Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira fight analysis

Overview

Get ready for a thrilling Flyweight showdown as Brandon Moreno takes on Tatsuro Taira on the main card of UFC 323. This clash of styles and experience is scheduled for Sunday, December 7, 2025, at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Moreno, a seasoned veteran and former two-time Flyweight champion, will face Japan’s rising star Taira, who has quickly climbed into the top five of the division since his UFC debut in 2022. The bout will air on pay-per-view following a stacked undercard and is set to kick off around 4:15 AM UTC (7:15 PM PT / 10:15 PM ET on December 6).

When and Where

• Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
• Arena: T-Mobile Arena
• City: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
• Event: UFC 323 – Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 (Main Card)
• Estimated Start Time: 4:15 AM UTC (7:15 PM PT / 10:15 PM ET)

Fighters at a Glance

Tatsuro Taira (#5 Flyweight) – The Favorite

• Record: 17–1–0
• Notable Wins: Submission over Hyunsung Park, KO of Alex Perez
• Strengths: Elite submission skills (8 submission wins), 60% significant strike accuracy, 49% takedown accuracy
• UFC Price: Around –130 (DraftKings), –135 (BetMGM)

Brandon Moreno (#2 Flyweight) – The Underdog

• Record: 23–8–2
• Credentials: Two-time UFC Flyweight champion, high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
• Recent Form: Unanimous decision over Steve Erceg, key wins against Amir Albazi and a rematch win over Deiveson Figueiredo
• UFC Price: Approximately +110 (BetMGM & DraftKings), –104 (FanDuel)

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Taira enters as the slight favorite across major sportsbooks. On FanDuel, he sits at –122, while Moreno is priced as the underdog at –104. Over the past 48 hours, Taira’s line has shifted from –130 to –122 on FanDuel, reflecting growing confidence in the young Japanese contender. Meanwhile, Moreno’s odds crept from +102 into the –104 range, indicating some late money backing the veteran.

Key Storylines

• Experience vs. Youth: Moreno’s championship pedigree and five-year UFC tenure contrast sharply with Taira’s unbeaten UFC run and fearless aggression.
• Grappling Exchange: Both fighters boast high‐level submission arsenals. Moreno holds an 11‐submission tally, while Taira has finished eight opponents by tapout.
• Stand‐up Dynamics: Taira’s crisp striking accuracy (60%) will be tested by Moreno’s superior significant strike defense (61%).

As the clock ticks down to UFC 323, this Flyweight battle promises high stakes and high drama. Will Moreno’s championship savvy prevail, or will Taira’s rapid ascent continue with another statement victory? Stay tuned for a clash that could reshape the Flyweight division.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Tatsuro Taira – The Rising Contender

Age: 25
Country: Japan
Fighting Style: Submission-oriented grappler with evolving striking
UFC Record: 17-1-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Aug. 2, 2025: Win vs. Hyunsung Park – Submission (R2, 1:06)
• Oct. 12, 2024: Loss vs. Brandon Royval – Split Decision (R5, 5:00)
• Jun. 15, 2024: Win vs. Alex Perez – KO/TKO (R2, 2:59)
• Dec. 9, 2023: Win vs. Carlos Hernandez – KO/TKO (R2, 0:55)
• Jul. 8, 2023: Win vs. Edgar Chairez – Unanimous Decision (R3, 5:00)

Taira arrives in peak form, riding a four-fight win streak punctuated by quick finishes. His lone setback—a narrow split decision to Royval—came in a grueling five-round test that only sharpened his resolve.

Strengths:

• Finishing Instincts: Eight first-round finishes underscore his aggressive gameplan; five KOs and eight submissions show well-rounded fight-ending prowess.
• Striking Accuracy (60%): Connects on a high percentage of significant strikes, forcing opponents to respect his stand-up.
• Takedown Offense (49% Accuracy): Transitions seamlessly from striking to grappling, leading to submission opportunities.

Weaknesses:

• Significant Strike Defense (47%): Below-average defense rating means Taira can be vulnerable to high-volume strikers.
• Takedown Defense (45%): Susceptible when opponents press a wrestling attack—Moreno’s takedown defense will be key.
• Experience Gap: Only three years in the UFC compared to Moreno’s eight-year tenure; championship-round pacing remains untested.

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Brandon Moreno – The Seasoned Veteran

Age: 31
Country: Mexico
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with durable volume striking
UFC Record: 23-8-2

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Mar. 29, 2025: Win vs. Steve Erceg – Unanimous Decision (R5, 5:00)
• Nov. 2, 2024: Win vs. Amir Albazi – Unanimous Decision (R5, 5:00)
• Feb. 24, 2024: Loss vs. Brandon Royval – Split Decision (R5, 5:00)
• Jul. 8, 2023: Loss vs. Alexandre Pantoja – Split Decision (R5, 5:00)
• Jan. 21, 2023: Win vs. Deiveson Figueiredo – TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage, R3, 5:00)

Moreno remains battle-tested at the championship level, splitting his last four five-round contests against top-10 talent. His two most recent unanimous decision victories highlight supreme cardio and fight IQ.

Strengths:

• Durability & Defense: 61% significant strike defense and 64% takedown defense make him a tough puzzle to solve.
• Submission Prowess (11 Subs): High-level BJJ, capable of capitalizing on scrambles and close quarters—Moreno’s grappling is world class.
• Championship Experience: Two-time Flyweight champion; adept at navigating five rounds and championship pressure.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Accuracy (44%): Less precise in the stand-up exchanges; may struggle to deter Taira’s forward assault.
• Offensive Finishing Rate: Only eight first-round finishes over 23 UFC wins; slower starts could allow Taira’s early-fight aggression to flourish.
• Takedown Offense (44%): Average wrestling output may limit prolonged ground control against Taira’s takedown defense.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

This bout pits Taira’s explosive start and finishing hunger against Moreno’s championship mettle and defensive mastery. Watch for Taira to press the action early—Moreno must weather the storm, utilize his takedown defense, and drag the fight into deep waters where experience and pacing become decisive.

Odds and Betting Trends

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC 323’s main card, Tatsuro Taira is the consensus favorite, while Brandon Moreno sits as the underdog. Here’s a snapshot of the best available odds across top sportsbooks:

• Tatsuro Taira (Favorite)

  • Bovada: –117
  • FanDuel: –122
  • Caesars: –125
  • DraftKings: –130
  • BetMGM / BetOnline.ag: –135

• Brandon Moreno (Underdog)

  • BetOnline.ag: +115
  • BetMGM / DraftKings: +110
  • Caesars: +105
  • FanDuel: –104
  • Bovada: –103

Best Books to Back Each Fighter:

• For Taira, Bovada’s –117 line offers the lowest juice (i.e., the smallest negative number), meaning you risk less to chase the favorite.
• For Moreno, BetOnline.ag’s +115 line yields the highest return on an underdog play.

Line Movement & Key Swings

A look at the line history reveals notable shifts over the past week:

• On BetMGM, Taira opened at –110 but quickly climbed to –135 as sharp money poured in, a massive 225-point swing.
• FanDuel saw Taira move from –130 to –122 in the last 24 hours, signaling growing confidence.
• Moreno’s line on BetMGM inverted from a slight –110 favorite into a +110 underdog, reflecting heavy backing of Taira midweek.
• FanDuel also shifted Moreno from +102 into a narrow –104, indicating mixed money on each side.

These swings suggest early support for Moreno—perhaps from contrarian bettors—but heavier late wagering on Taira, especially at BetMGM and DraftKings.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

If you’re looking to put $1,000 down, here’s what you’d collect in total, including your stake:

• Tatsuro Taira at –117 (Bovada)
  – Total Payout: $1,854.70 (about $854.70 profit)

• Brandon Moreno at +115 (BetOnline.ag)
  – Total Payout: $2,150.00 (about $1,150.00 profit)

Implied Probabilities

Based on current odds, the fighters’ chances translate roughly to:

• Tatsuro Taira (~54–55%): As the favorite, he carries just over a 50/50 likelihood in the eyes of oddsmakers.
• Brandon Moreno (~46–48%): The underdog slot places him just under the 50% mark, offering value to those who believe his experience can tilt the scales.

Summary

• Favorite vs. Underdog: Taira is favored by most books, but Moreno’s +115 line at BetOnline.ag presents the juiciest underdog payout.
• Best Value:
  • If you back the favorite, lean toward Bovada’s –117.
  • If you prefer the upset, BetOnline.ag’s +115 on Moreno is the optimal play.
• Line Momentum: Early Moreno support gave way to heavier Taira backing late on. Watching any final line ticks can inform last-minute decisions.

Whether you’re fishing for a steady favorite return or chasing a big underdog payoff, these odds and recent movements should guide your wager ahead of this pivotal Flyweight clash.