shopping Pays: A $15 difference in juice on Blachowicz (-110 vs. -125) or a $5 swing on Guskov (+100 vs. +105) significantly alters your bottom line.
• Volatility Signals Opportunity: Early swings beyond a touchdown hint at initial sharp bets; late stabilization suggests where public money is locking odds.
• Balanced Risk/Reward: Betting Guskov offers a higher payout upside with slightly lower implied odds, while Blachowicz gives a steadier, more conservative route.

By combining line history with current pricing, bettors can pinpoint where the real value lies—whether that’s the veteran polish of Blachowicz at -110 or the high-upside power of Guskov at +105.