Simon vs Barcelos Odds & AI Pick | UFC Fight Night

Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos Fight Analysis

Introduction

The bantamweight showdown between Ricky Simon and Raoni Barcelos is one of the most intriguing matchups on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown, scheduled for Saturday, November 8, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This pivotal contest is slated to begin around 10:00 PM ET, following an action-packed prelim slate. Both competitors bring contrasting styles, impressive resumes and a clear narrative: Simon arrives as the betting favorite, while Barcelos looks to defy the odds as the underdog.

Ricky Simon, aged 32 and hailing from Pendleton, Oregon, enters this bout with a professional record of 22–6–0. A former collegiate wrestler, Simon has steadily climbed the bantamweight ranks thanks to his relentless takedowns, tenacious ground control and burgeoning striking power. His −155 (BetOnline.ag) to −180 (DraftKings) odds reflect the oddsmakers’ confidence in his ability to dictate where this fight goes. Simon’s 44% significant striking accuracy and 43% takedown success rate have been cornerstones of his approach, yielding 7 knockouts, 4 submissions and 7 first-round finishes over the course of his UFC tenure. Despite three recent decision losses, including a unanimous verdict against Mario Bautista in January 2024 and a fifth-round KO setback versus Song Yadong in April 2023, Simon has bounced back with two consecutive wins—most recently a unanimous decision over Cameron Smotherman in June 2025.

In contrast, the 38-year-old Brazilian veteran Raoni Barcelos steps into the octagon with a 20–5–0 record and a reputation as one of the division’s most well-rounded fighters. A decorated jiu-jitsu practitioner from Rio de Janeiro, Barcelos has shown serious evolution in his striking, boasting a 53% significant strike accuracy and 61% defense rate. His +135 (BetOnline.ag) to +150 (DraftKings) odds tag him as the underdog, but his track record—highlighted by a unanimous decision over former champion Cody Garbrandt in June 2025 and a slick submission victory against Cristian Quiñonez in February 2024—demonstrates he cannot be underestimated. Barcelos combines 8 knockouts, 3 submissions and 5 first-round stoppages with elite takedown defense (86%) and a knack for extending fights into deep waters, averaging just under 13 minutes of octagon time per outing.

This matchup pits Simon’s wrestling-centric, pressure-oriented approach against Barcelos’s fluid, submission-savvy arsenal. Simon will likely aim to grind out positions and neutralize the Brazilian’s jiu-jitsu pedigree, whereas Barcelos will look to capitalize on openings—whether by unleashing precise striking combinations or dragging the fight to the mat. With both fighters possessing durability, experience and championship aspirations, this clash promises to be a technical chess match with potential fireworks.

As bettors and fans weigh the contrasting styles and recent form, the consensus lines suggest Ricky Simon holds the advantage—but Raoni Barcelos has proven time and again that underdog status often fuels his best performances. Stay tuned as these two bantamweight contenders collide at the UFC Apex on November 8, where momentum, strategy and heart will determine who takes a significant step toward title contention.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Ricky Simon: The American Wrestling Specialist

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: United States (Pendleton, Oregon)
• Fighting Style: Wrestling
• Professional Record: 22–6–0

A former collegiate wrestler, Ricky Simon relies on relentless pressure, powerful takedowns and suffocating top control. His 43% takedown accuracy is among the best in the bantamweight division, and he combines that with a solid 62% significant strike defense to neutralize opponents’ offense. Simon has accumulated 7 knockouts, 4 submissions and 7 first-round finishes, showcasing his ability to end fights early when he locks in dominant positions.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Jun. 14, 2025: Win vs. Cameron Smotherman — Decision (Unanimous)
• Feb. 22, 2025: Win vs. Javid Basharat — KO/TKO (Round 1, 3:58)
• Jun. 29, 2024: Loss vs. Vinicius Oliveira — Decision (Unanimous)
• Jan. 13, 2024: Loss vs. Mario Bautista — Decision (Unanimous)
• Apr. 29, 2023: Loss vs. Song Yadong — KO/TKO (Round 5, 1:10)

Simon has rebounded from a three-fight skid with back-to-back victories in 2025. His unanimous decision over Smotherman showcased improved volume striking (landing over 80 significant strikes) and durable wrestling that thwarted multiple submission attempts.

Strengths and Weaknesses

• Strengths:

  • Takedown Offense (43% Accuracy): Simon thrives when he drags fights to the mat; his chain- wrestling often wears opponents down.
  • Cardio & Durability: An average fight time of 12:32 and ability to maintain pace through three rounds.
  • Strike Defense (62%): Effective at minimizing damage on the feet.

• Weaknesses:

  • Striking Output: At 44% significant strike accuracy, Simon can struggle to finish high-level strikers on their feet.
  • Takedown Defense (75%): Vulnerable to explosive grapplers who close distance quickly.
  • Late-Round Power: Knockout power tends to wane beyond the opening stanza.

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Raoni Barcelos: The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Artist

Background

• Age: 38
• Country: Brazil (Rio de Janeiro)
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
• Professional Record: 20–5–0

A decorated BJJ black belt, Raoni Barcelos has evolved into a well-rounded finisher. He boasts 53% significant strike accuracy and elite 86% takedown defense, making him extremely difficult to grapple. With 8 knockouts, 3 submissions and 5 first-round stoppages, Barcelos is comfortable both striking and hunting submissions off his back.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Jun. 14, 2025: Win vs. Cody Garbrandt — Decision (Unanimous)
• Jan. 18, 2025: Win vs. Payton Talbott — Decision (Unanimous)
• Feb. 24, 2024: Win vs. Cristian Quiñonez — Submission (Round 3, 2:04)
• Aug. 5, 2023: Loss vs. Kyler Phillips — Decision (Unanimous)
• Jan. 14, 2023: Loss vs. Umar Nurmagomedov — KO/TKO (Round 1, 4:40)

Barcelos has rattled off three straight victories, including a signature win over former champion Cody Garbrandt. His unanimous decision showcased precise striking (landing nearly 60 significant strikes) and iron-clad submission defense.

Strengths and Weaknesses

• Strengths:

  • Takedown Defense (86%): World-class at keeping the fight vertical, forcing opponents to slug it out.
  • Striking Accuracy (53%): Highly efficient on the feet, with crisp combinations and counters.
  • Submission Prowess: Even when taken down, he escapes routinely and can threaten with sweeps or subs.

• Weaknesses:

  • Takedown Offense (33%): Less prolific at initiating grappling exchanges—relies on opponents’ mistakes.
  • Chin Durability: Two KO/TKO losses suggest risk against heavy hitters.
  • Age & Pace: At 38, his cardio can dip in late rounds against relentless wrestlers.

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This clash is a classic stylistic mirror: Simon’s wrestling pressure versus Barcelos’s BJJ and striking efficiency. Simon will hunt takedowns and grind early, while Barcelos aims to keep it standing, strike smart and avoid being dragged into prolonged clinch battles. Both men possess elite division traits—expect a technical war where the slightest advantage in wrestling or transitions could decide the winner.

Odds Overview and Best Bets

Current Moneyline Odds

• Ricky Simon (Favorite):
  • BetOnline.ag: −155
  • DraftKings: −180
  • FanDuel: −188
  • Bovada: −177
• Raoni Barcelos (Underdog):
  • BetOnline.ag: +135
  • DraftKings: +150
  • FanDuel: +146
  • Bovada: +153

As of late October, Ricky Simon is firmly installed as the betting favorite, with moneyline odds in the −155 to −188 range. By contrast, Raoni Barcelos sits in the +135 to +153 window as the clear underdog. The gap between the consensus favorite (FanDuel −188) and the longest underdog line (Bovada +153) is 341 points, underscoring how bookmakers view Simon’s wrestling edge over Barcelos’s jiu-jitsu and striking.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• Favorite (Simon): BetOnline.ag’s −155 offers the most attractive payout if you back Simon.
• Underdog (Barcelos): Bovada’s +153 yields the highest return on a Barcelos wager.

Whether you trust Simon to grind out a win or believe Barcelos can shock the world, selecting the right sportsbook matters. For maximum profit on Simon, stick with BetOnline.ag; for Barcelos, Bovada is your go-to.

Line Movement and Betting Trends

Simon’s Line Shifts

• Early Bovada odds opened at −175, ticked to −177, then briefly softened to −168 before climbing back.
• On BetOnline.ag, Simon slipped from −175 to −155 as sharp money poured in.

These moves suggest bettors are confident in Simon’s ability to control the fight and punish Barcelos on the mat, driving the favorite line to even juicier levels for late backers.

Barcelos’s Line Swings

• Bovada kicked off Barcelos at +150, surged to +153, dipped to +142 when heavy action arrived, then rebounded to +153.
• DraftKings and FanDuel have remained relatively steady at +150 and +146, respectively.

The saw-tooth pattern at Bovada implies sharp books initially trimmed the underdog line to +142 (less value), then recreational dollars bumped it back to +153. If you believe Barcelos’s recent three-fight winning streak, those late Bovada numbers are a tempting entry point.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Chances

If You Bet $1,000 on Ricky Simon

• At −155 (BetOnline.ag): You’d pocket $645 profit, for a total return of $1,645.
• At −180 (DraftKings): You’d net $555, returning $1,555.

Implied Chance: Roughly 62% to 65% that Simon comes away victorious, per current lines.

If You Bet $1,000 on Raoni Barcelos

• At +153 (Bovada): You’d win $1,530, for a total return of $2,530.
• At +150 (DraftKings): You’d win $1,500, returning $2,500.

Implied Chance: Barcelos has about a 37% to 40% shot to pull off the upset.

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Summary: If you’re banking on Simon’s wrestling dominance, BetOnline.ag’s −155 is the sharpest favorite odds. If you fancy a Barcelos upset, Bovada’s +153 gives the juiciest underdog payout. Watch the line movements: sharp bettors have moved both sides, but the biggest swings in Barcelos’s odds hint at soft spots bookmakers are willing to exploit. Make your pick wisely—each dollar could swing the payout by hundreds in the world of UFC bantamweight betting.