Duncan vs Tulio Fight Analysis, Odds & AI Pick | UFC

Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, November 8, 2025, fight fans will descend on the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a compelling Middleweight contest that promises fireworks. Slated as part of the Main Card on the UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown event, the clash between Christian Leroy Duncan and Marco Tulio Silva kicks off at approximately 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT. With both men carrying impressive records, this bout has quickly captured the attention of bettors and analysts alike.

When and Where

• Date: Saturday, November 8, 2025
• Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
• Card Placement: Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown
• Scheduled Start: 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT

The Odds: Favorite vs. Underdog

Heading into this matchup, the betting markets have made it clear who they believe will prevail:

• Marco Tulio Silva enters as the favorite, with odds hovering around –145 to –158 across top sportsbooks (BetOnline.ag, FanDuel, DraftKings, Bovada).
• Christian Leroy Duncan is pegged as the underdog, sporting a modest +124 to +125 line.

This spread underscores the confidence oddsmakers have in Tulio’s explosive power and finishing ability, while still offering value on Duncan’s well-rounded skill set.

Why You Should Be Watching

1. High Finish Rates:

   • Tulio boasts a staggering 14–1 record with 10 knockouts and 7 first-round finishes. His significant striking accuracy of 60% and knockout pedigree make him a constant threat whenever he touches gloves.
   • Duncan counters with a solid 14–2 ledger, securing 7 knockouts and 3 submissions. His diverse finish portfolio and improved takedown accuracy (42%) hint at multiple paths to victory.

2. Contrasting Styles:

   • Striking Showcase: Both fighters are natural strikers, but Tulio’s heavy hands and superior precision (60% significant strike accuracy) contrast with Duncan’s volume-based approach (44% accuracy).
   • Grappling Upside: Duncan’s 50% takedown defense and 42% offensive success rate introduce an intriguing grappling element. If he mixes in effective level changes, he could neutralize Tulio’s stand-up dominance.

3. Momentum and Experience:

   • Tulio has won his last two UFC appearances by KO/TKO, dispatching Tresean Gore and Ihor Potieria with relative ease.
   • Duncan arrives on a four-fight winning streak in the Octagon, highlighted by a brutal first-round KO of Eryk Anders and a unanimous decision over Mateusz Rebecki.

What’s at Stake

A victory for Marco Tulio could cement his status as a rising contender in the Middleweight division, potentially vaulting him into the top 15 rankings. For Christian Leroy Duncan, an upset win would not only stunningly derail Tulio’s ascent but also establish him as a dark-horse threat capable of making waves in one of MMA’s deepest weight classes.

With stakes high and styles clashing, this bout is poised to be one of the most entertaining on the November 8 card. Stay tuned as we break down each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and the key factors that could determine the outcome in the sections that follow.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Background & Fighting Styles

Marco Tulio Silva

• Age: 30
• Country: Brazil (Uberlândia)
• Division: Middleweight
• Fighting Style: Striker
• Physicals: 72″ height, 74.5″ reach
• UFC Debut: Jan. 11, 2025

A powerful Brazilian knockout artist, Tulio brings a 14-1 professional record into his Octagon sophomore season. Known for explosive starts and a lethal one-two combination, he relies on pressure striking and precision to overwhelm opponents.

Christian Leroy Duncan

• Age: 32
• Country: Scotland (Glasgow)
• Division: Lightweight (catchweight for this bout)
• Fighting Style: Striker with grappling chops
• Physicals: 70″ height, 71.5″ reach
• UFC Debut: Mar. 18, 2023

Duncan is a well-rounded Scottish competitor carrying a 14-2 ledger. While primarily a striker, he mixes in heavy leg kicks and is comfortable hunting takedowns and hunting submissions once the clinch is secured.

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Recent Form (Last 3–5 Fights)

Marco Tulio Silva

1. Apr. 12, 2025: Def. Tresean Gore – KO/TKO (R2, 3:16)
2. Jan. 11, 2025: Def. Ihor Potieria – KO/TKO (R1, 3:04)

Tulio is 2-0 in the UFC, both wins by knockout, illustrating a seamless transition to the big show. He has finished all three of his career MMA losses via decision, showcasing durability.

Christian Leroy Duncan

1. Aug. 9, 2025: Def. Eryk Anders – KO/TKO (R1, 3:53)
2. Aug. 2, 2025: Def. Mateusz Rebecki – Decision (Unanimous)
3. Mar. 22, 2025: Def. Jordan Vucenic – Submission (R2, 3:42)
4. Mar. 22, 2025: Def. Andrey Pulyaev – Decision (Unanimous)
5. Sep. 28, 2024: Def. Bolaji Oki – Submission (R1, 3:34)

Duncan enters on a five-fight winning streak, displaying versatility—two submissions, two KOs, one decision—against a mix of wrestlers and strikers, proving his adaptability.

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Strengths & Weaknesses

Marco Tulio Silva

Strengths:

• Heavy Hands: 10 KOs in 14 wins; 60% significant strike accuracy.
• First-Round Finisher: 7 first-round stoppages; always dangerous early.
• Striking Defense: 62% significant strike defense, adept at slipping punches.

Weaknesses:

• Grappling Deficit: 0% takedown defense; high susceptibility to level changes.
• Limited Ground Game: 0 submission wins; can be pressured on the mat.
• Mid-Range Volume: Average fight length of 8:30 suggests fades if opponents survive early storm.

Christian Leroy Duncan

Strengths:

• Well-Rounded Offense: 7 KOs, 3 submissions; multiple pathways to victory.
• Takedown Prowess: 42% takedown accuracy; 50% takedown defense.
• Resilience: Career average fight time of 8:17 indicates good cardio and will to push late.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Precision: 44% significant strike accuracy; can leave openings.
• Striking Defense: 52% defense rate; vulnerable to heavy hitters.
• Reach Disadvantage: 2″ shorter reach could hamper safe striking distance.

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Bottom Line: Tulio’s knockout power and precision make him the betting favorite, but his ground vulnerabilities and Duncan’s improving wrestling could turn this into a chess match. Expect fireworks on the feet and decisive grappling exchanges as each fighter leans into their statistical advantages.

Odds & Betting History Breakdown

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown, the markets have established Marco Tulio Silva as the clear favorite and Christian Leroy Duncan as the underdog:

• Marco Tulio Silva:

  • BetOnline.ag: –145
  • Bovada: –145
  • DraftKings: –148
  • FanDuel: –158

• Christian Leroy Duncan:

  • BetOnline.ag: +125
  • Bovada: +125
  • DraftKings: +124
  • FanDuel: +124

Tulio’s best line is –145 (BetOnline.ag, Bovada), while Duncan’s most attractive price is +125 (BetOnline.ag, Bovada). This means Tulio commands roughly a 59% implied win probability, while Duncan sits near 44%.

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Favorite: Marco Tulio Silva (–145)
• Underdog: Christian Leroy Duncan (+125)

If you want the highest potential return on Duncan, BetOnline.ag or Bovada at +125 are your go-to sportsbooks. If you back Tulio, the softest line is at –145 on BetOnline.ag or Bovada, giving you the best risk/reward on the favorite.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the line movement over the past few days reveals modest but telling shifts:

• Marco Tulio:

  • Opened around –155 (Oct. 27) on BetOnline.ag, trimmed to –145 by Oct. 30.
  • Bovada swung between –160/–145 multiple times but settled at –145.
  • DraftKings and FanDuel have held him between –148 and –158, indicating steady confidence.

• Christian Leroy Duncan:

  • Began at +135 (Oct. 27) on BetOnline.ag, drifting to +125 by Oct. 30.
  • Bovada mirrored this drop from +135 to +125.
  • DraftKings and FanDuel locked in at +124, suggesting solid support for the underdog.

The overall trend shows slight line drift toward Duncan (+135 → +125) and easing on Tulio (–155 → –145). This suggests some bettors believe Duncan offers value, trimming the favorite’s margin.

Payout & Implied Probabilities

Curious about your potential return? Here’s what a $1,000 wager would net you:

• Bet $1,000 on Marco Tulio Silva (–145):
  • Profit: ≈ $689.66
  • Total Return: ≈ $1,689.66

• Bet $1,000 on Christian Leroy Duncan (+125):
  • Profit: $1,250
  • Total Return: $2,250

In terms of implied probability (what the market says your fighter’s chances are):

• Marco Tulio Silva: ~59%
• Christian Leroy Duncan: ~44%

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Duncan (+125): BetOnline.ag or Bovada
• For Tulio (–145): BetOnline.ag or Bovada

Both books currently offer the most favorable lines on each fighter, maximizing your value whether you’re backing the favorite or hunting an underdog payout.