UFC Almeida vs Oleksiejczuk: Odds, Analysis & Pick

Cesar Almeida vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

The middleweight clash between Cesar Almeida and Cezary Oleksiejczuk is set to take place on Sunday, December 14, 2025, at 03:00 UTC. This bout will feature on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Kape, hosted at the UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. Neither fighter currently holds a UFC ranking, but momentum and styles make this a highly intriguing matchup.

Venue & Broadcast

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Royval vs Kape
• Date & Time: December 14, 2025 • 03:00 UTC
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV, USA
• Weight Class: Middleweight (up to 185 lb)
• Stages: Main Card

Fans can catch every striking exchange and grappling transition live via ESPN+ (U.S.) and on various international broadcast partners.

Fighters to Watch

Cezary Oleksiejczuk (Blue Corner)

• Origin: Poland
• UFC Debut: Dec. 13, 2025
• Record: 1-0-0 (UFC)
• Odds: -147 (BetOnline.ag) — Favorite
• Key Stats: 100% significant strike accuracy, 100% defense, average fight time of just 36 seconds.

Oleksiejczuk made an explosive UFC debut, earning a first‐round finish in under one minute. A perfect striking metric indicates crisp counters and swift offense, but his sample size is limited to that single appearance.

Cesar Almeida (Red Corner)

• Origin: Brazil
• UFC Debut: Apr. 6, 2024
• Record: 7-1-0 (UFC)
• Odds: +127 (BetOnline.ag) — Underdog
• Key Stats: 5 KOs in 7 wins, 4 first-round finishes, 59% significant strike accuracy, 11:18 average fight time.

Almeida brings veteran savvy with a highlight-reel knockout over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a deep gas tank that has seen him outlast tough opponents. At 37 years old, his power remains elite, but questions about cardio and wrestling defense persist.

Key Storylines

• Experience vs. Lightning: Almeida’s seasoned tenure contrasts with Oleksiejczuk’s shot-in-the-arm speed. Will Almeida survive the early storm and drag the fight into the later rounds?
• Finishing Rates: Both fighters have stoppage prowess—Almeida through heavy hands, Oleksiejczuk through flawless accuracy and timing.
• Tactical Battle: Striking exchanges will be center stage; Almeida must vary his attack to avoid the counterpunching clinic Oleksiejczuk displayed in his debut.

As the heavily tipped favorite, Oleksiejczuk carries expectations to deliver another emphatic finish. Meanwhile, Almeida enters as the bullish underdog, banking on experience, power, and strategic discipline. This fight promises a fascinating clash of styles and an early test of toughness for each athlete under the bright lights of Las Vegas.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Cesar Almeida vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Royval vs Kape can be found on the Royval vs Kape event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Cezary Oleksiejczuk: “The Polish Missile”

Age: 25
Country: Poland
Fighting Style: Striking specialist with counter-punching prowess

Recent Form

• UFC debut: Dec. 13, 2025 – Win (KO/TKO, Round 1, 0:36)
• UFC record: 1-0-0

Oleksiejczuk arrives in the UFC as an unblemished prospect after a lightning-fast finish in his first outing under the bright lights of Las Vegas. While his overall professional record isn’t widely publicized here, his single UFC appearance showcased precision striking, timing, and composure beyond his years.

Strengths

• Explosive Power & Accuracy: 100% significant strike accuracy in UFC action signals pinpoint timing rather than reckless aggression.
• Strike Defense: 100% of incoming significant strikes were successfully defended, indicating elite head movement and distance management.
• Takedown Defense: Perfect 100% mark suggests strong wrestling instincts and the ability to keep the fight standing.

Weaknesses

• Inexperience in Later Rounds: With an average fight time of just 36 seconds, he has yet to prove stamina or effectiveness beyond the opening minutes.
• Takedown Offense: 0% takedown accuracy implies a nearly pure stand-up approach; against a savvy striker with a longer gas tank, he may struggle to force changes of level.
• Limited Sample Size: One UFC bout makes it difficult to predict how he adapts to adversity, adversity, and high-pressure moments.

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Cesar Almeida: “The Brazilian Bulldozer”

Age: 37
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Heavy-handed striker with knockout pedigree

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

1. Jan. 11, 2025 – Win over Abdul Razak Alhassan (KO/TKO, R1, 4:16)
2. Oct. 5, 2024 – Win over Ihor Potieria (Unanimous Decision)
3. Jun. 1, 2024 – Loss to Roman Kopylov (Split Decision)
4. Apr. 6, 2024 – Win over Dylan Budka (KO/TKO, R2, 2:13)

Almeida boasts a 7-1 UFC slate punctuated by five knockout victories, four of which came in the first round. His lone setback was a razor-thin split decision, illustrating he can hang in wars but occasionally gets out-pointed by elite grapplers or volume strikers.

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 5 KOs in 7 wins; heavy hands that change the complexion of a fight with a single shot.
• First-Round Finishes: Four stoppages in Round 1 speak to an aggressive, forward-pressure approach that overwhelms opponents early.
• Experience & Ring IQ: Eight UFC fights under his belt mean he’s battle-tested against diverse styles and has conditioned himself for five-round pacing.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense (48%): He allows over half of incoming strikes to land, indicating lapses in guard and head movement that can lead to volume losses.
• Cardio Concerns: An average fight time of 11:18—far longer than Oleksiejczuk’s brief foray—raises questions about gas tank durability if the finish doesn’t come early.
• Takedown Defense (60%): While decent, he has been taken down by wrestlers and grapplers; against an opportunistic opponent, extended ground scrambles could sap his power.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Youth vs. Veteran Savvy: Oleksiejczuk’s youth, speed, and clinical accuracy contrast sharply with Almeida’s battle-hardened style and one-punch knockout threat.
• Stand-up Battle: Both men prefer striking, but Almeida’s propensity to brawl may play into Oleksiejczuk’s counter-striking strengths.
• Cardio & Durability: If Oleksiejczuk fails to finish early, he’ll face the ultimate test of durability against a heavier hitter accustomed to grinding deep into fights.

This clash of raw explosiveness versus seasoned power promises fireworks—and could hinge on whether Almeida can weather the initial storm and land his own knockout blows.

Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Cezary Oleksiejczuk: –147 (favorite)
• Cesar Almeida: +127 (underdog)

At BetOnline.ag, Oleksiejczuk enters as the clear favorite at –147, meaning you must wager $147 to win $100. Almeida sits at +127, the more enticing underdog number—every $100 staked could net you $127 in profit. The gap between these lines (274 points) underscores oddsmakers’ belief in Oleksiejczuk’s superior skill set and his reputation for ending fights in under a minute.

Underdog vs. Favorite

• Favorite (Oleksiejczuk): 59% implied probability of victory
• Underdog (Almeida): 44% implied probability of victory

Despite Almeida’s veteran experience and knockout power, the market trusts the 25-year-old Polish striker’s speed, accuracy, and spot-on counters. Almeida’s +127 line, however, offers significant value to believers in his ability to absorb early pressure and land fight-changing shots.

Line Movement & Market Confidence

Since odds opened at BetOnline.ag, there have been no significant swings for either man. Both lines have held steady for multiple days, suggesting balanced action from bettors on both sides and confidence in the initial market assessment. As fight night approaches, any sharp bettors or key money could push the line, but so far, stability reigns.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• BetOnline.ag leads the pack for this matchup with the most competitive lines on both fighters.
• Early odds remain consistent across other reputable books, but BetOnline.ag’s -147/+127 pairing offers the tightest spread and no juice-shaving shifts, making it the go-to choice right now.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

• If you back Cezary Oleksiejczuk at –147 and he wins, your $1,000 wager would return approximately $1,680 (your $1,000 stake plus about $680 profit).
• If you back Cesar Almeida at +127 and he wins, your $1,000 wager would return approximately $2,270 (your $1,000 stake plus about $1,270 profit).

What These Odds Mean

The lines reflect a clash between explosive youth and seasoned knockout artistry. Betting Oleksiejczuk locks in a stronger chance at a modest return; betting Almeida is riskier, but delivers a hefty payday if the veteran’s power and fight-IQ prove decisive. With no major line shifts to date, the market’s confidence level is clear—yet Almeida’s upside remains an attractive contrarian play. Stay tuned: any late money or public sentiment swings could tilt these odds in the final hours before the octagon door shuts.