Nurullo Aliev vs Shem Rock: UFC Lightweight Odds & Analysis

Nurullo Aliev vs Shem Rock fight analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, November 22, 2025, combat sports fans will converge on the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, for what promises to be an electrifying Lightweight showcase on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker. The octagon doors swing open at 3:00 PM UTC, when undefeated Tajik wrestling phenom Nurullo Aliev (10-0-0) faces off against British newcomer Shem Rock (0-0-0) in a pivotal curtain-raiser bout. Although tucked into the early portion of the card, this clash of styles—Aliev’s relentless takedowns versus Rock’s unknown arsenal—could set the tone for an action-packed night in the desert.

Having earned his stripes with a perfect 10-0 record, Nurullo Aliev has quickly become one of the most talked-about prospects in the Lightweight division. At just 24 years old, the Dushanbe, Tajikistan native has showcased a dynamic wrestling base complemented by 46% significant strike accuracy and a workhorse pace that averages nearly 12 minutes per fight. With two knockouts and a first-round finish under his belt, Aliev’s combination of scrappy clinch work, high fight IQ, and championship-caliber cardio makes him the clear favorite in this matchup.

On the other end of the spectrum stands Shem Rock, a 32-year-old Liverpool native making his highly anticipated UFC debut. With no professional record reflected in the UFC’s database, Rock enters the cage as a total underdog, carrying the odds of +285 at BetOnline.ag. While his striking technique, defensive metrics, and ground game are largely untested at the highest level, Rock’s journey to the UFC is a testament to perseverance and raw potential. All eyes will be on how he handles the bright lights of a global stage and whether he can overcome a surging wrestler with everything to prove.

Key Betting Lines & Implications

• Nurullo Aliev (-350): The hefty favorite enjoys a -350 line, reflecting both his impeccable 10-0 slate and his proven skill set against UFC-caliber opponents such as Joe Solecki and Rafael Alves. Bettors backing Aliev expect him to dominate early with takedowns and control the pace, potentially hunting a finish in the later rounds as Rock’s gas tank is tested.
• Shem Rock (+285): Listed at +285, Rock represents the quintessential long-shot wager. A successful debut upset would be monumental, rewarding those who believe his unorthodox style or underappreciated skill set can neutralize Aliev’s wrestling.

Whether you’re a die-hard fan of clean Muay Thai exchanges or a tactician betting dollars on grappling mastery, this bout delivers intrigue. Will Aliev steamroll the newcomer en route to an 11–0 record, or will Shem Rock shock the world and announce himself in spectacular fashion? Buckle up—fight night in Doha is about to kick off with fireworks.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nurullo Aliev vs Shem Rock can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Tsarukyan vs Hooker can be found on the Tsarukyan vs Hooker event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Nurullo Aliev – The Undefeated Tajik Wrestler

Age: 24
Country: Tajikistan
Fighting Style: Wrestling

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):
• Regional Circuit – 5–0 (3 finishes: 2 KOs, 1 submission)
• UFC Debut (Feb. 25, 2023): Defeated Rafael Alves via Majority Decision
• UFC Follow-Up (Jan. 11, 2025): Defeated Joe Solecki via Unanimous Decision

Nurullo Aliev enters this bout riding a perfect 10-0 professional run, quickly establishing himself as one of the most dangerous wrestlers in the lightweight ranks. After carving up the Central Asian scene with multiple stoppages, Aliev has translated that dominance into the Octagon with back-to-back decision wins over seasoned veterans. His blend of relentless takedowns and suffocating top control has become his trademark.

Strengths:

• Elite Wrestling Base: 55% takedown accuracy ensures Aliev dictates where the fight goes.
• Stifling Top Control: Averages nearly 12 minutes per fight on the mat, sapping opponents’ gas tanks.
• Striking Efficiency: Lands 46% of his significant strikes while defending 59% of those thrown at him.
• Championship-Caliber Cardio: Rarely slows in later rounds, making him a three-round workhorse.

Weaknesses:

• Limited Finishing Output: Only 2 KOs and no submissions in 10 wins suggest an incomplete finishing arsenal.
• Predictable Attack Patterns: Heavy reliance on wrestling can become telegraphed against top-level strikers or submission specialists.
• Striking Power: Moderate knockout rate indicates he may struggle to keep strikers honest if his takedowns are negated.

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Shem Rock – The Unproven British Striker

Age: 32
Country: England
Fighting Style: Stand-Up Striking / All-Round Prospect

Recent Form (UFC & Beyond):
• Professional Record: 0–0 (UFC debut)
• Regional U.K. Circuit: Undefeated with a string of highlight-reel knockouts and submissions to earn his UFC contract

Shem Rock arrives in Doha as the ultimate unknown. Despite lacking a prior UFC record, Rock turned heads on the European scene with explosive finishes and a willingness to mix it up in all ranges. His ascent to the Octagon was fueled by crisp boxing combinations, dynamic kicks and the grit to go five rounds under pressure.

Strengths:

• Dynamic Striking Arsenal: Fluid combination work and above-average power in both fists and feet.
• Length & Range: Although official reach metrics are unlisted, he uses angles effectively to stay just outside an opponent’s comfort zone.
• Veteran Maturity: At 32, brings years of regional experience and mental toughness to handle big-stage nerves.

Weaknesses:

• Unproven Grappling: No recorded takedown or submission metrics at the UFC level, leaving his ground defense an open question.
• Cardio Durability: Debuting at age 32 against a relentless wrestler could test his gas tank in deep waters.
• Statistical Unknowns: With 0% registered in key UFC metrics (striking accuracy, takedown defense), Rock’s ability to execute under UFC scrutiny remains a major gamble.

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Head-to-Head Outlook: Aliev’s proven wrestling and pace set up a classic grappler vs. striker puzzle. If Aliev can maintain control, he should steamroll to another decision win. Conversely, if Rock can keep it upright, land early strikes and avoid takedowns, he’ll live up to his +285 underdog billing and shock the world.

Odds and Odds History

Current Betting Odds

• Nurullo Aliev (−350)
• Shem Rock (+285)
• Bookmaker: BetOnline.ag

As of the latest update on November 13, 2025, Nurullo Aliev enters as a heavy favorite at −350, while Shem Rock is the clear underdog at +285. The large price gap reflects Aliev’s undefeated 10–0 record, proven wrestling pedigree, and recent UFC victories over experienced foes. Conversely, Rock’s unknown professional profile and lack of UFC experience make him a long shot, albeit with significant upside for a successful debut.

Odds Differential & Underdog Spotlight

• Odds Differential: 635 points (from −350 to +285)
• Favorite: Nurullo Aliev (−350)
• Underdog: Shem Rock (+285)

At −350, a $350 stake on Aliev would yield $100 in profit, underscoring the expectation that he controls this contest. Rock’s +285 line offers a juicy return for risk-takers—landing a successful upset nets $285 for every $100 wagered.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

• Aliev’s Odds History:
  • Nov. 13, 2025: −350
• Rock’s Odds History:
  • Nov. 13, 2025: +285

Since the odds opened, there have been no significant swings on either side. Both fighters have maintained stable lines at BetOnline.ag, indicating that sharp money or public betting has not created major adjustments. This lack of volatility suggests the market is comfortable with the current valuation of Aliev’s wrestling versus Rock’s striking potential.

Betting at the Best Sportsbook

While odds can vary across platforms, BetOnline.ag currently presents one of the more competitive lines for this matchup. Prospective bettors should always compare with other top sportsbooks—such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM—to ensure they lock in the best available price. A few extra points in your favor can make a meaningful difference in potential returns.

Hypothetical $1,000 Wager Payouts

• $1,000 on Nurullo Aliev (−350):
  • Profit: $285.71
  • Total Return: $1,285.71
• $1,000 on Shem Rock (+285):
  • Profit: $2,850.00
  • Total Return: $3,850.00

Implied Probability

• Nurullo Aliev: ~77.8% chance to win
• Shem Rock: ~26.0% chance to win

These implied probabilities underscore the sharp contrast in expectations. Backers of Aliev prioritize consistency and proven skill, while those siding with Rock chase a high-reward scenario should the debutant deliver a stunning upset. Choose your side wisely—and if you’re seeking maximum value, keeping an eye on any late line movements or sportsbook promotions could tilt the edge in your favor.