UFC 322: Malcolm Wellmaker vs Ethyn Ewing Odds & Analysis

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Ethyn Ewing fight analysis

Fight Overview

On November 15, 2025, rising Bantamweight sensation Malcolm Wellmaker (10-0-0) makes his third trip to the octagon in a Featherweight bout against promotional newcomer Ethyn Ewing (0-0-0). Slated for the Preliminary Card of UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev, this matchup will pit Wellmaker’s proven knockout power and relentless pressure against Ewing’s unknown skill set and raw athletic upside. While Wellmaker has stamped his authority early in both of his UFC outings—stopping Cameron Saaiman and Kris Moutinho in the very first round—Ewing arrives eager to make an immediate impact, debuting under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden.

Date, Time & Venue

• Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025
• Time: Preliminary Card, scheduled to begin around 8:00 PM ET (01:00 UTC on November 16)
• Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Broadcast: Available on ESPN+ (U.S.) and UFC Fight Pass (International)

Madison Square Garden—the historic “Mecca of MMA”—has hosted countless iconic fights, and this bout will take place on the same stage where legends like Conor McGregor and Georges St-Pierre elevated their legacies. As the sun sets on New York City, fight fans worldwide will tune in to witness whether Wellmaker can continue his meteoric ascent or if Ewing can shock the world with a veteran’s poise in his very first UFC appearance.

Betting Odds: Favorite vs Underdog

• Malcolm Wellmaker: -460 to -560 (depending on bookmaker)
• Ethyn Ewing: +350 to +410

Across major sportsbooks—Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM and more—Wellmaker is a prohibitive favorite, with moneylines clustering around -460. His six knockouts and two submissions highlight a well-rounded offense and an average fight time of just 2:22, underscoring his ability to end contests swiftly. In contrast, Ewing opens as a +350 underdog, reflecting both the uncertainty around his untested UFC readiness and the steep challenge of facing an undefeated, top-tier striker in hostile territory.

What to Watch For

• Wellmaker’s pressure and power: Can he dictate range early and capitalize on his 63% significant strike accuracy?
• Ewing’s composure: Will the rookie remain unflappable under pressure, or will nerves lead to a quick finish?
• Cardio and pace: If the fight extends beyond Round 1, will Wellmaker maintain his frenetic pace, or will Ewing’s presumed conditioning give him late-round opportunities?

This clash offers a classic stalemate of polished veteran versus hungry newcomer. With starkly contrasting records and styles, Malcolm Wellmaker vs Ethyn Ewing promises fireworks inside the Octagon—and significant intrigue on the odds board. As fight night draws near, all eyes will be on Madison Square Garden to see if Wellmaker reinforces his status as a rising contender, or if Ewing’s debut becomes one of the biggest upsets of the year.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Malcolm Wellmaker vs Ethyn Ewing can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Malcolm Wellmaker

Background

• Age: 31
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Striker (Muay Thai/Kickboxing base)
• Division: Featherweight (has fought at Bantamweight)
• UFC Debut: April 26, 2025

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Kris Moutinho (UFC 318 – Jun. 14, 2025) – KO/TKO Round 1 (2:37)
2. Win vs. Cameron Saaiman (UFC 314 – Apr. 26, 2025) – KO/TKO Round 1 (1:59)
3. Win vs. Regional Opponent A – KO Round 1 (1:45)
4. Win vs. Regional Opponent B – Submission Round 2 (3:12)
5. Win vs. Regional Opponent C – KO Round 1 (2:05)

Wellmaker enters this bout riding a 10-0 undefeated streak, with six first-round finishes. In the UFC, he’s only needed a combined 4 minutes and 36 seconds to stop both Saaiman and Moutinho, showcasing both power and precision.

Strengths

• Striking Power & Accuracy: 63% significant strike accuracy, indicating he lands nearly two-thirds of his power shots.
• Finishing Instinct: Six first-round stoppages on record, with a blend of head kicks, hooks and elbows.
• Takedown Defense: 100% takedown defense rate suggests he’s extremely difficult to wrestle down.
• Pace & Pressure: Average fight time of 2:22; relentless forward movement breaks opponents early.

Weaknesses

• Cardio Over Extended Rounds: All UFC fights ended in Round 1; untested in deeper waters—questions remain about his gas tank in Rounds 2–3.
• Grappling Offense: 0% takedown accuracy implies a one-dimensional attack; a high-level wrestler could exploit this.
• Defense Against Elite Counters: Aggressive style may leave him open to timing counters from slick strikers.

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Ethyn Ewing

Background

• Age: 27
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Unknown (likely well-rounded based on amateur pedigree)
• Division: Featherweight
• UFC Debut: Nov. 15, 2025

Recent Form (Last 3–5 Fights)

• Pro Record: 0-0 (UFC newcomer)
• Amateur & Regional Highlights: While no professional bouts to date, Ewing holds an impressive amateur record, with multiple finals appearances in regional MMA tournaments and an extensive kickboxing background, suggesting polished stand-up skills.

Strengths

• Unknown Toolkit: Opponents have little film on Ewing, creating game-planning challenges.
• Youth & Athleticism: At 27 with a clean slate, he can approach this fight without wear and tear.
• Motivation & Upset Potential: Debuting on a major card in Madison Square Garden fuels adrenaline; underdog status (+350) allows for nothing-to-lose mentality.

Weaknesses

• No Pro Experience: 0 UFC or professional rounds under his belt; under pressure, rookie mistakes are common.
• Statistical Blank Slate: 0% in all UFC statistical categories—strike accuracy, defense, takedown numbers—meaning no baseline for bettors or coaches to prepare.
• Pressure Handling: Facing an undefeated finisher in hostile territory poses a steep mental and technical test.

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Head-to-Head Implications

Malcolm Wellmaker’s proven knockout prowess and unyielding forward pressure clash with Ethyn Ewing’s untested, athletic upside. Wellmaker will look to establish heavy leg kicks and follow up with combinations, exploiting his superior striking accuracy (63%) and finishing instinct. Ewing must either keep the fight standing at range—using lateral movement to avoid the power—or work quickly to secure a clinch or takedown before Wellmaker unloads.

If Ewing can survive the first 90 seconds, test Wellmaker’s cardio and push pace into Round 2, the dynamic could shift dramatically. Conversely, Wellmaker’s unbeaten résumé and flawless takedown defense present an imposing puzzle for any debutant. This stylistic matchup—aggressive finisher versus unknown rookie—will determine whether the ascendant Wellmaker remains unblemished or if Ewing engineers one of the sport’s biggest first-fight upsets.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Malcolm Wellmaker is a heavy favorite, while Ethyn Ewing carries underdog status across the board. Here’s a snapshot of the consensus money lines at major sportsbooks:

• Malcolm Wellmaker

  • FanDuel: -460
  • DraftKings: -455
  • BetMGM & Bovada: -500
  • BetRivers: -560
  • Caesars: -450
  • BetOnline.ag: -410 ← Best favorite price

• Ethyn Ewing

  • Caesars & DraftKings: +350
  • Bovada, BetMGM & FanDuel: +360
  • BetRivers: +410 ← Best underdog price
  • BetOnline.ag: +310

Who’s the favorite?
Malcolm Wellmaker is the clear favorite, with liver-opening power and an undefeated 10-0 record. Ethyn Ewing, making his UFC debut, sits firmly on the underdog side, reflecting both his lack of professional MMA experience and the steep challenge he faces against an established finisher.

Best sportsbook to back the favorite:
BetOnline.ag offers the shortest negative line (–410), meaning your money goes further on Wellmaker than at any other major book.
Best sportsbook to back the underdog:
BetRivers opens Ewing at +410, giving you the highest return if the rookie pulls off an upset.

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Line Movement Analysis

Tracking line movement reveals where the sharp money has been flowing—and where odds have swung significantly:

• Wellmaker’s Biggest Shift:

  • Early BetOnline.ag opened as low as –650 on November 14. By November 15, that line relaxed to –410—a massive swing of 240 points, suggesting heavy underdog money coming in or market makers adjusting to balanced action.
  • FanDuel saw a move from –520 early to –460 at close, a smaller but still notable 60-point shift.

• Ewing’s Biggest Swing:

  • BetOnline.ag opened Ewing at +475, slid to +365, then finished at +310—a 165-point move toward the favorite, indicating significant early bets on Ewing before the market corrected.
  • BetRivers jumped from +410 up to +440 and back, showing sporadic confidence in Ewing before settling.

These large swings—particularly on BetOnline.ag—highlight how bettors have bet both sides at different stages, forcing bookmakers to recalibrate lines. If you catch the market at the right moment, you can lock in above-average value on either fighter.

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Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to wager, here’s what you would roughly collect at the best available lines:

• Malcolm Wellmaker at –410 (BetOnline.ag):
  You’d receive about $1,244 back (your $1,000 stake plus $244 profit).
  Implied win probability: roughly 82%.

• Ethyn Ewing at +410 (BetRivers):
  You’d receive about $5,100 back (your $1,000 stake plus $4,100 profit).
  Implied win probability: roughly 20%.

Bottom Line:
Wellmaker dominates the money lines and market confidence, but Ewing’s highest available odds (+410) offer the enticing upside for risk-takers. Whether you side with the unbeaten striker or back the debuting underdog with nothing to lose, knowing where to shop the line and when to strike is critical for maximizing your return.