Volkanovski vs Lopes: UFC 325 Odds & Analysis

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes fight analysis

Introduction

On Sunday, February 1, 2026, fight fans will descend on Sydney Olympic Park’s Qudos Bank Arena for the Featherweight Title showdown between reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski and Brazil’s top contender Diego Lopes. This marquee main-event bout headlines UFC 325, with the octagon door set to lock at 02:00 AM UTC (check your local listings for exact start times). As the promoter’s crown jewel in Australia’s New South Wales capital, this matchup pits the division’s unbeaten titleholder against the surging #2 contender in a fight that promises high-octane striking exchanges, elite grappling scraps, and strategic chess in five full rounds.

Volkanovski, a 37-year-old from Wollongong, Australia, has cemented his legacy as one of the sport’s all-time great featherweights. Boasting a 27-4-0 record with 13 knockout victories and 70% takedown defense, he returns to defend the belt on home soil for the first time since capturing the strap. With 57% significant strike accuracy and an average fight time of 16:21, “The Great” combines precision boxing, relentless forward pressure, and a granite chin that have humbled every opponent to date. His -160 to -170 (depending on the sportsbook) opening odds firmly establish him as the favorite, reflecting the oddsmakers’ confidence in his ability to neutralize Borges’ wrestling attempts, maintain range, and exploit his reach (71.5" arm) against anyone daring to dethrone him.

Standing across the cage is Diego Lopes, a 30-year-old Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace from Manaus. With a 27-7-0 record, 12 submission wins, and 56% takedown accuracy, he has systematically climbed the featherweight rankings by dispatching elite foes like Jean Silva (KO in Round 2) and Brian Ortega (unanimous decision). Despite a loss to Volkanovski in their first meeting last April, Lopes’ +125 to +136 odds cast him as the underdog, highlighting the betting value for those bullish on his slick ground game, relentless cardio, and youth advantage in this rematch. His power (11 KO’s) and submission arsenal make him a persistent threat, especially if he can close distance, nullify the champion’s striking, and impose his grappling.

This rematch carries added intrigue: can Volkanovski adapt to Lopes’ improved striking and ground sequences, or will Lopes avenge his defeat by exploiting weaknesses in the champion’s wrestling defense? With the title on the line, expect a dramatic clash of styles—precision vs. power, experience vs. evolution—on one of the sport’s grandest stages. Whether you’re tuning in for the fireworks inside the octagon or hunting value bets on the spread, Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes is a can’t-miss fight that will define the next era of featherweight supremacy.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Alexander Volkanovski Profile

Age: 37
Country: Australia
Fighting Style: Pressure striking & wrestling
Record: 27-4-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Apr. 2025: Win vs Diego Lopes – Unanimous Decision
• Feb. 2024: Loss vs Ilia Topuria – KO/TKO (R2, 3:32)
• Oct. 2023: Loss vs Islam Makhachev – KO/TKO (R1, 3:06)
• Jul. 2023: Win vs Yair Rodriguez – KO/TKO (R3, 4:19)
• Feb. 2023: Loss vs Islam Makhachev – Unanimous Decision

Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski headlines UFC 325 with a resume built on relentless forward pressure, pinpoint combinations and iron-chinned durability. His 57% significant strike accuracy ranks among the division’s best, and he boasts a 59% defense rate, meaning he evades or blocks nearly six out of ten heavy blows. At 66″ tall with a 71.5″ reach, he often offsets longer opponents by cutting angles and working inside. Despite his elite striking, Volkanovski’s wrestling offense lags behind—he converts just 34% of takedown attempts—but he defends 70% of incoming shots, making him very difficult to ground.

Strengths:

• Precision Striking: 57% accuracy allows him to out-land and out-point foes over five rounds.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 16:21 underscores his comfort in championship rounds; three KO losses are his only blots.
• Takedown Defense: At 70%, he neutralizes wrestling specialists and keeps fights in his preferred range.

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Offense: A 34% conversion rate limits his ability to impose top control.
• Susceptibility to Power: Two knockout defeats in his last four fights suggest vulnerability to heavy hitters.
• Size Disadvantage: At 66″ tall, he gives up height to many top-10 featherweights.

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Diego Lopes Profile

Age: 30
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu & power striking
Record: 27-7-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Sep. 2025: Win vs Jean Silva – KO/TKO (R2, 4:48)
• Apr. 2025: Loss vs Alexander Volkanovski – Unanimous Decision
• Sep. 2024: Win vs Brian Ortega – Unanimous Decision
• Jun. 2024: Win vs Dan Ige – Unanimous Decision
• Apr. 2024: Win vs Sodiq Yusuff – KO/TKO (R1, 1:29)

Lopes enters as a dynamic finisher with a 56% takedown success rate and 68% defense, blending striking power (11 KOs) with world-class submission acumen (12 subs). Towering 71″ with a 72.5″ reach, he often out-lengthens opponents and closes distance with lunging combinations. His average fight time of 10:31 reflects an aggressive style built on early finishes: 15 of his 27 wins end in the first round.

Strengths:

• Grappling Prowess: 56% takedown accuracy and a deep BJJ arsenal make him a constant threat on the mat.
• Finishing Instinct: 23 finishes in 27 wins; his top-control and ground-and-pound are relentless once he locks in.
• Reach & Size: 71″ height and 72.5″ reach give him the tools to manage distance or clinch against shorter foes.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: At 47%, he absorbs over half of significant strikes, leaving him open to volume boxing.
• Cardio Depth: His early-round style raises questions about durability in long, high-pace battles.
• Striking Accuracy: 49% clip means he misses one-out-of-two power shots, which can leave him off-balance.

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Head-to-Head Matchup Analysis

Volkanovski’s championship pedigree—built on elite striking defense and relentless cardio—clashes with Lopes’ finishing violence and grappling mastery. The champion must avoid desperation brawls early and stifle takedowns to keep the fight standing. The challenger, conversely, needs to pressure, land heavy combos to compromise Volkanovski’s defense, then capitalize on any sloppy sprawls to implement ground-and-pound or submissions. This fight is a classic striker-vs-grappler puzzle: will Volkanovski’s accuracy and iron chin outlast Lopes’ brute force, or will Lopes’ power and BJJ evolution dethrone “The Great”?

Odds & Betting Analysis

Current Betting Lines

As of January 19, 2026, the favorite and underdog lines are as follows:

Alexander Volkanovski (–162 to –155 across books)
• Caesars: –160
• FanDuel: –164
• BetMGM: –170
• BetRivers: –157
• DraftKings: –162
• Bovada: –155
• BetOnline.ag: –155

Diego Lopes (+125 to +136 across books)
• Caesars: +125
• FanDuel: +128
• BetMGM: +130
• BetRivers: +125
• DraftKings: +136
• Bovada: +133
• BetOnline.ag: +135

Volkanovski is a solid favorite—odds cluster around –160—while Lopes sits in underdog territory, with the juiciest line at +136 on DraftKings.

Best Value:

• Betting the champion? Bovada and BetOnline.ag offer the strongest line at –155.
• Betting the challenger? DraftKings leads with +136.

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Line Movement & Market Trends

• At Caesars, Volkanovski opened at –175 on January 9 and has drifted to –160. This 15-point shift suggests high-volume wagering on the champion, prompting sportsbooks to shorten his number.
• Conversely, Lopes moved from +135 to +125 at Caesars in the same period—underdog value has eroded as bettors back the challenger.
• On DraftKings, Lopes ticked from +140 on January 8 to +136 today, a modest 4-point shift, while Volkanovski slipped from –166 to –162.
• Overall, the market is consolidating around a –160 vs. +130 spread, indicating confidence in Volkanovski but respect for Lopes’ finishing instincts.

No extreme swings have occurred—lines have tightened gradually rather than spiked, reflecting balanced action rather than late sharp money.

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Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you risk $1,000 on each fighter at the best available lines, your returns would be:

• Volkanovski at –155 (Bovada/BetOnline.ag):
  • Profit ~ $646
  • Total return ~ $1,646

• Lopes at +136 (DraftKings):
  • Profit ~ $1,360
  • Total return ~ $2,360

Implied Probability:

• Volkanovski’s current odds imply he wins roughly 61% of the time.
• Lopes’ underdog line sits near a 43% win chance.

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Betting Takeaway

Volkanovski commands respect as champion—his reach, accuracy, and takedown defense justify the favorite status. Yet Lopes’ combination of finishing power, grappling prowess, and improved striking make him one of the most dangerous underdogs in recent UFC history. If you believe the champion’s experience and cardio carry him through five rounds, locking in –155 is your play. If you buy into the rematch narrative—that Lopes learns from his first loss and leverages size and submissions—+136 on the Brazilian offers outstanding value.