Harrison vs Nunes UFC 324 Odds & Betting Analysis

Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes fight analysis

Overview

The highly anticipated Women’s Bantamweight Title showdown between Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes is set to headline the main card of UFC 324 on January 25, 2026, at the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The action gets underway when the main card begins at 6:00 p.m. PT, with Harrison vs. Nunes slated to walk to the Octagon around 6:30 p.m. PT. As the culmination of the evening’s top fights, this title bout promises to captivate fight fans around the globe, delivering elite striking exchanges, grappling mastery, and the drama only a championship battle can provide.

Location & Timing

• Event: UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Main Card)
• Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
• Arena: T-Mobile Arena
• City: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
• Local Start Time: 6:00 p.m. PT
• Estimated Bout Time: 6:30 p.m. PT (9:30 p.m. ET)

The Contenders

Kayla Harrison enters this matchup as the reigning Women’s Bantamweight Champion and the clear betting favorite, priced at -245 on the American odds boards with DraftKings, BetRivers, FanDuel, BetMGM and other major sportsbooks. Harrison boasts an undefeated 19–1 professional record under the Eagle’s watchful eye, combining her Olympic-level judo with a rapidly evolving striking arsenal. Her perfect 100% takedown defense ensures she dictates where this fight takes place—against the cage or in the pocket—while her 62% significant strike accuracy and 66% defense underline her striking pedigree.

Conversely, Amanda Nunes arrives as the quintessential underdog at +190, a status that belies her decorated résumé as the most dominant two-division champion in UFC history. At 23–5, “The Lioness” brings championship caliber power, earning 13 knockouts and four submissions over her storied career. Nunes’s 55% takedown accuracy and 82% takedown defense make her a threat to drag Harrison into deep water on the mat, while her ferocious striking—52% accuracy and 58% defense—has finished 14 of her foes in the opening frame alone.

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Favorite: Kayla Harrison (–245)
  – Elite takedown defense and grappling background
  – Growing power and technical striking improvements
  – Unblemished record in UFC title fights
• Underdog: Amanda Nunes (+190)
  – Formidable championship experience at bantamweight
  – Proven knockout artist with heavy hands
  – High‐level submission threats in short order

As the betting lines attest, Harrison is heavily favored to retain her title on home soil. However, Nunes’s championship savvy and ruthless aggression make her a live underdog, capable of exploiting any lapse in Harrison’s nascent striking defense. With stylistic contrasts—Harrison’s grinding judo versus Nunes’s explosive mixed‐martial‐arts toolkit—this bout is poised to deliver a thrilling clash that could swing either way.

Stay tuned as these two elite athletes step into the Octagon on January 25, under the bright lights of Las Vegas, aiming to solidify their legacies among the greatest women’s fighters in UFC history.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Fighter Profiles and Matchup Breakdown

Kayla Harrison: The Dominant Judoka

Age: 35 | Country: United States | Fighting Style: Judo

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights):

• Loss vs. Julianna Peña (June 7, 2025)
• Win vs. Ketlen Vieira (Oct. 5, 2024)
• Win vs. Holly Holm (Apr. 13, 2024)

Strengths:

• Takedown Defense (100%): Harrison has yet to be grounded in UFC competition, negating opponents’ key offensive tools.
• Grappling & Ground Control: Olympic gold–medalist credentials translate to relentless top control and submission transitions (8 career subs).
• Striking Accuracy (62%): After two years in MMA, her punching and elbow output has become precise, allowing her to score without overcommitting.
• Cardio & Durability: An average fight time of 10:34 shows she can maintain pace deep into championship rounds.

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Offense (38%): Despite elite clinch work, she converts fewer than four out of ten takedown attempts—an area Amanda Nunes may exploit.
• Limited Heavy-Handed Power: With 6 KOs in 19 wins, Harrison’s knockout ceiling lags behind Nunes’s ferocity, making her less likely to finish on her feet.
• Striking Defense (66%): While solid, it is marginally lower than her opponent’s defense, leaving her open to counter-strikes from a specialist like Nunes.

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Amanda Nunes: The Lioness Reborn

Age: 35 | Country: Brazil | Fighting Style: Striker

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Win vs. Irene Aldana (June 10, 2023)
• Win vs. Julianna Peña (July 30, 2022)
• Loss vs. Julianna Peña (Dec. 11, 2021)
• Win vs. Megan Anderson (Mar. 6, 2021)
• Win vs. Felicia Spencer (June 6, 2020)

Strengths:

• Knockout Power: 13 KOs in 23 wins, including 14 first-round finishes, make her one of the most dangerous strikers in women’s MMA.
• Balanced Grappling (55% TD Accuracy, 82% Defense): Nunes mixes her striking with takedown entries and elite takedown defense, keeping opponents guessing.
• Experience & Ring IQ: As a two-division champion, she has faced—and beaten—the very best, giving her a strategic edge in high-pressure moments.
• Significant Strike Output: 52% accuracy and high volume allow her to overwhelm slower-paced fighters.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense (58%): Susceptible to counters, especially against a technical striker with precise timing like Harrison.
• Age & Wear: At 35 and having competed at the highest level for over a decade, accumulated damage and mileage could slow her reflexes.
• Takedown Defense vs. Elite Grapplers: While 82% is strong, Harrison’s judo pedigree may crack Nunes’s defensive ceiling.

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Head-to-Head Outlook

This matchup pits Harrison’s impervious takedown defense and high-percentage striking against Nunes’s brute power and veteran savvy. Harrison must press the pace, mix short-range strikes with clinch entries, and avoid overextending on takedowns. Nunes’s path to victory lies in landing heavy strikes early, exploiting Harrison’s lower KO ratio, and securing takedowns when Harrison’s penetration dips below her typical 38% success rate.

Ultimately, Harrison’s strengths neutralize much of Nunes’s grappling arsenal, but the women’s bantamweight throne will be decided by whether Harrison can withstand the Lioness’s knockout pulses—or if Nunes can navigate in close enough to test Harrison’s takedown offense and finish the champion on her feet.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Lines

• Kayla Harrison (Favorite):
  – BetRivers: –245 
  – BetMGM: –225 
  – Bovada: –220 
  – DraftKings: –225 
  – FanDuel & Caesars: –205 

• Amanda Nunes (Underdog):
  – BetRivers: +190 
  – BetMGM: +185 
  – DraftKings: +185 
  – Bovada: +180 
  – Caesars: +170 
  – FanDuel: +158 

Best Sportsbook to Back Each Fighter

• Kayla Harrison: Caesars or FanDuel at –205 (risking $205 to win $100) offers the lowest juice and highest potential profit on the favorite.
• Amanda Nunes: BetRivers at +190 (winning $190 on a $100 wager) delivers the biggest upside on the underdog.

Line Movement & Swings

• Harrison’s Line: Opened around –190 at Caesars (late December) and steadily slid to –245 at BetRivers by fight week. The heaviest shift came after Harrison’s impressive sparring reports on January 2, fueling a sharper favorite and moving from –200 to –245 in under 10 days.
• Nunes’s Line: At BetOnline.ag, Nunes swung dramatically from +168 (Dec. 26) down to +150 within hours, then climbed back toward +180 by January 10. BetMGM showed Nunes shifting from +155 (Dec. 29) to +175 (Jan. 8), a 20-point move as bettors reacted to rumors of Nunes sharpening her wrestling defense.

These fluctuations reflect sharper money backing Harrison mid-January and occasional “value buys” on Nunes when contrarian bettors jumped in.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances

If you wager $1,000 today:

• On Kayla Harrison at –205 (FanDuel/Caesars):
  – Profit: ~$487
  – Total Return: ~$1,487
  – Implied Win Probability: ~71%
• On Amanda Nunes at +190 (BetRivers):
  – Profit: $1,900
  – Total Return: $2,900
  – Implied Win Probability: ~35%

Summary

• Favorite vs. Underdog Differential: Harrison is heavily favored (roughly 2–1 on average), reflecting her undefeated title reign and near-perfect grappling defense. Nunes carries a live underdog tag—if history and power punching matter, her odds offer tremendous upside.
• Best Betting Value: Lock in Harrison at –205 with Caesars or FanDuel to minimize juice. If seeking a high-risk/high-reward play, back Nunes at +190 via BetRivers.
• Line Movers to Watch: Any further slip from Harrison below –250 or rise of Nunes above +200 will indicate significant public lean or insider confidence—prime windows to strike before sportsbooks adjust their limits.