Schnell vs Morales: UFC Flyweight Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales Fight Analysis

Introduction

On November 9, 2025, flyweight contenders Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales will clash on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown, hosted at the famed UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Scheduled to begin at approximately 1:45 AM UTC, this pivotal matchup promises to shake up the Flyweight division as two highly skilled grapplers and strikers vie for a career-defining victory.

Joseph Morales, entering this contest as the consensus -240 favorite, has quickly re-established himself among the promotion’s elite after capturing the LFA Flyweight title and returning to the Octagon with a polished blend of Freestyle wrestling and suffocating ground control. At 30 years old, Morales brings a 14-2-0 professional ledger into this bout, featuring six submission victories and an impressive 43% takedown accuracy. He’s sharpened his striking arsenal over nine UFC appearances, boasting a 40% significant strike accuracy and defending 57% of incoming power shots. A standout performer in the regional scene, Morales’ lone UFC setback came in August 2025, losing a close decision to Alibi Idiris. Now, he aims to rebalance the scales and surge up the flyweight rankings.

Standing across the Octagon, veteran grappler Matt Schnell enters as the +200 underdog, carrying a 17-9-0 record built on explosive submission prowess—nine of his seventeen wins have come via tapout. At 35 years old, Schnell’s seasoned Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree is underscored by a staggering nine first-round finishes and an average fight time of just over eight minutes. His 70-inch reach advantage and 40% takedown accuracy complement a well-rounded offensive arsenal, though he has shown lapses in striking defense (allowing 45% significant strikes) and has dropped three of his last four bouts. A unanimous decision win over Jimmy Flick in April showcased Schnell’s durability and tactical adjustments, yet he remains hungry for back-to-back victories against top-15 opposition.

With Morales installing himself as the betting favorite across major sportsbooks—-235 at BetOnline.ag, -238 at DraftKings, and dipping as low as -265 on FanDuel—expect the wrestling specialist to push a high-paced grappling assault from the opening bell. Meanwhile, the savvy underdog Schnell must leverage his submission instincts, capitalize on any striking exchanges, and dictate where the fight goes to claim the upset.

In this battle of contrasting styles—Morales’ technical wrestling versus Schnell’s opportunistic jiu-jitsu—the stakes are clear: a victory vaults the winner into title contention chatter, while the loser faces a critical crossroads. Stay tuned as we break down key statistics, stylistic matchups, and betting angles in our full analysis below.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Joseph Morales: The Wrestling Technician

Age: 30 • Country: United States • Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling

Joseph Morales enters this bout with a 14-2-0 record and a reputation as one of the division’s most efficient grapplers. After cutting his teeth in LFA—where he captured the Flyweight title—Morales has amassed nine UFC appearances, combining a 43% takedown accuracy with a suffocating top-control game.

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights):

• Aug. 16, 2025 vs. Alibi Idiris – Loss (Decision)
• Nov. 10, 2018 vs. Eric Shelton – Loss (Decision, 3rd Round)
• Feb. 03, 2018 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo – Loss (KO/TKO, R2)
• Aug. 05, 2017 vs. Roberto Sanchez – Win (Submission, R1)

Morales has split his last four Octagon outings, with his two most recent setbacks coming via decision and knockout. Despite these hiccups, his 57% significant strike defense and six career submissions underline a fighter capable of blending tight wrestling with opportunistic grappling exchanges.

Strengths:

• Takedown Offense (43%): Puts opponents on their back at will, smothering their offense.
• Defensive Discipline (57% Sig Strike Defense): Limits damage when pressured in striking exchanges.
• Ground Control & Submissions (6 Sub Wins): Transitions smoothly from top position to submission threats.

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Defense (29%): Vulnerable when forced to defend wrestling—Schnell can exploit this to bring the fight to the mat.
• Unfinished Business in Stand-up: A 40% significant strike accuracy shows Morales lands consistently but lacks fight-finishing power on the feet.

---

Matt Schnell: The Submission Specialist

Age: 35 • Country: United States • Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

A seasoned veteran with a 17-9-0 ledger, Matt Schnell is renowned for his lightning-fast submissions and willingness to engage in high-octane grappling scrambles. His nine first-round finishes speak to an aggressive approach that looks to end fights early.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Apr. 26, 2025 vs. Jimmy Flick – Win (Unanimous Decision, 3 Rds)
• Sep. 07, 2024 vs. Cody Durden – Loss (Submission, R2, 0:29)
• Mar. 02, 2024 vs. Steve Erceg – Loss (KO/TKO, R2, 0:26)
• Dec. 03, 2022 vs. Matheus Nicolau – Loss (KO/TKO, R2, 1:44)
• Jul. 16, 2022 vs. Su Mudaerji – Win (Submission, R2, 4:24)

Schnell’s ledger over the past three years features back-and-forth results, with his two most recent losses coming by way of finish. His only April outing versus Jimmy Flick demonstrated adjustments in his striking and cardio, but durability under heavy shots has been a concern.

Strengths:

• Submission Prowess (9 Subs): Elite jiu-jitsu skills and willingness to hunt for the tap at any stage.
• Fast Finisher: Nine first-round stoppages indicate explosive starts and fight-ending instincts.
• Takedown Defense (43%): Better than Morales in stopping wrestling attempts, allowing Schnell to initiate scrambles where he excels.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense (55% Sig Strike Defense): Has absorbed heavy blows that led to knockout losses—vulnerable in stand-up exchanges.
• Inconsistent Recent Form: Three finishes suffered in four fights suggest lapses in defensive strategy and fight IQ.

---

In this clash, Morales will look to impose his wrestling pedigree and control the pace, while Schnell will seek to bait grappling scrambles to unleash his submission arsenal. The contrast in styles—freestyle takedowns versus Brazilian jiu-jitsu transitions—will define the key battlegrounds of this Flyweight tilt.

Odds and Betting Trends

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, Joseph Morales is firmly installed as the favorite across all major sportsbooks, while Matt Schnell carries underdog status. Here’s a snapshot of the most competitive lines:

• Joseph Morales

• BetOnline.ag: -235
• DraftKings: -238
• Bovada: -240
• FanDuel: -265

• Matt Schnell

• BetOnline.ag: +200
• FanDuel: +200
• Bovada: +200
• DraftKings: +195

The spread between Morales’ juiciest favorite price (-235) and his shortest (-265) reflects modest variance, but the most bettor-friendly book for Morales backers is BetOnline.ag at -235. For Schnell supporters hunting the biggest payday, the trio of BetOnline.ag, FanDuel, and Bovada all offer the optimal +200 line.

Line Movement and Trends

Since the opening odds dropped on October 30, we’ve seen only minor fluctuations in the marketplace:

• Morales opened around -240 and has dipped as low as -265 on FanDuel before settling back near -235 at BetOnline.ag.
• Schnell’s line initially debuted at +195 on DraftKings, but most books quickly adjusted to +200, showing a slight lean toward underdog interest.

No dramatic swing or sharp money alerts have surfaced, suggesting even circulation of bets on both fighters. The thin two- to three-point shifts indicate that early bettors see Morales as the logical favorite but believe Schnell’s submission threat warrants fair underdog juice.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you’re laying down $1,000 on either athlete, here’s your risk/reward:

• Wager $1,000 on Joseph Morales at -235

• Profit: $1,000 × (100/235) ≈ $425
• Total Payout: $1,425

• Wager $1,000 on Matt Schnell at +200

• Profit: $1,000 × (200/100) = $2,000
• Total Payout: $3,000

The current lines imply roughly a 70% chance for Morales to prevail and about a 33% chance for Schnell to pull off the upset. While Morales’ odds reflect his wrestling control and recent performances, Schnell’s pricing underscores his night-ending submission upside.

Best Books to Bet On

• BetOnline.ag:

• Morales best at -235
• Schnell best at +200

• FanDuel / Bovada:

• Schnell also +200 (tie for best underdog value)

For fans seeking the tightest juice on the favorite and the largest return on the underdog, BetOnline.ag checks both boxes. DraftKings and FanDuel offer competitive markets but carry slightly steeper lines on Morales or smaller payouts on Schnell.

As you weigh your options, remember that line stability suggests no massive betting surprises so far—feel free to shop around, but locking in your price at BetOnline.ag remains the sharps’ choice.