Umar Nurmagomedov vs Figueiredo UFC 324 Odds & Analysis

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo fight analysis

Introduction

On January 25, 2026, fight fans will turn their eyes to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, as the bantamweight division’s top contenders square off on the preliminary card of UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett. Scheduled to start at approximately 8:00 PM PT (the exact main card kick-off time follows the early bouts), this matchup features two contrasting styles, divergent career trajectories, and a significant betting line that makes one man a prohibitive favorite and the other a resurgent underdog.

When and Where

• Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, United States
• Card Position: Preliminary Card bout, expected around 8:00 PM PT

The Fighters

• Umar Nurmagomedov (#2, Bantamweight)
  • Record: 19–1–0
  • Age: 29 (Dagestan, Russia)
  • Fighting Style: MMA (well-rounded with elite grappling)
  • UFC Debut: January 20, 2021

• Deiveson Figueiredo (#6, Bantamweight)
  • Record: 25–5–1
  • Age: 37 (Soure, Brazil)
  • Fighting Style: Boxing with powerful submission arsenal
  • UFC Debut: June 3, 2017

The Odds

From the opening bell of betting availability through the latest odds update on January 12, 2026, the sportsbooks have made clear who they believe will prevail:

• Favorite: Umar Nurmagomedov (American odds range roughly –1450 to –2500 depending on the book)
• Underdog: Deiveson Figueiredo (American odds between +750 and +950)

The disparity in the money line underscores the bookies’ confidence in Umar’s blend of high‐level wrestling, suffocating top control, and improving striking, pegging him as a heavy favorite to overcome the veteran Brazilian.

Key Storylines

1. Youth vs. Experience
   At 29, Umar is at the peak of his physical prowess with only one loss—a narrow five-round decision to Merab Dvalishvili in January 2025. Figueiredo, at 37, brings world-class boxing and a nine-submission win tally, but questions linger about his ability to handle a wrestler of Nurmagomedov’s caliber over three hard rounds.

2. Styles Make Fights

   • Nurmagomedov’s grappling: 48% takedown accuracy, 79% takedown defense, and a 61% significant strike defense give him two lanes to victory—pound out decisions or submit opponents.
   • Figueiredo’s power: 54% striking accuracy, 49% defense, plus 11 first-round finishes in his career make him dangerous early if he can keep the fight standing.

3. Division Implications
   A decisive win for Umar solidifies his status as the next title challenger, while a upset by Figueiredo would send shockwaves through the bantamweight title picture and revitalize a career that once reigned at flyweight.

With the stage set, let’s dive deeper into how these two warriors match up round by round, examine where their strengths and weaknesses collide, and outline the best betting strategies for this intriguing clash.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Individual Fighter Profiles

Umar Nurmagomedov Profile

Age: 29
Country: Republic of Dagestan, Russia
Fighting Style: MMA (well‐rounded; elite wrestling & grappling)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Oct. 25, 2025: Win vs. Mario Bautista – Decision (Unanimous)
• Jan. 18, 2025: Loss vs. Merab Dvalishvili – Decision (Unanimous)
• Aug. 3, 2024: Win vs. Cory Sandhagen – Decision (Unanimous)
• Mar. 2, 2024: Win vs. Bekzat Almakhan – Decision (Unanimous)
• Jan. 14, 2023: Win vs. Raoni Barcelos – KO/TKO (Round 1, 4:40)

Umar enters this fight riding the high of four wins out of his last five, all victories via decision except his first‐round finish of Barcelos. His lone setback was a narrow five‐round loss to Dvalishvili, showcasing a competitive championship‐caliber effort.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths
  • Takedown Defense (79%): Rarely put on his back, frustrates wrestlers and top‐game specialists.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy (57%): Efficient at landing shots from distance and in the clinch.
  • Striking Defense (61%): Minimizes damage, avoids prolonged firefights.
  • Cardio & Pace: Averages nearly 14 minutes of fight time—built for three‐ and five‐round wars, controlling tempo.

• Weaknesses
  • Finishing Rate: Only 2 KOs and 7 submissions in 19 wins—struggles to stop elite opposition early.
  • Striking Power: Lacks one‐punch knockout threat; must rely on wrestling or volume striking.
  • Predictability: High reliance on wrestling could be exploited by fighters with elite takedown defense.

---

Deiveson Figueiredo Profile

Age: 37
Country: Soure, Brazil
Fighting Style: Boxing with submission pedigree

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Oct. 11, 2025: Win vs. Montel Jackson – Decision (Split)
• May 3, 2025: Loss vs. Cory Sandhagen – KO/TKO (Round 2, 4:08)
• Nov. 23, 2024: Loss vs. Petr Yan – Decision (Unanimous)
• Aug. 3, 2024: Win vs. Marlon Vera – Decision (Unanimous)
• Apr. 13, 2024: Win vs. Cody Garbrandt – Submission (Round 2, 4:02)

Figueiredo has split his last six bouts 3–2–1, bouncing back from back‐to‐back losses with a razor‐thin split decision over Jackson. His track record shows he remains dangerous but has encountered challenges against the division’s elite.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths
  • Finishing Ability: 9 KOs and 9 submissions in 25 wins; 11 first‐round finishes highlight his fast‐trigger power and submission instincts.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy (54%): Lands over half his attempted strikes, making every jab and hook count.
  • Experience & Ring IQ: Former two‐time flyweight champion with high‐level fight‐management skills.
  • Explosive Offense: Thrives in early rounds, forcing opponents to respect his power.

• Weaknesses
  • Takedown Defense (57%): Vulnerable to wrestlers—lacks the explosiveness to defend against elite grapplers consistently.
  • Cardio Concerns: Past five‐round championship fights have taxed his stamina; longer fights may open him up to takedowns and volume.
  • Strike Defense (49%): Nearly half of significant strikes get through, risking accumulation against high‐output strikers.
  • Age & Wear: At 37, he has logged over 30 UFC fights—questions linger about durability against a younger, fresher opponent.

---

This clash pits Umar’s suffocating grappling and precision striking against Deiveson’s explosive power and veteran savvy. Nurmagomedov will look to grind where Figueiredo is weakest—against the cage and on the ground—while Figueiredo must land heavy shots early and stop the wrestling to secure an upset. Both men bring distinct skill sets, making this one of the most stylistically intriguing bouts of UFC 324’s preliminary card.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update on January 12, 2026, the sportsbooks have firmly established Umar Nurmagomedov as the heavy favorite and Deiveson Figueiredo as the clear underdog:

• Umar Nurmagomedov (–1450 at DraftKings, –1600 at Bovada, –1800 at Caesars, –1667 at BetRivers, –2500 at BetMGM)
• Deiveson Figueiredo (+950 at BetRivers, +900 at Caesars & BetMGM, +850 at DraftKings, +800 at Bovada & BetOnline.ag, +750 at FanDuel)

The widest gap appears at BetMGM (Umar –2500 vs. Figueiredo +900), underscoring the books’ confidence in Nurmagomedov’s wrestling and overall dominance. Conversely, the most enticing underdog price is +950 at BetRivers, making it the go-to destination for Deiveson backers.

Line Movement & Notable Swings

Tracking the line movement from early December through January reveals significant swings:

• Nurmagomedov
  – Opened around –1450 on DraftKings in late December
  – Drifted to –1600 by January 4
  – Sharply moved to –1800 at Caesars by January 12
  – Peaked at –2500 on BetMGM as bettors loaded up on the favorite

• Figueiredo
  – Began near +850 on DraftKings and +800 on Bovada in late December
  – Briefly dipped to +750 at FanDuel
  – Rebounded to +950 at BetRivers by January 12

These movements indicate heavy wagering on Umar, pushing his line lower, while the underdog’s number ballooned in response. The 400-point shift on Caesars (from –1400 on Jan. 4 to –1800 on Jan. 12) is especially notable—an indication that sharp money has poured in on Nurmagomedov’s side.

Best Sportsbooks for Value

• Underdog Value: BetRivers at +950 offers the highest return on Figueiredo.
• Favorite Value: DraftKings at –1450 provides the smallest juice for Nurmagomedov.
• Consistent Pricing: Bovada and BetOnline.ag sit in the middle, but neither matches the standout lines at DraftKings or BetRivers.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet Payouts

• Betting $1,000 on Umar Nurmagomedov at –1450 (DraftKings) would return approximately $1,069 (your $1,000 stake plus about $69 profit).
• Betting $1,000 on Deiveson Figueiredo at +950 (BetRivers) would return approximately $10,500 (your $1,000 stake plus about $9,500 profit).

Those looking for a small-risk play may back Nurmagomedov at DraftKings, while those chasing a high-reward scenario will target Figueiredo at BetRivers.

Implied Probabilities

• Umar Nurmagomedov: Implied win probability hovers around 93–94%, reflecting the market’s near-certainty in his victory.
• Deiveson Figueiredo: Implied win probability sits around 9–10%, highlighting his status as a longshot.

Whether you’re aiming to lock in a modest return on the overwhelming favorite or chase a ten-bagger with the underdog, these odds and their history give you a clear roadmap for wagering on this bantamweight showdown.