Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott UFC 323 Odds & Analysis

Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Sunday, December 7, 2025, fight fans will witness a pivotal Bantamweight clash as Henry Cejudo takes on rising contender Payton Talbott on the Main Card of UFC 323, headlined by Merab Dvalishvili vs. Yadong Song 2. The action gets underway at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the live broadcast set to begin at 7:00 PM PT (3:00 AM GMT). This matchup pairs a former two-division champion against an explosive young talent—and the odds reflect the stark contrast in recent momentum and betting public sentiment.

The Favorite: Payton Talbott (–250)

At 26 years old, Las Vegas native Payton Talbott (10-1-0) has rapidly climbed the Bantamweight ranks since his UFC debut in November 2023. Known for his aggressive striking, Talbott boasts a 55 % significant strike accuracy and has finished 7 of his 10 wins by knockout or TKO. Despite back-to-back unanimous decision losses in 2025 to Felipe Lima and Raoni Barcelos, his ability to end fights early—coupled with a 77 % takedown defense rate—has sportsbooks firmly on his side. Across major outlets like Bovada (–250), DraftKings (–278), and FanDuel (–265), Talbott is the prohibitive favorite, reflecting bettors’ confidence that his youth and power will overwhelm his veteran opponent.

The Underdog: Henry Cejudo (+210)

Opposite him stands Henry “Triple C” Cejudo (16-5-0), age 38, a former Olympic gold medalist and two-division UFC champion (Flyweight and Bantamweight). Though once the sport’s most dominant wrestler/striker hybrid, Cejudo has dropped three of his last four starts—including decision losses to Merab Dvalishvili and Yadong Song—leading oddsmakers to peg him as the underdog at +210 (Bovada, DraftKings). Despite a career KO/TKO rate of 50 % and a 60 % significant strike defense, questions remain about whether the 38-year-old can recapture peak form against an opponent two weight classes younger.

Stakes and Storylines

Beyond styles and statistics, this bout carries significant implications for the Bantamweight division hierarchy. A convincing win for Talbott could vault him into the Top 5 conversation and position him for Matthew Semelsberger or Marlon Vera next. For Cejudo, a victory would halt a two-fight skid and rejuvenate his title ambitions, potentially setting up a marquee showdown with current divisional standouts.

As anticipation builds, bettors and analysts alike will weigh Talbott’s raw explosiveness against Cejudo’s championship pedigree. Who will dictate the pace on the feet? Can the veteran wrestler neutralize Talbott’s power? And most importantly, which fighter will leave the T-Mobile Arena with momentum headed into 2026? The answers begin on December 7th—don’t miss a second of this defining Bantamweight showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Payton Talbott Profile

Age: 26
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Power striker with improving defensive wrestling

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• 2025-06-28: Loss vs Felipe Lima (Decision)
• 2025-01-18: Loss vs Raoni Barcelos (Unanimous Decision)
• 2024-06-29: Win vs Yanis Ghemmouri (KO/TKO, R1 – 0:19)
• 2024-03-23: Win vs Cameron Saaiman (KO/TKO, R2 – 0:21)
• 2023-11-18: Win vs Nick Aguirre (Submission, R3 – 0:58)

Talbott burst onto the UFC scene with three straight finishes—two knockouts and one submission—before dropping decisions in his last two outings. His early-career momentum showcased his one-punch power, but the step-up in competition has exposed some areas for growth.

Strengths

• Elite Power Striking: 7 of 10 career wins by KO/TKO; 55% significant strike accuracy
• Takedown Defense: Boasts a stout 77% takedown defense, frustrating wrestlers who try to slow him
• Finishing Instinct: A first-round finish rate, with one swifty opening-round stoppage on record

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense: Concedes 54% of opponents’ strikes, leaving him open to volume strikers
• Takedown Offense: Just 25% takedown accuracy limits his ability to change levels and mix grappling
• Endurance in Deep Waters: Average fight time of 10:16 suggests a drop in output if early offense stalls

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Henry Cejudo Profile

Age: 38
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Olympic-level wrestling blended with precise boxing

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• 2025-02-22: Loss vs Yadong Song (Unanimous Decision)
• 2024-02-17: Loss vs Merab Dvalishvili (Unanimous Decision)
• 2023-05-06: Loss vs Aljamain Sterling (Split Decision)
• 2020-05-09: Win vs Dominick Cruz (KO/TKO, R2 – 4:58)
• 2019-06-08: Loss vs Marlon Moraes (KO/TKO, R3 – 4:51)

A two-division champion and Olympic gold medalist, Cejudo’s five-fight skid doesn’t tell the whole story: each defeat came via decision, highlighting his durability and unwavering cardio even past the age of 35.

Strengths

• Defensive Wizardry: 60% significant strike defense; rarely takes big shots without recovery
• Wrestling Base: 31% takedown accuracy paired with 76% takedown defense—he dictates where the fight goes
• Championship Experience: Fights with the composure of a former two-weight champ, excels in grappling exchanges

Weaknesses

• Striking Output: Only 47% accuracy on significant strikes—below the division average in offense
• Aging Durability: At 38, the accumulation of damage and pace of younger fighters could wear him down
• Endurance vs. Power: Average fight time of 13:34 shows he’s comfortable late, but his finishing rate has dipped

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Head-to-Head Outlook

• Youth vs. Experience: Talbott’s explosive youth and knockout pedigree clash with Cejudo’s veteran savvy and wrestling credentials.
• Striker’s Approach vs. Wrestler’s Control: If Talbott lands early, he can end the fight swiftly; if Cejudo survives the opening salvo, he’ll look to grind the pace and exploit Talbott’s defensive gaps.
• Conditioning Battle: A fast start from Talbott could force Cejudo into a striking war, while Cejudo will aim to drag the fight into deep waters where his cardio and grappling edge shine.

Both fighters enter with clear blueprints: Talbott to overwhelm with power, Cejudo to neutralize threats and out‐last the storm. This clash of styles makes for a must-watch Bantamweight showdown.

Betting Odds and Odds History

Current Betting Lines

• Payton Talbott (Favorite):
  • Bovada / BetMGM: –250
  • DraftKings: –278
  • FanDuel: –265
  • BetOnline.ag / Caesars: –270

• Henry Cejudo (Underdog):
  • BetOnline.ag: +230
  • DraftKings: +225
  • Caesars: +220
  • Bovada: +210
  • BetMGM / FanDuel: +200

As it stands, Talbott is the prohibitive favorite across every major sportsbook, with the softest line of –250 (Bovada / BetMGM). Cejudo draws underdog billing, with the highest potential payout of +230 at BetOnline.ag.

Line Movement and Swing

• Talbott’s Market Action:
  At Bovada, Talbott opened around –230 on November 23, then vacillated between –230 and –260 throughout the evening before settling back at –250. The 30-point swing reflects heavy early money on him, then light pushback from value hunters.

• Cejudo’s Market Action:
  On the flip side, Cejudo’s Bovada line began near +190, climbed as high as +215, dipped back to +190, and now stands at +210. That volatility underscores bettors’ uncertainty: some see value on the veteran, others back the younger, fresher contender.

Neither fighter’s line has exhibited a sustained, one-way trend—both saw back-and-forth adjustments as pro-Talbott money battled pro-Cejudo sharps. The biggest swings (±25–30 points) happened in pre-game windows when regional bettors keyed in.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• Backing the Favorite (Talbott): BetMGM or Bovada at –250 offers the lowest juice and smallest house edge.
• Backing the Underdog (Cejudo): BetOnline.ag’s +230 is the top underdog price; it maximizes your upside if “Triple C” pulls the upset.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances

If you dial up a $1,000 wager today…

• On Payton Talbott (–250):
  You’d risk $1,000 to win $400, for a total return of $1,400.
  Implied probability: ≈71% chance to win.

• On Henry Cejudo (+230):
  You’d risk $1,000 to win $2,300, for a total return of $3,300.
  Implied probability: ≈30% chance to win.

Takeaway

The betting market clearly favors Payton Talbott—a 71-percent implied chance suggests public and sharp money agree on his path to victory. Yet Henry Cejudo’s +230 line at BetOnline.ag provides significant value for contrarian bettors convinced that championship pedigree and wrestling savvy can defy the odds. As always, monitor late money and any last-minute line shifts—those moves can reveal which side smarter money is backing before the cage door closes.