UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett fight analysis

Event Overview

The highly anticipated Interim Lightweight Title main event of UFC 324 pits two of the division’s most electric competitors against one another when Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett takes on former title challenger Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje. Scheduled for January 25, 2026, this clash will headline the pay-per-view broadcast from the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Fighters and fans alike will descend on the Entertainment Capital of the World for what promises to be a night filled with high-octane striking, relentless pace, and career-defining stakes.

Venue & Date

• Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
• Local Start Time (Main Card): 8:00 PM PT / 11:00 PM ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, United States
• Event: UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett (Main Card begins at 2:00 UTC, headlinerCommence at 4:30 UTC)

Marked as a Lightweight Interim Title bout, this fight not only features two top-five contenders in the division but also carries the larger narrative of crowning an interim champion who could unify the belt later in 2026. The electrifying atmosphere of T-Mobile Arena—renowned for hosting some of the UFC’s most memorable showdowns—will be the perfect stage for this battle of styles.

Betting Odds & Key Matchup

Oddsmakers have installed Paddy Pimblett as the clear favorite, with his moneyline resting around –230 across major sportsbooks (BetRivers: –235, FanDuel: –230, DraftKings: –225). The Liverpool native has surged in popularity since his UFC debut in September 2021, earning wins over the likes of Michael Chandler (KO/TKO, Round 3), Tony Ferguson (Unanimous Decision), and Bobby Green (Submission, Round 1). His dynamic striking, unorthodox angles, and confident in-cage persona have made him one of the most backed rising stars of 2025.

On the other side of the ledger, Justin Gaethje enters as the underdog at approximately +185 (BetMGM: +185, FanDuel: +176, Bovada: +190). Despite a 27-5-0 record and an all-out war style that has produced 20 knockouts, Gaethje has slipped outside of title contention since his last interim title fight in 2021. However, his résumé remains among the most fearsome in the division—featuring highlight-reel finishes of Dustin Poirier, multiple victories over Rafael Fiziev, and a narrow loss to former champion Max Holloway in 2024. Known for his punishing leg kicks, iron-chin durability, and willingness to brawl, Gaethje is exactly the type of challenger who can capitalize on an over-eager favorite.

Introduction Summary

As the lights go down and the Octagon cage is assembled on center stage, all eyes will be on two contrasting trajectories: the young, ascending star in Paddy Pimblett, and the battle-tested veteran in Justin Gaethje. With the interim title on the line and momentum swinging heavily in favor of Pimblett, this fight serves as the ultimate proving ground for Gaethje’s enduring championship ambitions—and a golden opportunity for “The Baddy” to cement his status as the face of the lightweight division moving into 2026. Fans can expect non-stop action, high-volume striking exchanges, and either man’s career trajectory forever altered by the outcome.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett

Background

• Age: 30
• Country: England
• Fighting Style: Submission specialist with unorthodox striking—mixes high‐pace boxing, creative angles and slick Brazilian jiu-jitsu transitions.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Apr. 12, 2025 – Win vs Michael Chandler (KO/TKO, R3 at 3:07)
2. Jul. 27, 2024 – Win vs Bobby Green (Submission, R1 at 3:22)
3. Dec. 16, 2023 – Win vs Tony Ferguson (Unanimous Decision)
4. Dec. 10, 2022 – Win vs Jared Gordon (Unanimous Decision)
5. Jul. 23, 2022 – Win vs Jordan Leavitt (Submission, R2 at 2:46)

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (54%): Above-average output, finds openings with flurries and feints—but can be reckless.
• Submission Arsenal (10 career subs): Leverages jiu-jitsu whenever opponent drops levels or presses forward.
• Takedown Defense (50%): Vulnerable to wrestlers who chain double-legs; eats strikes when defending takedowns.
• Strike Defense (42%): Below-par—absorbs a high volume of significant strikes, leaving him open in exchanges if he overcommits.
• Finish Rate: 0 first-round finishes suggests he excels as fights develop but may struggle to close out early.

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Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje

Background

• Age: 37
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: All-out brawler—relentless leg kicks, heavy hands and iron‐chin durability. Prefers striking range but will engage in firefights.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Mar. 8, 2025 – Win vs Rafael Fiziev (Unanimous Decision)
2. Apr. 13, 2024 – Loss vs Max Holloway (KO/TKO, R5 at 4:59)
3. Jul. 29, 2023 – Win vs Dustin Poirier (KO/TKO, R2 at 1:00)
4. Mar. 18, 2023 – Win vs Rafael Fiziev (Majority Decision)
5. May 7, 2022 – Loss vs Charles Oliveira (Submission, R1 at 3:22)

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (59%): Elite precision—picks corners with punishing leg kicks and overhand rights.
• Significant Strike Defense (52%): Solid head movement and footwork—avoids just over half of opponents’ power shots.
• Takedown Defense (68%): Excellent sprawl-and-brawl—rarely endangered on the mat but offers little wrestling offense (14% accuracy).
• Knockout Power (20 KOs) & First-Round Finishes (9): Terrifying early—capable of ending fights in first 60 seconds.
• Ground Game Vulnerability: No submission wins; was caught late by Oliveira—susceptible to high-level grapplers who can survive early onslaught.

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Comparative Analysis

• Experience vs. Momentum: Gaethje’s 32 UFC bouts and four title-level appearances contrast Pimblett’s rapid five-fight win streak since UFC debut.
• Striking Battle: Pimblett’s volume and movement vs. Gaethje’s accuracy and power promises war of attrition.
• Grappling Dynamics: Neither imposes dominant wrestling, but Pimblett seeks submissions—Gaethje must defend aggressively or risk being dragged into ground scrambles.
• Stamina & Pace: Pimblett averages shorter fights (8:56) and pushes pace; Gaethje’s gas tank proven over 25+ minutes but thrives early.

Both athletes bring clear strengths and exploitable gaps—this stylistic dichotomy sets the stage for a riveting clash that could end anywhere, anytime.

Odds & Betting Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, Paddy Pimblett sits firmly as the favorite across the board, with his moneyline ranging between –220 and –235 at major sportsbooks:

• BetRivers: –235
• BetMGM: –225
• DraftKings: –225
• FanDuel: –230
• Bovada: –230
• Caesars: –225
• BetOnline.ag: –220

In contrast, Justin Gaethje is the clear underdog, carrying a moneyline between +176 and +190:

• BetRivers: +185
• BetMGM: +185
• DraftKings: +185
• FanDuel: +176
• Bovada: +190
• Caesars: +185
• BetOnline.ag: +185

Best Sportsbook to Back the Favorite:
• If you’re backing Pimblett, BetOnline.ag offers the juiciest line at –220, meaning you risk less to win the same.

Best Sportsbook to Back the Underdog:
• For Gaethje bettors, Bovada leads with +190, maximizing your potential upside.

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Odds History & Line Movement

Tracking line movement from late December through mid-January reveals a shift in public perception:

• On December 26, Pimblett opened as a hefty –275 favorite at BetRivers, only to see that price firm up to –235 by January 12.
• Over the same period, Gaethje drifted from +210 down to +185, reflecting growing confidence in his ability to pull off the upset.

The most notable swings occurred:

1. Pimblett: A rapid climb from –275 to –245 in the first week of January, then a gradual move to the current –235.
2. Gaethje: Sharpened from +210 to +185 across multiple books, indicating bettors responding to his durable résumé and recent tactical tweaks.

While Pimblett’s line retreat suggests some money finding value on Gaethje, he remains a solid favorite. The narrowing spread hints at a bettor split—some backing the hype of the rising “Baddy,” others trusting Gaethje’s veteran firepower.

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Betting Scenarios & Payouts

If you had $1,000 to wager, here’s what your return would look like:

Backing Paddy Pimblett

• At –230 (FanDuel): A $1,000 bet returns $1,434.78 (your $1,000 stake plus $434.78 profit).
• At the softer –220 (BetOnline.ag): A $1,000 bet returns $1,454.55 (your stake plus $454.55 profit).

Backing Justin Gaethje

• At +185 (major books): A $1,000 bet returns $2,850 (your stake plus $1,850 profit).
• At +190 (Bovada): A $1,000 bet returns $2,900 (your stake plus $1,900 profit).

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Implied Probabilities

Based on current lines, Pimblett carries roughly a 70% chance to win, while Gaethje sits at about 35% on the moneyline—underscoring the market’s lean toward the young Brit but still leaving room for the veteran’s upset potential.

Whether you ride with the hometown favorite or bank on Gaethje’s highlight-reel power, these odds provide actionable insight on where the smart money is leaning—and where the value might lie on fight night.