Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson fight analysis
Fight Overview
On Sunday, December 14, 2025, two of the Women’s Strawweight division’s most tenacious competitors will collide on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Kape. Hosted at the world-renowned UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, the bout features Brazil’s #5 contender Amanda Lemos squaring off against Canada’s #10 contender Gillian Robertson. This matchup promises a compelling clash of striking prowess and submission craft, as each fighter brings a distinctive skill set and a hunger to climb the divisional ladder.
When and Where
- Date & Time: December 14, 2025 (starts at 10:00 p.m. ET local time)
- Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
- Card Placement: Preliminary Card, following the early undercard bouts and preceding the evening’s main roster fights
Betting Odds: Favorite vs Underdog
- Favorite: Gillian Robertson (–170)
- Underdog: Amanda Lemos (+145)
Oddsmakers have installed Gillian Robertson as the favorite, reflecting her recent momentum—four wins in five starts—including high-profile stoppages over Marina Rodriguez and Polyana Viana. Despite entering the Octagon as the higher-ranked athlete, Amanda Lemos carries the underdog tag, largely due to a mixed run of late results against top competition. Bettors should note the tightening odds for both fighters over the past 48 hours, signaling growing confidence on each side.
Styles Make Fights
- Amanda Lemos (15-5-1): A powerful boxer with eight career knockouts and a 55% significant strike accuracy rate, Lemos relies on crisp combinations and heavy hands to dictate range. Her 63% takedown accuracy adds a secondary threat, enabling her to control opponents against the fence or in top position.
- Gillian Robertson (16-8-0): A submission specialist boasting nine career tap-outs, Robertson excels in scrambling exchanges and finding openings for armbars and triangles. Her 49% striking accuracy and 57% defense make her more than just a grappler, as she can pick apart foes standing or on the mat.
Key Factors to Watch
- Early Pace & Distance Management: Lemos will look to establish her jab and low kicks, preventing Robertson from closing distance for takedowns or clinch work.
- Grappling Exchanges: Robertson’s ground game is elite; if she can force scrambles or drag the fight to the mat, she may find submission opportunities.
- Cardio & Fight IQ: Both athletes average over ten minutes per fight, underscoring their stamina. How each fighter adjusts mid-round will be critical in five-minute championship-distance frames.
With contrasting strengths and the potential for fight-finishing sequences both standing and on the floor, Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson is poised to deliver fireworks in the UFC APEX—and provide bettors with a riveting underdog story or a favorite’s vindication.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Royval vs Kape can be found on the Royval vs Kape event page.
Matchup & Fighter Profiles
Gillian Robertson – The Submission Specialist
Age: 30
Country: Canada
Fighting Style: MMA (Wrestling & Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu foundation)
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- May 3, 2025: Win vs. Marina Rodriguez – KO/TKO (R2, 2:07)
- Nov. 9, 2024: Win vs. Luana Pinheiro – Decision (Unanimous)
- June 29, 2024: Win vs. Michelle Waterson – Decision (Unanimous)
- Jan. 20, 2024: Win vs. Polyana Viana – KO/TKO (R2, 3:12)
- June 24, 2023: Loss vs. Tabatha Ricci – Decision (Unanimous)
Robertson has rebounded from her 2023 loss by rattling off four straight victories, including two highlight-reel knockouts and three decision wins over tough veterans. Her momentum in 2024 and 2025 places her firmly in the mix at #10, carrying confidence into this clash.
Statistical Profile & Key Traits
- Record: 16-8-0
- Wins by Submission: 9 (56% of wins)
- Wins by KO/TKO: 3
- Sig. Striking Accuracy: 49%
- Sig. Strike Defense: 57%
- Takedown Accuracy: 41%
- Takedown Defense: 41%
Strengths:
• Elite ground game – with nine career submissions, Gillian thrives in scrambles and transitions, hunting armbars and triangles once the fight hits the mat.
• Stout striking defense – 57% of significant strikes avoided shows her head movement and footwork are battle-tested.
• Durability – she averages a 10:05 fight length and has never been finished, posing a persistent threat from bell to bell.
Weaknesses:
• Moderate offensive size – her takedown accuracy (41%) leaves room for opponents to stuff or counter-wrestle.
• Striking output – while accurate, she lands fewer total strikes per minute than many top strawweights, potentially ceding control on the feet.
• First-round starts – only 3 first-round finishes suggest she sometimes takes time to warm up.
Amanda Lemos – The Power Packer
Age: 38
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Boxing-centric striker with a strong wrestling base
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Sept. 13, 2025: Loss vs. Tatiana Suarez – Decision (Unanimous)
- March 8, 2025: Win vs. Iasmin Lucindo – Decision (Unanimous)
- July 20, 2024: Loss vs. Virna Jandiroba – Submission (R2, 4:48)
- Feb. 17, 2024: Win vs. Mackenzie Dern – Decision (Unanimous)
- Aug. 19, 2023: Loss vs. Weili Zhang – Decision (Unanimous)
Lemos enters off a narrow unanimous-decision loss to elite wrestler Tatiana Suarez. Her 2–3 mark over the past two years has seen her dispatch grappling threats like Dern but struggle against top-tier submission artists.
Statistical Profile & Key Traits
- Record: 15-5-1
- Wins by KO/TKO: 8 (53% of wins)
- Wins by Submission: 3
- Sig. Striking Accuracy: 55%
- Sig. Strike Defense: 45%
- Takedown Accuracy: 63%
- Takedown Defense: 64%
Strengths:
• Heavy hands – eight knockouts highlight her power; she lands over half her significant strikes.
• Wrestling prowess – with a 63% takedown rate, Amanda can belt opponents to the canvas and control pace.
• First-round explosiveness – eight first-round finishes indicate she brings fight-ending intensity early.
Weaknesses:
• Striking defense – she absorbs 55% of strikes aimed her way, leaving her open to counters.
• Submission susceptibility – losses by choke or joint locks (3 career submission losses) underscore potential vulnerabilities if taken down.
• Consistency – oscillating wins and losses against high-level foes reflect flashes of brilliance but occasional lapses.
Head-to-Head Dynamics
This stylistic contrast—Robertson’s grappling artistry vs. **Lemos’s knockout power and wrestling—**creates a compelling chess match. Robertson will seek to drag Lemos into uncharted ground, whereas Lemos must keep the fight standing or dominate positional control to secure victory. Each fighter’s strengths squarely target the other’s weaknesses, setting the stage for a tactical and physically punishing showdown at UFC APEX.
Betting Odds & Line Movement
Current Betting Odds
- Gillian Robertson: –170 (favorite)
- Amanda Lemos: +145 (underdog)
- Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag
Oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag have installed Robertson as the clear favorite, reflecting her recent four-fight win streak and strong grappling pedigree. Lemos, despite sitting at #5 in the division, enters as the underdog at +145 due to mixed results against top opponents over the last two years.
Line Movement Analysis
Gillian Robertson (–200 → –170)
- Dec 5, 19:09: –200
- Dec 5, 20:29: –180
- Dec 5, 20:40: –175
- Dec 6, 09:21: –170
Over a 14-hour window, Robertson’s line drifted from –200 to –170 (a 30-point shift). This movement suggests either a wave of bets on Lemos or sharp money fading Robertson’s favoritism.
Amanda Lemos (+170 → +145)
- Dec 5, 19:09: +170
- Dec 5, 20:29: +155
- Dec 5, 20:40: +150
- Dec 6, 09:21: +145
Lemos’ odds have shortened by 25 points, indicating growing confidence from bettors who believe she can capitalize on her punching power and wrestling. This converging movement on both sides signals a balanced market, with significant action on the underdog.
Payout & Implied Probability
If you’re sizing up a $1,000 wager:
-
Bet on Robertson at –170
- Potential Profit: ~$588
- Total Return: ~$1,588 (your $1,000 stake + $588 profit)
- Implied Win Probability: ~63%
-
Bet on Lemos at +145
- Potential Profit: $1,450
- Total Return: $2,450 (your $1,000 stake + $1,450 profit)
- Implied Win Probability: ~41%
Despite Robertson’s greater probability, the value lies in finding underdog payouts that justify the risk. Lemos’ line shortening suggests bettors are keying in on her heavy hands and takedown threat.
Recommended Sportsbook
For the best odds on both fighters, BetOnline.ag remains the top choice. Their market shows the tightest spreads and most transparent line history, giving you a clear edge when tracking shifts throughout fight week. Be sure to monitor their lines right up to fight time—further movement could unlock even better value on either contingent.
By understanding the current odds, historical line shifts, and potential payout, you can make an informed wager on Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson. Whether you back the favorite’s grappling acumen or the underdog’s knockout power, keep an eye on BetOnline.ag for any last-minute adjustments that might swing the betting landscape in your favor.
AI Pick: Amanda Lemos
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Amanda Lemos, or see all the AI picks for Royval vs Kape. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
