Allan Nascimento vs Cody Durden Betting Odds & AI Pick

Allan Nascimento vs Cody Durden fight analysis

Event Details

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama lands on November 1, 2025, live from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. This Catchweight bout (127.5 lb limit) headlines the Main Card, set to kick off at 7:00 PM PT. Both flyweight contenders bring contrasting styles and trajectories into this pivotal matchup.

Introduction

As the lights shine on the UFC APEX Octagon, Allan Nascimento (21-6-0) enters as the prohibitive favorite at roughly –260 (depending on your sportsbook), while Cody Durden (17-8-1) comes in as the underdog at around +210. Nascimento’s career showcases a deep submission arsenal—14 of his 21 wins have come by tapout—paired with crisp striking (60% significant strike accuracy). At 33 years old, the Brazilian veteran has averaged nearly 12 minutes and 40 seconds per fight, demonstrating both patience and precision. Durden, ranked #15 in the flyweight division, counters with explosive power—12 first-round finishes across knockouts and submissions—and a more aggressive pace, averaging 9 minutes and 30 seconds per bout.

The Favorite: Allan Nascimento

• Record: 21-6-0 (2 KOs, 14 submissions)
• Key Attributes:
  • Elite grappling and submission transitions
  • 60% significant strike accuracy
  • Improved takedown defense (31%) but a modest 24% takedown offense
• Streak & Momentum: Nascimento is riding a two-fight win streak inside the UFC, most recently outpointing Jafel Filho via unanimous decision (5:00, Round 3) on May 31, 2025. His victory over Carlos Hernandez (Jan. 2023) by first-round submission further cements his ground dominance.

The Underdog: Cody Durden

• Record: 17-8-1 (6 KOs, 6 submissions)
• Key Attributes:
  • Balanced finisher (both striking and grappling)
  • 45% significant strike accuracy with a sturdy 50% defense
  • Solid takedown offense (48%) and 73% takedown defense
• Recent Form: Durden has struggled in his last two outings, dropping decisions to Jose Ochoa (KO/TKO, Round 2) and Joshua Van (Unanimous Decision, Round 3). However, his highlight-reel submission of Matt Schnell (0:29, Round 2; Sept. 7, 2024) reminds fans of his finishing prowess.

Stakes & Significance

This matchup carries crucial implications for both athletes. A victory for Nascimento would solidify his emergence as a top-10 flyweight contender and showcase his grappling supremacy. Conversely, Durden needs a statement win—not only to halt a two-fight skid but to vault into the divisional hierarchy. With contrasting skill sets and opposite career narratives, this fight promises a classic striker-vs.-grappler chess match, punctuated by Durden’s power and Nascimento’s submission acumen.

Stay tuned as these two flyweights collide under the bright lights of Vegas, each seeking to tip the title picture in their favor. Whether you’re backing the favorite at –260 or betting on the underdog at +210, expect fireworks in this high-stakes, catchweight showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Allan Nascimento vs Cody Durden can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Garcia vs Onama can be found on the Garcia vs Onama event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Allan Nascimento – The Brazilian Submission Specialist

Age: 33
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Striker / Grappler

Recent Form (Last 4 UFC Bouts)

• May 31, 2025 – Def. Jafel Filho by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)
• Jan. 14, 2023 – Def. Carlos Hernandez by Submission (Rear-Naked Choke, R1 – 3:16)
• May 14, 2022 – Def. Jake Hadley by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)
• Oct. 30, 2021 – Loss vs. Tagir Ulanbekov by Split Decision (3 Rounds)

Strengths

• Elite Submission Game: 14 of 21 career wins by submission, with slick transitions and a high fight IQ on the mat.
• Striking Precision: 60% significant strike accuracy, far above the flyweight divisional average. He lands with intent and picks his openings.
• First-Round Finisher: 12 first-round stoppages, demonstrating the ability to force the action early and threaten opponents before they settle in.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense & Defense: 24% takedown accuracy and only 31% takedown defense leave him vulnerable to strong wrestlers who can drag him into top-control scrambles.
• Lack of Knockout Power: Just 2 KO/TKO victories in 21 wins suggest limited ability to hurt opponents with pure punching power.
• Average Pace & Cardio: An average fight time of 12:39 hints at a more measured, patient approach. Against frenetic wrestlers or pressure fighters, he may be out-paced.

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Cody Durden – The All-Around Flyweight Contender

Age: 34
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Balanced Striker / Grappler

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Bouts)

• Jun. 14, 2025 – Loss vs. Jose Ochoa by KO/TKO (R2 – 0:11)
• Dec. 7, 2024 – Loss vs. Joshua Van by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)
• Sept. 7, 2024 – Def. Matt Schnell by Submission (Triangle Choke, R2 – 0:29)
• Jul. 20, 2024 – Loss vs. Bruno Silva by KO/TKO (R2 – 2:58)
• Dec. 16, 2023 – Loss vs. Tagir Ulanbekov by Submission (R2 – 4:25)

Strengths

• Wrestling Base: 48% takedown accuracy and 73% takedown defense rank him among the division’s better wrestlers. He can dictate where the fight takes place.
• Balanced Finisher: Six knockout wins and six submissions highlight his versatility and threat in every phase of combat.
• High-pace Attacks: An average fight time of 9:30 and nine first-round finishes indicate he hunts early and presses opponents from the opening bell.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy vs. Defense: 45% significant strike accuracy is solid but paired with only 50% defense, he leaves openings that precise strikers can exploit.
• Inconsistency Under Pressure: Four losses in his last five outings, including two quick KOs, raise questions about his chin and ability to adjust when hurt.
• Finishing Reliance: Durden’s highlights often come from explosive finishes; if Nascimento weathers the early storm, Durden can struggle to adjust to a slower, grappling-centric grind.

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Tactical Chess Matchup

• Nascimento vs. Durden is a classic striker-vs. wrestler puzzle. Allan’s pinpoint striking and submission transitions must overcome Cody’s strong takedown entries and relentless forward pressure.
• Key Battle: Will Durden’s wrestling neutralize Nascimento’s ground game, or will Allan’s defensive grappling and high-accuracy counter striking keep Durden at bay?
• Betting Implication: Backing the Brazilian favorite leans on his precision and experience, while a live-play or prop on Durden’s takedown success could pay dividends if he implements an early wrestling assault.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Allan Nascimento:
  • Caesars, BetOnline.ag, BetUS, BetMGM, Bovada all list him around –260 (American).
  • Best line: –260, available at Caesars and Bovada, meaning you risk $260 to win $100.
• Cody Durden:
  • Caesars, BetOnline.ag, BetUS, BetMGM list him between +200 and +215.
  • Best line: +215 at DraftKings and Bovada, meaning you risk $100 to win $215.

As it stands, Nascimento is the clear favorite, while Durden is the underdog by roughly 475 “points” in American odds. Betting 100 units on Nascimento buys you a much smaller profit than backing Durden, but reflects the sportsbooks’ confidence in the Brazilian.

Line Movement & Swing Analysis

• Allan Nascimento Movement:
  • Opened around –195 at Caesars on Oct. 28.
  • Steadily moved toward –260 by Oct. 29, a shift of 65 points.
• Cody Durden Movement:
  • Opened around +165 at Caesars and +170 at BetMGM on Oct. 27–28.
  • Climbed to +210/+215 by Oct. 29, a swing of about 45–50 points.

These significant line swings indicate sharp money and public action favoring Nascimento; bookmakers have lengthened Durden’s price to balance liability. Early money on both fighters drove lines in both directions before settling into the current gap.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

• If you bet $1,000 on Allan Nascimento at –260:
  • Profit: $384.62
  • Total return: $1,384.62
• If you bet $1,000 on Cody Durden at +215:
  • Profit: $2,150
  • Total return: $3,150

Based on these prices, the implied win probabilities are approximately 72% for Nascimento and 32% for Durden. These figures include the sportsbook’s built-in juice.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• For the underdog (Durden): DraftKings and Bovada currently offer the highest underdog payout at +215.
• For the favorite (Nascimento): Caesars and Bovada give the least “juice” at –260, so you risk the smallest amount per $100 of profit.

Whether you’re chasing a big payday on the +215 underdog or taking the lean –260 favorite for a safer return, these are the books that maximize your edge. Always compare lines across multiple sportsbooks before placing your wager, as even a few points can swing your ROI significantly.