UFC 323: Naimov vs Santos Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, December 6, 2025, an intriguing featherweight clash opens the Early Preliminary Card at UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2. Scheduled to take place at the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, this bout is slated to begin at approximately 7:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM ET, kicking off what promises to be a night of high-stakes action. As the lights rise in Sin City, all eyes will be on two contrasting fighters: the surging Brazilian striker Mairon Santos, installed as the clear betting favorite, and the resilient Tajikistani contender Muhammad Naimov, cast in the role of the underdog.

Meet the Favorite: Mairon Santos

At just 25 years old, Mairon “Santos Alves” Santos (17-1-0) has made a name for himself as one of Brazil’s most explosive featherweights. A pure striker with an impressive 46% significant strike accuracy and a 66% defense rate, Santos has finished eight opponents by knockout—four of those inside the opening round—and forced his adversaries to respect his power from the moment the cage door closes. Since making his UFC debut on August 24, 2024, he has rattled off three consecutive victories, including unanimous decision wins over Sodiq Yusuff and Francis Marshall. With each passing performance, he’s demonstrated not only his speed and precision but also his cardio, as evidenced by his 12-minute-10-second average fight time. Backed by a perfect 0% takedown accuracy (he simply doesn’t need to wrestle) and a sturdy 50% takedown defense, Santos will look to keep this contest on his feet, where he can pepper Naimov’s defenses and assert his striking superiority.

Meet the Underdog: Muhammadjon Naimov

Opposing him is Muhammadjon “The Tajik Tank” Naimov (13-3-0), a 30-year-old talent representing Tajikistan with a well-rounded MMA skill set. Naimov’s UFC tenure began on June 3, 2023, and he’s since compiled notable victories—including a first-round TKO of Erik Silva and unanimous-decision wins over Kaan Ofli and Bogdan Grad. Boasting a 36% takedown accuracy and a 68% takedown defense, Naimov can shift the fight to the mat if needed, threatening with two career submission wins. His average fight time of 11:25 shows he’s comfortable in the trenches, willing to grind through three full rounds and unleash late aggression. Despite a 41% striking accuracy and a middling 45% defense, his resilience and versatile approach make him a dangerous foil for any pure striker.

Betting Landscape & What’s at Stake

As of late November, sportsbooks have leaned heavily toward Santos: Caesars and BetOnline list him around –195 to –225, while FanDuel has him as steep as –245. By contrast, underdog Naimov is trading between +165 (Caesars) and +190 (BetOnline), offering a juicy payout for those banking on a grappling-heavy upset. Beyond the odds, this fight carries real divisional implications: a win for Santos cements his status as a top-15 contender and inches him closer to a title shot, while Naimov can reinvigorate his climb up the rankings by handing the buzzworthy Brazilian his first UFC loss. With styles that promise fireworks—striker versus grappler, speed versus durability—this opening bout could set the tone for an unforgiving night at the T-Mobile Arena.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Fighter Profiles & Matchup Analysis

Mairon Santos Profile

Age: 25
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Striker (Lightweight background, now fighting at featherweight)
UFC Record: 17-1-0

Recent Form

• May 17, 2025: Def. Sodiq Yusuff – Unanimous Decision
• Mar. 8, 2025: Def. Francis Marshall – Split Decision
• Aug. 24, 2024: Def. Kaan Ofli – KO/TKO (Round 2, 1:30)

Santos has rattled off three straight wins since his UFC debut, showcasing both volume striking and the power to change fights with a single shot.

Strengths

• Explosive Striking: 46% significant strike accuracy, 8 career KOs and 4 finishes in Round 1.
• Stroke Defense: 66% significant strike defense — he consistently avoids and counters opponent offense.
• Cardio & Pace: Averages 12:10 minutes per fight, demonstrating durability through three hard-fought rounds.
• Front-Foot Pressure: Relentless jab and leg-kick game keep opponents off balance and unable to execute their own offense.

Weaknesses

• One-Dimensional Offense: 0% takedown accuracy and no submission wins—he rarely wrestles, making him predictable if the grappling comes.
• Takedown Defense (50%): Vulnerable to solid wrestlers who can mix levels; half of his opponents’ takedown attempts succeed.
• Reach Differential: At 67" height and 72" reach, he may be bullied by longer-limbed fighters in the clinch.

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Muhammadjon Naimov Profile

Age: 30
Country: Tajikistan
Fighting Style: Well-Rounded MMA (featherweight)
UFC Record: 13-3-0

Recent Form

• Jun. 21, 2025: Def. Bogdan Grad – Unanimous Decision
• Feb. 1, 2025: Def. Kaan Ofli – Unanimous Decision
• Jun. 22, 2024: Loss to Felipe Lima – Submission (Round 3, 1:15)

Naimov is 4-1 in his last five bouts, rebounding from the Lima setback with disciplined striking and grappling control.

Strengths

• Grappling Suite: 36% takedown accuracy and 68% takedown defense give him the flexibility to choose where the fight goes.
• Finishing Instincts: 6 KOs, 2 submissions, and 5 first-round finishes; he can capitalize on openings anywhere.
• Durability & Cardio: Averages 11:25 per fight, comfortable in deep waters and able to maintain pressure late.
• Wrestling Base: Solid sprawl and scramble work allow him to neutralize early striking and drag strong strikers into grappling exchanges.

Weaknesses

• Striking Efficiency: 41% significant strike accuracy and only 45% defense — he absorbs more strikes than ideal, leaving him open to volume punchers.
• Stand-Up Defense: Below-average head movement and footwork against high-level technicians can lead to lopsided striking deficits.
• Age & Wear: At 30, his punch resistance has been tested; multiple wars in the UFC may sap reaction speed.

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Matchup Breakdown

This contest pits Santos’s explosive stand-up against Naimov’s grappling pedigree. If Santos can keep the fight upright, his striking volume and knockout power should overwhelm Naimov. However, once Naimov secures the clinch or a level change, Santos’s lack of submission experience and 50% takedown defense could spell trouble. Expect Santos to blitz early with hooks and leg kicks, while Naimov hunts overhands and takedowns to slow the pace. The key question: can Naimov survive the first two minutes of furious stand-up and shift the fight to his grappling domain? Whoever executes their game plan more efficiently will dictate not just the action—but also the finish.

Betting Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds Snapshot

As of the latest updates, Mairon Santos is firmly installed as the betting favorite across all major sportsbooks, while Muhammadjon Naimov carries the underdog tag. Here’s a quick look at the current head-to-head odds:

• Mairon Santos (Favorite)

  • Caesars: –195
  • BetOnline: –225
  • Bovada: –235
  • DraftKings: –238
  • FanDuel: –245

• Muhammadjon Naimov (Underdog)

  • Caesars: +165
  • BetOnline: +190
  • Bovada: +195
  • DraftKings: +195
  • FanDuel: +186

The biggest gap appears at FanDuel (–245 vs. +186), but your best value on the favorite is at Caesars (–195), and the top underdog payout is at Bovada or DraftKings (+195).

Line Movement & Large Swings

Tracking the line movement offers insight into where the sharp money and public money has been flowing:

• Caesars

  • Santos opened at –180 (Nov. 23, 00:37) and steadily shifted to –195 (Nov. 24).
  • Naimov mirrored that movement, drifting from +150 to +165.

• BetOnline

  • Santos started at –175 (Nov. 18) vaulted to –240 (Nov. 23, 18:20), then settled at –225.
  • Naimov rose from +150 to a peak of +205 before correcting to +190.

• Bovada

  • The favorite saw swings from –183 up to –240 and back, while the underdog oscillated between +158 and +200, now sitting at +195.

• DraftKings & FanDuel

  • DraftKings moved from –180 to –238 for Santos and +150 to +195 for Naimov.
  • FanDuel’s most extreme position is –245 for Santos and +186 for Naimov.

These notable swings—especially the sharp jump to –240 on Nov. 23 around 18:10—suggest a wave of early sharp action on Santos, followed by reactive adjustments as books balanced liabilities. The lines have since stabilized but continue to reflect confidence in Santos’s striking edge.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you invest $1,000 on either fighter at today’s best available odds, here’s what you’d stand to win:

• Bet $1,000 on Santos at –195 (Caesars):
  – Profit: approximately $513
  – Total Return: about $1,513

• Bet $1,000 on Naimov at +195 (Bovada/DraftKings):
  – Profit: $1,950
  – Total Return: $2,950

Based on these lines, the sportsbooks are implying that Santos has roughly a two-thirds chance of winning, while Naimov carries close to a one-third chance. Remember, these percentages are house-derived probabilities and account for the built-in juice.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Favorite (Santos): Caesars Sportsbook offers the shortest negative line at –195, maximizing your profit margin.
• Underdog (Naimov): Bovada and DraftKings both post +195, giving you the highest payout per $100 risked.

By shopping around and taking advantage of these line differentials, you can lock in the most favorable price for whichever side you choose.