Miles Johns vs Daniel Marcos: Betting Odds & AI Pick

Miles Johns vs Daniel Marcos fight analysis

Introduction

The bantamweight showdown between Daniel Marcos and Miles Johns is set to ignite the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown on Saturday, November 8, 2025, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Fans can catch the action live starting at 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT (21:00 GMT) as Marcos and Johns look to make a statement on the heels of their recent performances. This clash offers a compelling narrative: a rising contender in Marcos aiming to rebound after a narrow defeat, versus a battle-tested striker in Johns eager to halt a two-fight skid.

Daniel Marcos (17-1-0) enters this contest as the favorite, with odds drifting between -170 and -175 across major sportsbooks. Hailing from Lima, Peru, Marcos has demonstrated cracking power—8 of his 17 victories have come by knockout—and an impressive 46% takedown accuracy to complement a sturdy 85% defensive rate on the canvas. Despite a razor-thin unanimous decision loss to Montel Jackson in May, the 32-year-old’s significant striking accuracy (54%) and first-round finishing capability underscore why oddsmakers back him to prevail.

On the opposite corner stands Miles Johns (15-4-0), listed as the underdog at roughly +143 to +150, depending on the bookmaker. The 31-year-old Newton, Kansas native debuted in the UFC in 2019 and has since carved out a reputation as a volume striker with industry-leading defense (67% significant strike defense). Although Johns has dropped back-to-back decisions—most recently a split verdict against Jean Matsumoto in August—he possesses a well-rounded toolkit: 4 knockouts, 2 submissions, and a boxer’s pedigree that could trouble Marcos if he keeps the fight upright.

This bout isn’t merely about redressing recent losses; it represents a pivotal crossroads for both athletes. A win for Marcos could vault him into the conversation for a top-15 ranking and set up a high-profile tilt later in 2026. Conversely, a victory for Johns would arrest his current slide and reaffirm his status as a dangerous blueprint-style striker in the 135-pound division. With neither fighter having tasted a finish since early 2024, bettors and fans alike will be keen to see if either man can seize the night early—or whether this affair goes the distance once more.

Why This Fight Matters

• Next-Level Implications: A win moves the victor closer to top-15 contention.
• Styles Make Fights: Marcos’ power and grappling mix vs. Johns’ boxing foundation and elite strike defense.
• Betting Dynamics: Marcos’ favorite status at -175 vs. Johns’ underdog line at +150 creates intriguing value plays on both sides.

As the lights go down in Vegas, all eyes will be on the Octagon to see whether Daniel Marcos can justify his favorite billing or if Miles Johns will defy the odds and deliver a statement victory.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Miles Johns vs Daniel Marcos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bonfim vs Brown can be found on the Bonfim vs Brown event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Daniel Marcos: The Peruvian Powerhouse

Age: 32 | Country: Peru | Fighting Style: Well-rounded striker with grappling chops

Daniel Marcos (17-1-0) has quickly become one of the most intriguing names in the bantamweight division. Hailing from Lima, Marcos made his UFC debut in January 2023 and has since showcased a blend of heavy hands and solid wrestling entries. In his last five outings, Marcos has gone:

• May 3, 2025 – Loss vs. Montel Jackson (Decision – Unanimous)
• Dec. 14, 2024 – Win vs. Adrian Yanez (Decision – Split)
• June 8, 2024 – Win vs. John Castaneda (Decision – Unanimous)
• Feb. 10, 2024 – Loss vs. Aoriqileng (Could Not Continue)
• July 22, 2023 – Win vs. Davey Grant (Decision – Split)

This 3-2 run illustrates Marcos’ ability to hang with top contenders, but also highlights moments of vulnerability—most notably a corner stoppage against Aoriqileng. Still, his unanimous decision losses came on the judges’ scorecards, underlining a competitive toughness.

Strengths

• Power & Finishing Instincts: 8 of his 17 career wins by KO, including 3 first-round stoppages. Marcos averages 54% significant strike accuracy, making each attack count.
• Wrestling & Control: 46% takedown accuracy pairs with an elite 85% takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where the fight goes.
• Cardio & Durability: An average fight time of 12:58 shows he can push opponents into deep waters and maintain a high pace through three rounds.

Weaknesses

• Submission Game: 0 career submission victories, suggesting limited ground-and-pound transitions or submission setups.
• Injury Concerns: The “Could Not Continue” loss hints at durability questions, especially if hurt early.
• Striking Defense: A 62% significant strike defense rate is solid but leaves room for volume strikers to find openings.

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Miles Johns: The American Boxer

Age: 31 | Country: United States | Fighting Style: Pure boxing specialist

Miles Johns (15-4-0) made his UFC debut in September 2019 and has built a reputation as a volume puncher with top-tier defensive instincts. His last five fights read:

• Aug. 9, 2025 – Loss vs. Jean Matsumoto (Decision – Split)
• Dec. 14, 2024 – Loss vs. Felipe Lima (Decision – Unanimous)
• June 15, 2024 – Win vs. Douglas Silva De Andrade (Decision – Unanimous)
• Mar. 23, 2024 – Win vs. Cody Gibson (Decision – Unanimous)
• Sept. 23, 2023 – Win vs. Daniel Argueta (Decision – Unanimous)

Johns rattled off three straight victories before suffering back-to-back decision defeats. His 2025 split decision loss to Matsumoto was razor-thin, underscoring how razor-close he remains at the top of the talent pool.

Strengths

• Elite Defense: A remarkable 67% significant strike defense neutralizes many adversaries’ offense.
• Boxing IQ: 44% strike accuracy paired with crisp footwork allows him to outland jab-and-move opponents effectively.
• Stamina: An average fight time of 13:32 suggests he maintains output late into the third round, often winning rounds via volume.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: Just 27% takedown accuracy limits his ability to mix attacks and keep opponents guessing.
• Finishing Rate: Only 4 KOs and 2 submissions in 15 wins signal that Johns relies heavily on point-fighting rather than stoppages.
• Recent Slump: Consecutive losses could sap confidence, especially if he can’t find answers to high-level pressure.

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Both athletes bring contrasting styles to the cage: Marcos’ power-wrestling hybrid vs. Johns’ boxing defense and volume punching. Their strengths and vulnerabilities set the stage for a compelling stylistic clash on November 8 at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown, the betting market clearly favors Daniel Marcos, who is currently listed at -170 (Caesars) to -175 (BetOnline.ag). His opponent, Miles Johns, is the underdog, priced at +143 (Caesars) to +150 (BetOnline.ag).

• Favorite: Daniel Marcos (–170 at Caesars)
• Underdog: Miles Johns (+150 at BetOnline.ag)
• Best sportsbook for Marcos: Caesars offers –170, slightly better than –175 elsewhere
• Best sportsbook for Johns: BetOnline.ag pays +150, the highest underdog return available

The gap between –170 and +150 creates an attractive betting spread for those seeking to back the underdog’s upside or lay a modest risk on the favorite.

Line Movement & Market Trends

Since opening, both lines have shifted modestly but consistently in favor of Marcos:

• At 05:09 AM ET on Nov. 3, Marcos opened at –170 on BetOnline.ag and Johns at +145.
• By 08:28 AM ET, sharps had pushed Marcos to –175 and Johns to +150 on the same book.
• Caesars mirrored this trend, adjusting Marcos to –170 and Johns to +143 by 09:30 AM ET.

These incremental moves suggest early money from informed bettors on Marcos—enough to nudge the line but not dramatic enough to indicate a consensus smash. Johns’ line creeping from +145 to +150 hints that underdog support has been steady, too, offering value for contrarian plays.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you stake $1,000 on either fighter, here’s what you stand to collect:

• Betting $1,000 on Daniel Marcos at –170 (Caesars) returns $1,588 total ($588 profit + your $1,000 stake).
• Betting $1,000 on Miles Johns at +150 (BetOnline.ag) returns $2,500 total ($1,500 profit + your $1,000 stake).

Based on these lines, Marcos carries roughly a 63% chance to win, while Johns sits near 40% in the market’s eyes. These figures capture public perception and sharp money flows—no deep math explanation needed, just the bottom-line odds of victory.

Why These Odds Matter

• Value on the Underdog? Johns at +150 offers a juicy payout if he can convert his boxing defense into offense and disrupt Marcos’ rhythm.
• Trusting the Favorite? Marcos’ superior power numbers and high takedown defense make –170 a reasonable lay for bettors confident in his well-rounded skill set.
• Best Betting Strategy:
  • For maximum return on an upset, lock in Johns at +150 (BetOnline.ag).
  • For a more conservative play, back Marcos at –170 (Caesars) with the knowledge you risk $170 to win $100.

As fight night approaches, keep an eye on any fresh line movement—sharp tweaks can reveal where the most informed money is going. Whether you ride the favorite or chase the underdog, knowing the current odds, line history, and potential payout is crucial to crafting a winning bet.