Neil Magny vs Yaroslav Amosov Odds & AI Pick | UFC Betting

Neil Magny vs Yaroslav Amosov Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

Get ready for an intriguing Welterweight showdown when veteran Neil Magny takes on rising prospect Yaroslav Amosov on Sunday, December 14, 2025, at the state-of-the-art UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This preliminary-card bout is slated to kick off early on the West Coast broadcast, with fight time expected around 4:00 PM PT (7:00 PM ET). Though Magny has shared the cage hundreds of times throughout his 13-year UFC tenure, Amosov will be making his own highly anticipated UFC debut just 12 days after pinning down his official promotional paperwork.

Betting Odds & Fighter Roles

• Favorite: Yaroslav Amosov (–325, BetOnline.ag)
• Underdog: Neil Magny (+275, BetOnline.ag)

Oddsmakers are leaning heavily on the unbeaten welterweight prospect from Ukraine, pricing Amosov as a sizable favorite despite his zero-in-promotion record (0-0-0). Meanwhile, 38-year-old Magny, with a staggering 31-14-0 pro ledger and 13 years of Octagon experience, enters as a classic underdog. At +275, Magny offers significant value to bettors confident in veteran savvy overcoming raw talent.

Why This Matchup Matters

• Experience vs. Upside: Magny’s long journey from The Ultimate Fighter standout to gatekeeper of the division has forced him to adapt across three weight classes and 45 UFC contests. He brings a well-rounded arsenal — 47% striking accuracy, 52% strike defense, and 40% takedown success — into a fight where composure will be key.
• Unrealized Potential: Amosov is something of an enigma in the UFC world, boasting an undefeated pro record outside the Octagon and touted for elite wrestling pedigree. At 0-0 in UFC official stats, he possesses explosive grappling and underrated power. His transition to the Octagon spotlight, however, remains untested under the bright lights in Las Vegas.

Key Storylines to Watch

• Magny’s Durability: Despite four stoppage losses in his last five outings, "The Vibrator" has shown an iron chin and gas tank capable of weathering storms. If he can survive the early onslaught, his late-round grappling might tilt the scales.
• Amosov’s Adaptation: Will Amosov’s championship-level wrestling and cardio translate seamlessly to UFC rules? His debut pace and control will reveal whether he belongs among the division’s rising elite.

As fight night approaches, UFC fans and bettors will be poring over every training camp update and sparring reel. With Amosov firmly planted as the betting favorite and Magny primed to shock the masses, this Welterweight tilt promises fireworks from bell to bell. Stay tuned for our detailed tactics breakdown, prop-bet analysis, and live odds movements as Neil Magny vs Yaroslav Amosov headlines the early action on December 14.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Neil Magny vs Yaroslav Amosov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Royval vs Kape can be found on the Royval vs Kape event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Yaroslav Amosov Profile

Age: 32
Country: Ukraine
Fighting Style: Greco-Roman wrestling, Sambo, ground-and-pound

Record: 0–0–0 (UFC) | 27–0–0 (Bellator & regional)

Recent Form

Although Amosov’s 0–0 UFC ledger belies his true experience, his last five outings outside the Octagon showcase an elite-level grappler with iron-clad control:

• Bellator 292 (Oct. 2023): Win by unanimous decision vs. Logan Storley
• Bellator 281 (May 2023): Win by submission (rear-naked choke) vs. Aaron Pico
• Bellator 274 (Nov. 2022): Win by unanimous decision vs. Douglas Lima
• Bellator 265 (Aug. 2022): Win by rear-naked choke vs. Paul Daley
• Bellator 259 (May 2022): Win by unanimous decision vs. Doug Usher

Amosov has finished two of his last five opponents and controlled the pace in every outing, showcasing world-class conditioning and relentless pressure.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Elite Takedown Accuracy & Volume: Consistently averages over 60% takedown success in Bellator; transition to UFC rules should only sharpen his wrestling edge.
• Superior Cardio & Pace: Never wilted after three or more rounds; high‐octane wrestling keeps opponents on their heels.
• Ground Control & Submission Threat: Ten submission victories in 27 fights, with a knack for isolating arms and necks.

Weaknesses

• Limited Striking Output: Has relied primarily on wrestling; striking accuracy hovers around 40% in open-source footage, which veteran strikers can exploit.
• Octagon Debut Variance: Unproven under UFC judging criteria and in a hostile Vegas environment—mental adjustment will be key.

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Neil Magny Profile

Age: 38
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Well-rounded muay thai and wrestling base, high‐volume striker

Record: 31–14–0 (UFC + regional)

Recent Form

Magny has alternated between triumph and setback over his last five fights, demonstrating both flash finishes and costly lapses:

• UFC Fight Night, Sep. 2025: Win via submission (arm-triangle choke) over Jake Matthews – R3, 3:08
• UFC Fight Night, Aug. 2025: Win via KO/TKO over Elizeu dos Santos – R2, 4:39
• UFC 295, Nov. 2024: Loss via KO/TKO to Carlos Prates – R1, 4:50
• UFC 291, Aug. 2024: Loss via KO/TKO to Michael Morales – R1, 4:39
• UFC 283, Jan. 2024: Win via KO/TKO over Mike Malott – R3, 4:45

Magny is 3–2 in his last five, with two stoppage wins showcasing heavy hands and two stoppage losses revealing vulnerability to power punchers early in fights.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Striking Volume & Accuracy: Lands 47% of significant strikes, uses range and volume to wear opponents down.
• Takedown Defense & Wrestling Defense: 55% takedown defense rate frustrates wrestlers and opens up counter-striking lanes.
• Experience & Durability: 45 UFC bouts under his belt, accustomed to five-round pacing and high-pressure environments.

Weaknesses

• Susceptibility to Power Punches: Four of his last five fights ended via KO/TKO; early aggression often leaves him open to big shots.
• Finishing Rate in Early Rounds: Zero first-round finishes in UFC career suggests slow starts; opponents can capitalize before he settles in.
• Declining Age Factor: At 38, recovery between fights and cardio depth could lag behind a younger, relentless wrestler like Amosov.

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In this clash of seasoned veteran versus undefeated grappling phenom, Amosov’s wrestling pedigree collides with Magny’s experience and striking diversity. The balance of power, pace, and positional control will determine whose strengths prevail on fight night.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Yaroslav Amosov: –325 (BetOnline.ag)
• Neil Magny: +275 (BetOnline.ag)

Oddsmakers have installed Amosov as the clear favorite, pricing him at –325. That means you must risk $325 to win $100 on the undefeated Ukrainian grappler. By contrast, Magny checks in as the underdog at +275, offering $275 profit for every $100 wagered on the UFC veteran.

At these lines:

• A $1,000 bet on Amosov would return approximately $1,308 (your $1,000 stake plus ~$308 profit).
• A $1,000 bet on Magny would return approximately $3,750 (your $1,000 stake plus $2,750 profit).

Line Movement Analysis

Examining the odds history from BetOnline.ag reveals notable shifts in both fighters’ prices over the past 24 hours:

• Amosov opened around –380 on December 5, then eased to –325 by December 6.
• Magny opened around +315 on December 5, then tightened up to +275 by December 6.

These swings suggest the market is reacting to sharp money on Neil Magny—bettors see value in the underdog’s proven UFC experience. A move from +315 to +275 is significant in the welterweight market, indicating confidence that “The Vibrator” can weather early storm and perhaps exploit Amosov’s potential striking deficiencies. Conversely, Amosov’s price softening from –380 to –325 reflects public money balancing the books as well as some skepticism about how quickly he’ll adapt to UFC rules and the high-octane environment of Las Vegas fight night.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

For both line value and reliability, BetOnline.ag remains our top pick. Their odds have shown competitive movement, and they consistently offer early opening lines on UFC events. If you’re shopping for props or live-betting opportunities later in the card, their platform tends to post swift adjustments that mirror sharp money trends.

Payouts & Implied Probabilities

While nobody wants the math lesson, here’s what the current lines imply for your $1,000 bet:

• Amosov (–325): Roughly 76% implied chance to win. A conservative favorite, but at –325, the return is modest—about $1,308 total.
• Magny (+275): Roughly 27% implied chance to win. As a classic underdog, the upside is huge—a $3,750 total return on a $1,000 stake.

Key Takeaways

• Underdog Value: Magny’s line tightening signals sharp belief in his experience edge.
• Favorite Caution: Amosov remains the betting favorite, but his price has sharpened, lowering profit margin.
• Market Sentiment: Line movement reflects respect for Magny’s chokes and late‐round toughness against a debuting powerhouse wrestler.

Monitor BetOnline.ag for any further line shifts as weigh‐ins and media day insights roll out. With sizeable payouts on the underdog and a hefty favorite price that still commands respect, bettors have clear choices based on risk tolerance and belief in veteran savvy vs. fresh championship hunger.