Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner: UFC 323 Odds & Preview

Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner Fight Analysis

Event Details

Mark your calendars for one of the most intriguing lightweight clashes of the year: Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner. This bout is set to take place on Saturday, December 6, 2025 at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, and will open the Early Preliminary Card. The action is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM PT (11:00 PM ET / 4:00 AM GMT), with Barboza and Turner expected to step into the octagon around 8:30 PM PT (11:30 PM ET).

Both fighters bring contrasting styles and compelling storylines to Sin City. Brazilian veteran Edson Barboza (24 – 13 – 0) will attempt to silence critics after a mixed run of late-career results, while dynamic American prospect Jalin Turner (14 – 9 – 0) looks to rebound from a recent skid and solidify his place among the division’s rising stars.

Betting Odds & Favorites

The betting markets have spoken: Jalin Turner is a clear -260 favorite (average across top sportsbooks), while Edson Barboza checks in as the +210 underdog.

• At Caesars, Turner sits at -260, Barboza at +210.
• BetMGM shows similar lines: Turner -250, Barboza +200.
• DraftKings and Bovada mirror the general consensus, with Turner in the -250 to -265 range and Barboza lingering around +200 to +210.

Turner’s heavy favorite status stems from his exceptional finishing rate—11 of his 14 career wins have come in the first round—and his superior striking metrics (48% significant strike accuracy, 56% takedown defense). Barboza, despite being one of the most feared kickers in MMA history, is viewed as a risky play at +210 given his 39-year-old frame and recent durability questions.

Why This Bout Matters

• Barboza’s Legacy on the Line: A former title challenger, “Junior” Barboza has exploded onto highlight reels with spinning wheel kicks and leg kicks that have felled multiple elite opponents. A win here would not only reinvigorate his twilight years but also push him closer to another top-15 ranking.
• Turner’s Redemption Arc: After dropping four straight bouts, Turner must prove he belongs among the division’s upper echelon. His combination of reach (77″), knockout power, and improving wrestling makes him a dangerous foe for any veteran. A victory over a legend like Barboza would be a statement heard around the lightweight landscape.

Introduction Takeaway

At face value, Jalin Turner is strongly favored to continue his first-round finishing spree against the seasoned Edson Barboza, who at 39 years old remains hungry to reclaim relevance. This stylistic matchup—Turner’s aggressive volume striking versus Barboza’s pinpoint kicks and counter-attack—promises fireworks early. Whether you back the young phenom to keep his momentum or bank on the veteran’s deadly arsenal to spring an upset, this is a can’t-miss opener that sets the tone for what should be an electrifying night at UFC 323.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Jalin Turner: The American Phenom

Age: 30 Country: United States Fighting Style: MMA Striker

Background & Recent Form

• Professional Record: 14–9–0
• Last 5 Fights:
  1. Loss to Ignacio Bahamondes (Submission – Round 1, 2:29)
  2. Loss to Renato Moicano (KO/TKO – Round 2, 4:11)
  3. Loss to Bobby Green (Unspecified)
  4. Loss to Dan Hooker (Split Decision – Round 3, 5:00)
  5. Loss to Mateusz Gamrot (Decision – Round 3, 5:00)

Turner has suffered a five-fight skid, but each outing underscores his willingness to engage and his penchant for early finishes. His 11 first-round stoppages attest to explosive power that can overwhelm even seasoned veterans.

Strengths

• Finishing Ability: 10 of 14 wins by knockout; thrives in early rounds
• Reach Advantage: 77” reach allows Turner to weaponize jabs and straight strikes
• Striking Accuracy: 48% significant strike connect rate outperforms lightweight average
• Takedown Defense: 75% success defending wrestlers keeps the fight standing

Vulnerabilities

• Strike Defense: 42% absorption rate suggests holes in guard and head movement
• Durability Under Pressure: Tends to wilt against volume strikers once pace increases
• Mental Hurdle: A string of losses can sap confidence in mid-fight adversity

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Edson Barboza: The Brazilian Kickboxing Master

Age: 39 Country: Brazil Fighting Style: Striker (Kickboxing Base)

Background & Recent Form

• Professional Record: 24–13–0
• Last 5 Fights:
  1. Loss to Drakkar Klose (Unspecified)
  2. Loss to Lerone Murphy (Decision – Round 5, 5:00)
  3. Win over Sodiq Yusuff (Decision – Round 5, 5:00)
  4. Win over Billy Quarantillo (KO/TKO – Round 1, 2:37)
  5. Loss to Bryce Mitchell (Decision – Round 3, 5:00)

A former title challenger, Barboza remains one of MMA’s most feared kickers. Despite recent setbacks (2–3 in his last five), his highlight-reel arsenal and veteran savvy still command respect.

Strengths

• Leg & Spinning Strikes: One of the sport’s highest output deliverers—career highlight finishes via wheel kicks and calf kicks
• Strike Defense: 56% significant strikes defended; his head movement and counter-punching remain sharp
• Cardio & Fight IQ: 12:17 average fight duration shows durability and ability to adapt mid-fight
• Takedown Defense: 73% success rate neutralizes pressure fighters

Vulnerabilities

• Aging Frame: At 39, reaction times and recovery have dipped; late‐round effectiveness can wane
• Takedown Offense: 50% takedown accuracy indicates limited wrestling threat if pressed
• No Submission Wins: Gaps in ground game make him susceptible to elite grapplers

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Matchup Dynamics

• Range & Volume: Turner’s 77” reach vs Barboza’s precision kicking war sets up a battle for the outside. Turner must impose his jab and pressure without overcommitting.
• Early Finisher vs Counter-Striker: Turner lives for the first-round knockout; Barboza aims to weather the storm, sap his foe’s gas tank, and counter.
• Cardio & Durability: A deep, tactical fight favors Barboza’s experience and conditioning, but Turner’s youth and takedown defense mitigate late-fight pitfalls.

This clash of styles—youthful aggression meeting veteran craft—will hinge on who dictates distance and pace. Can Turner land the big shot early, or will Barboza’s leg kicks and counter-attacks carve open the American phenom over three rounds?

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

The betting market has firmly established Jalin Turner as the heavy favorite and Edson Barboza as the underdog in this lightweight showdown. Across major sportsbooks, the lines sit as follows:

• Caesars: Turner –260 | Barboza +210
• BetMGM: Turner –250 | Barboza +200
• DraftKings: Turner –258 | Barboza +210
• BetOnline.ag: Turner –250 | Barboza +210
• Bovada: Turner –250 | Barboza +210
• FanDuel: Turner –265 | Barboza +200

Turner’s price ranges from –250 to –265, making him a roughly 72–73% implied favorite, while Barboza’s line of +200 to +210 projects about a 32–34% chance to pull off the upset. The best sportsbook for backing Barboza is any site offering +210 (Caesars, DraftKings, BetOnline, Bovada), maximizing your potential upside. Conversely, FanDuel’s –265 on Turner is the softest favorite line, slightly boosting returns if you back him there.

Underdog vs. Favorite

• Favorite: Jalin Turner (–260 average)
• Underdog: Edson Barboza (+210 average)

The two-way spread (nearly 470 points) illustrates the public’s confidence in Turner’s youth, reach and finishing power over the veteran Barboza, who at 39 must lean on experience and counter-striking.

Line Movement & Trends

Examining the odds history reveals notable shifts this week:

• Caesars: Turner opened around –225 on Nov. 22, quickly shortened to –260 by Nov. 24. Barboza went from +185 to +210 in the same span.
• DraftKings: Turner’s line moved from –205 → –258, indicating heavy money on the favorite; Barboza climbed from +170 → +210 as books adjusted.
• BetOnline.ag: Turner peaked at –270 before settling at –250, while Barboza briefly spiked to +230 then retracted to +210.

These swings reflect two dynamics: sharp bettors hammering Turner after studying the matchup, and sportsbooks widening Barboza’s line to balance their risk once steam hit the favorite.

Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you’re willing to pull the trigger with a $1,000 wager, here’s what you can expect without diving into the math:

• Bet $1,000 on Turner (–260)
  – Estimated total return: $1,385
  – Implied chance to win: ~72%

• Bet $1,000 on Barboza (+210)
  – Estimated total return: $3,100
  – Implied chance to win: ~32%

While Turner’s payout is modest due to heavy favoritism, Barboza’s underdog line offers a substantial payday if the veteran can execute his kicking game and outlast the younger phenom.

Best Sportsbook Recommendation

• For Barboza bettors, aim for any of the +210 offers at Caesars, DraftKings, BetOnline.ag, or Bovada.
• For Turner backers seeking maximum value, FanDuel’s –265 is slightly better than its peers, translating to a marginally higher payout on your $1,000 stake.

Whether you lean into Turner’s finishing upside or gamble on Barboza’s veteran acumen, understanding these odds and their recent movements is crucial for making an informed play in this stylistic clash.