Costa vs Charriere UFC Odds & Fight Analysis

Melquizael Costa vs Morgan Charriere fight analysis

Event Overview

On December 14, 2025, at 3:00 AM UTC (approximately 7:00 PM PT on December 13), the UFC returns to its state-of-the-art UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape. As part of the Main Card, rising Brazilian submission specialist Melquizael Costa squares off against hard-hitting Frenchman Morgan Charriere in a pivotal featherweight showdown. Both athletes are eager to climb the divisional ladder, each carrying momentum from strong UFC starts.

This bout kicks off right after the preliminary action, promising fireworks as two contrasting styles collide. Costa brings an aggressive grappling arsenal and a knack for late-round submissions, while Charriere’s explosive knockout power has lit up screens since his UFC debut in September 2023. With the event streamed live on ESPN+ (U.S.), fans around the globe can tune in to see who emerges as the next contender in the loaded Featherweight Division.

Timing & Venue

• Date: December 14, 2025
• Time: 3:00 AM UTC / 7:00 PM PT (December 13)
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
• Event: UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape (Main Card bout)

Betting Odds & Roles

Heading into fight night, the oddsmakers have slotted Melquizael Costa as a slight favorite at -130, with Morgan Charriere listed as the underdog at +110 (BetOnline.ag).

• Favorite: Melquizael Costa (-130)
  • A 24-7 pro record, boasting 8 first-round finishes and a 38% takedown accuracy
  • Riding a three-fight win streak, including an emphatic submission of Andre Fili

• Underdog: Morgan Charriere (+110)
  • Holds a 21-11-1 record with 13 KO victories and an impressive 50% strike accuracy
  • Most recently knocked out Nate Landwehr in Round 3 at UFC London

Costa’s wrestling pedigree and submission prowess make him a tough puzzle for any striker, while Charriere’s violent stand-up and improving takedown defense (83%) create intrigue. The betting line reflects a closely contested clash: Costa’s slight edge in grappling versus Charriere’s knockout upside.

What’s at Stake

For Costa, a victory over a proven finisher like Charriere cements his status among the division’s top 15 and could fast-track him into a ranked matchup. A win for Charriere underdog bettors would mark back-to-back knockout triumphs against UFC veterans, forcing the promotion to take notice of his power and versatility.

In this tightly matched Featherweight affair, expect Costa to hunt for takedowns and long-form control, while Charriere will look to land big shots on the feet and exploit any openings. With the stakes high and the styles divergent, this fight promises to be a must-watch for fans and bettors alike. Make sure to lock in your picks before the opening bell!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Melquizael Costa vs Morgan Charriere can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Royval vs Kape can be found on the Royval vs Kape event page.

Fighter Profiles & Matchup Analysis

Melquizael Costa: The Brazilian Grappler

Age: 28 • Country: Brazil • Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a grappling emphasis

Background & Recent Form

• After making his UFC debut in January 2023, Costa has surged to a 4-1 run over his last five outings.
  1. Win over Julian Erosa – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC Vegas 94
  2. Win over Christian Rodriguez – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC Las Vegas
  3. Win over Andre Fili – Submission (Guillotine) – Round 1
  4. Win over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke – Submission (Arm-Triangle) – Round 3
  5. Loss to Steve Garcia – KO/TKO – Round 2

Key Statistics

• Record: 24-7-0
• Wins by Submission: 8
• Wins by Knockout: 7
• First-Round Finishes: 9
• Average Fight Time: 10:55
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 50%
• Takedown Accuracy: 38%
• Takedown Defense: 58%

Strengths

• Submission Prowess: Eight career submission wins and a knack for late-round chokes make Costa a constant threat once the fight hits the mat.
• Stamina & Durability: With an average fight time near eleven minutes, he can maintain pace into deep waters and withstand early onslaughts.
• Balanced Striking: A 50% significant strike accuracy paired with solid defense (55%) ensures he can hold his own standing up while hunting for clinch entries.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Efficiency: A sub-40% takedown success rate may limit his ability to dictate where the fight goes against an opponent who refuses to engage on the ground.
• Takedown Defense Gaps: With only 58% of opponent takedowns stuffed, Costa could be vulnerable to persistent wrestling-heavy strategies.

---

Morgan Charriere: The French Knockout Artist

Age: 30 • Country: France • Fighting Style: High-tempo MMA with explosive boxing

Background & Recent Form

• Since his UFC debut in September 2023, Charriere’s roller-coaster run stands at 3-2 over the last five fights:
  1. Win over Nate Landwehr – KO/TKO – Round 3
  2. Loss to Nathaniel Wood – Unanimous Decision
  3. Win over Gabriel Miranda – KO/TKO – Round 2
  4. Loss to Chepe Mariscal – Split Decision
  5. Win over Manolo Zecchini – KO/TKO – Round 1

Key Statistics

• Record: 21-11-1
• Wins by Knockout: 13
• Wins by Submission: 3
• First-Round Finishes: 8
• Average Fight Time: 09:57
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 50%
• Takedown Defense: 83%

Strengths

• Finishing Power: Thirteen knockouts and eight first-round stoppages highlight his ability to end fights in an instant.
• Defensive Wrestling: An impressive 83% takedown defense rate will frustrate grapplers and keep the fight in striking range.
• High Work Rate: Near ten-minute average fight time suggests both volume and output, especially potent when bursts of power land.

Weaknesses

• Ground Game: With only three submission victories and a 47% takedown accuracy, Charriere may struggle to threaten strong wrestlers.
• Cardio in Later Rounds: Three straight rounds to secure unanimous decisions have raised questions about his gas tank when he can’t finish early.

---

Head-to-Head Dynamics

This matchup pits Costa’s grappling-centric approach against Charriere’s knockout artillery. Costa will look to exploit Charriere’s 47% takedown offense and test his ground defense, while Charriere aims to keep the fight upright, leverage his power hooks and volume striking, and punish Costa if he shoots for takedowns. Both fighters share a 50% striking accuracy, but Charriere’s edge in wrestling defense and knockout ratio contrasts sharply with Costa’s superior submission toolkit and durability. Expect a tactical chess match: Costa hunting takedowns to neutralize the knockout threat, and Charriere moving laterally, setting traps, and firing heavy strikes to derail Costa’s wrestling rhythm.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

As of December 6, 2025, the betting line at BetOnline.ag shows:

• Melquizael Costa: -130 (favorite)
• Morgan Charriere: +110 (underdog)

Costa’s status as the narrow favorite reflects oddsmakers’ confidence in his grappling edge and recent three-fight win streak. Charriere, despite his higher knockout total, sits just over even money, offering an attractive price for bettors banking on his power punch to carry the day.

Line Movement Analysis

A closer look at the odds history reveals some intriguing fluctuations:

• Costa opened at -125, shortened to -140 as initial money poured in, and has since settled at -130.
• Charriere began at +105, drifted out to +120 during a lull, then tightened up to +110 once more bets hit the board.

These swings indicate early support for Costa’s wrestling pedigree, followed by a bump in Charriere money as fans wagered on his finishing upside. The current line suggests a near-even battle, with Costa retaining a slight edge.

Payouts & Implied Probabilities

For a $1,000 wager:

• Betting $1,000 on Costa at –130 would return approximately $1,769 (including your original stake), netting $769 profit.
• Betting $1,000 on Charriere at +110 would return $2,100 (including stake), netting $1,100 profit.

These payouts underscore the value on both sides: Costa’s modest favorite price versus Charriere’s underdog bonus. Based on the current moneylines, Costa’s role as favorite implies roughly a 56% chance of victory, while Charriere’s +110 suggests about a 48% shot—recognizing that these probabilities sum to over 100% due to the bookmaker’s margin.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

While multiple sportsbooks offer UFC lines, BetOnline.ag stands out for:

• Consistently competitive odds on both favorites and underdogs
• Transparent line history, allowing bettors to track shifts in real time
• User-friendly interface and reliable customer support

For this fight, locking in the +110 on Charriere or –130 on Costa at BetOnline.ag gives you the clearest view of where the smart money is moving.

---

Key Takeaways

• Favorite: Melquizael Costa at –130, suggesting a slight edge for his grappling game.
• Underdog: Morgan Charriere at +110, offering a bigger payout for his knockout power.
• Line Movement: Early money favored Costa, then ticked toward Charriere before settling.
• Payouts: $1,000 on Costa returns ~$1,769; $1,000 on Charriere returns $2,100.

Whether you back the Brazilian grappler or the French finisher, understanding these odds swings and payouts will help you make an informed wager ahead of the UFC Apex showdown.