UFC 323: Abdul-Malik vs Trocoli Odds, Analysis & Pick

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli fight analysis

Event Overview

Mark your calendars: on Saturday, December 6, 2025, at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, the middleweight division heats up on the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2. The action kicks off at 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT, with this intriguing clash slated to hit the Octagon shortly thereafter. Fight fans can catch Abdul-Malik vs. Trocoli on ESPN+ (U.S.) and via UFC Fight Pass internationally, setting the stage for a compelling undercard battle that could carry serious implications for both men’s trajectories in the 185-pound ranks.

Fighters in Focus

• Mansur Abdul-Malik (28, 8-0-1)
  • Hometown: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
  • Style: Freestyle striker
  • UFC Debut: Nov. 9, 2024
  • Record Highlights: 7 of 8 wins by KO/TKO, 6 first-round finishes
  • Odds: -1200 (Caesars), -1000 (BetRivers/BetOnline.ag), -950 (DraftKings/Bovada), -900 (BetMGM)

• Antonio Trocoli (34, 12-5-0)
  • Hometown: Salvador, Brazil
  • Style: Muay Thai specialist with a heavy submission pedigree (5 subs)
  • UFC Debut: Jul. 9, 2019
  • Record Highlights: Balanced finisher—3 KOs, 5 submissions, 3 first-round stoppages
  • Odds: +700 (Caesars), +650 (BetRivers/BetOnline.ag), +600 (Bovada/BetMGM), +575 (DraftKings)

Favorite vs. Underdog

This isn’t just any prelim scrap—Mansur Abdul-Malik arrives as the overwhelming favorite, boasting an unblemished UFC ledger and a terrifying power-punching arsenal that has sent nearly every foe crashing to the canvas early. The market agrees: moneyline odds hovering around –1,000 to –1,200 reflect his status as a potential future contender.

On the opposite stool sits Antonio Trocoli, the underdog at +600 to +700, desperate to reverse a two-fight skid (back-to-back losses by KO and submission) and reignite the momentum that once saw him run off a four-fight win streak. With veteran savvy and a dangerous ground game, Trocoli possesses the tools to pull off a classic upset—if he can neutralize Abdul-Malik’s striking and navigate through the early onslaught.

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As fight night approaches, questions loom: Can Abdul-Malik extend his unbeaten run and showcase the finishing power that’s made him a bonafide knockout artist? Or will Trocoli’s resilience and submission acumen turn the tables in a do-or-die performance? This middleweight showdown on the early prelims promises fireworks and sets the tone for a massive night at T-Mobile Arena.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 can be found on the Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Mansur Abdul-Malik Profile

Age: 28
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle striker with heavy power-punching arsenal
UFC Debut: Nov. 9, 2024

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

• Jun. 14, 2025 – Def. Cody Brundage by Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
• Feb. 22, 2025 – Def. Nick Klein by KO/TKO (Round 2, 3:24)
• Nov. 9, 2024 – Def. Dusko Todorovic by KO/TKO (Round 1, 2:44)

Mansur Abdul-Malik remains undefeated in the UFC (8-0-1 overall) and has finished seven of eight opponents by strikes. Six of those wins came in the opening round, showcasing his ability to start fast and apply relentless pressure.

Strengths

• Finishing Power: 7 KOs/TKOs out of 8 victories; 75% first-round finish rate.
• Reach & Length: 79.5″ arm reach gives him a striking buffer against shorter opponents.
• Striking Defense: 51% significant strike defense, above middleweight average, helps him avoid return fire.
• Takedown Defense: 82% success rate thwarting takedowns, making him difficult to control on the ground.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: 33% takedown accuracy—he rarely mixes wrestling threats beyond his striking.
• Submission Game: Only 1 submission win; ground attack is secondary to his power punching.
• Endurance Question Marks: Average fight time (07:40) suggests potential slowing if unable to secure early finishes.

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Antonio Trocoli Profile

Age: 34
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Muay Thai striker with a strong submission pedigree
UFC Debut: Jul. 9, 2019

Recent Form (Last 3 UFC Fights)

• Nov. 9, 2024 – Loss to Tresean Gore by Submission (Round 1, 1:23)
• Jun. 22, 2024 – Loss to Shara Magomedov by KO/TKO (Round 3, 2:27)
• Prior to UFC stint: Compiled multiple stoppage wins (3 KOs, 5 submissions) on the Brazilian regional scene

Trocoli arrives on a two-fight skid, having dropped back-to-back bouts by stoppage. However, his overall career résumé (12-5-0) features 8 finishes and shows he can end fights standing or on the mat.

Strengths

• Balanced Finisher: 3 KOs and 5 submissions—he is just as dangerous on the feet as he is grappling.
• Striking Accuracy: 50% significant strike accuracy, matching some of the division’s top offensive weapons.
• Explosive Starts: 3 first-round finishes indicate he looks to impose his game immediately.
• Submission Savvy: Skilled at chaining subs, capable of capitalizing on any scramble or clinch.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: Only 24% significant strike defense—he absorbs too many clean shots, leaving him vulnerable to heavy hitters.
• Takedown Offense: 11% takedown accuracy, struggling to get fights to the mat against robust wrestlers.
• Average Defense: 50% takedown defense is middle-of-the-pack, exposing him to elite grapplers.
• Durability Concerns: Recent KO and submission losses suggest potential holes in his chin and submission escapes.

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Styles Make Fights

This clash pits Abdul-Malik’s one-punch knockout power and elite takedown defense against Trocoli’s Muay Thai striking range and ground-game versatility. The key questions:

• Can Abdul-Malik blitz Trocoli early, exploit his poor defensive metrics, and secure another highlight-reel finish?
• Will Trocoli weather the initial storm, drag the fight into deeper waters, and capitalize on any grappling lapses from the unbeaten favorite?

This stylistic contrast—power vs. versatility—promises fireworks on the Early Prelims of UFC 323.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, the betting market clearly favors Mansur Abdul-Malik, with moneyline odds sitting between –900 and –1,200 across major books. In contrast, Antonio Trocoli is the designated underdog at +575 to +700.

• Mansur Abdul-Malik

  • Caesars: –1,200
  • BetRivers & BetOnline.ag: –1,000
  • DraftKings & Bovada: –950
  • BetMGM: –900

• Antonio Trocoli

  • Caesars: +700
  • BetRivers & BetOnline.ag: +650
  • Bovada & BetMGM: +600
  • DraftKings: +575

With more than 20 cents of line difference between books, Trocoli backers will find the best underdog value at Caesars (+700), while bettors siding with Abdul-Malik get the juiciest payout at DraftKings (–950) rather than the short –1,200 at Caesars.

Line Movement Analysis

A closer look at the odds history reveals some notable swings:

• Mansur Abdul-Malik opened at around –800 on Bovada during early trading and quickly slid to –1,000 as bettors poured in on his knockout streak. Caesars then dropped him further to –1,200 within the last 24 hours, indicating heavy sharp money on the unbeaten favorite.
• Antonio Trocoli began his run at +525 on Bovada and flirted briefly with +625 before rising to +650 and finally +700 at Caesars. The biggest jump came after late support, suggesting some contrarian bettors are banking on his veteran savvy to spoil Abdul-Malik’s perfect UFC spotless slate.

The most dramatic move: Caesars shifting Trocoli from +650 to +700 in a matter of hours, a sign that a significant handful of bets targeted the Brazilian underdog at the eleventh hour.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you back Mansur Abdul-Malik at –1,000, a $1,000 wager would net you $100 in profit (returning $1,100 total). Even at –950, that same $1,000 bet yields $105.25 (total $1,105.25).

On the flip side, a $1,000 bet on Antonio Trocoli at +700 pays $700 profit (total $1,700 return). Even his lowest line (+575) still returns $575 profit (total $1,575).

Based on these lines, Abdul-Malik carries an implied winning probability north of 90%, while Trocoli sits at roughly 12–15%, reflecting the market’s faith in the unbeaten freestyler’s power and athleticism.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• Underdog Play: Caesars (+700) offers the highest payout on Trocoli, making it the go-to for upset hunters.
• Favorite Play: DraftKings at –950 is superior to the –1,200 at Caesars, shaving down your risk while preserving slim edge on the heavy favorite.

Whether you’re riding the chalk or betting the upset, understanding these odds swings and shopping around for the sharpest line will maximize your return as MMA bettors zero in on this early prelim middleweight grudge match.