UFC 324: Silva vs Namajunas Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas fight breakdown

Event: UFC 324 – Preliminary Card
Date & Time: Saturday, January 24, 2026 (Prelims begin at 8 pm ET)
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Introduction

The women’s flyweight division heats up on the UFC 324 Preliminary Card when surging contender Natalia Silva (#2 in the division) squares off against former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas (#6) on January 24, 2026. Hosted at the world-renowned T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, this matchup kicks off the broadcast and promises fireworks as an explosive striker meets one of the sport’s slickest grapplers.

Natalia Silva enters as a heavy betting favorite, with the lines sitting around –430 to –500 across major sportsbooks. The 28-year-old Brazilian sensation has steamrolled her way through opponents on her meteoric rise, compiling a 19-5-1 record inside the Octagon and showcasing elite takedown defense (92%) and diverse finishing ability (5 KOs, 7 submissions). Silva’s precise striking (46% accuracy) and suffocating ground control make her a nightmare for opponents to navigate. After a unanimous decision win over former champion Alexa Grasso in May 2025, Silva appears locked in and ready to prove she belongs in title contention.

On the opposite end, Rose Namajunas is pegged as a solid underdog at roughly +330 across BetRivers, Caesars, and other leading books. The 33-year-old American veteran boasts a 15-7 record, including six submission victories and five first-round finishes. Known for her championship pedigree, Namajunas has shared the Octagon with the division’s best—Erin Blanchfield, Manon Fiorot, Amanda Ribas—and holds wins over Tracy Cortez and Miranda Maverick via unanimous decision. While her takedown defense (63%) and striking defense (64%) have kept her competitive, Namajunas will need to mix in her crafty striking combinations and hunt for scrambles if she hopes to derail Silva’s momentum.

Why This Fight Matters

• Styles Clash: Silva’s relentless wrestling base and ground-and-pound versus Namajunas’s elusive movement and submission savvy.
• Ranking Implications: A victory for Silva cements her position as the next title challenger; a win for Namajunas re-establishes her as an elite flyweight contender.
• Experience vs. Upside: Namajunas brings veteran savvy and a championship résumé; Silva offers youth, speed, and a well-rounded arsenal that has improved with every fight.

As the first fight fans will see on ESPN+ in the T-Mobile Arena, this contest sets the tone for the night. Will Natalia Silva’s grappling dominance and booming power validate her status as the division’s frontrunner, or can Rose Namajunas spring the upset and prove that heart and championship experience still reign supreme in the Octagon? The answers begin on January 24, and the fight world will be watching every minute.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Natalia Silva Profile

Age: 28
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Taekwondo base with rapidly improving MMA grappling and ground-and-pound

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs. Alexa Grasso (Decision – Unanimous) – May 2025
• Win vs. Jessica Andrade (Decision – Unanimous) – Sep. 2024
• Win vs. Viviane Araujo (Decision – Unanimous) – Feb. 2024
• Win vs. Andrea Lee (Decision – Unanimous) – Aug. 2023
• Win vs. Victoria Leonardo (KO/TKO Round 1) – May 2023

Natalia Silva has rattled off five straight victories—all showcasing her cardio, pressure, and ability to impose her game plan. She remains unbeaten since joining the UFC in June 2022, quickly climbing to the #2 women’s flyweight spot.

Strengths

• Takedown Defence (92%): Almost impossible to wrestle down, Silva stuffs opponents’ biggest weapon.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (46%): Lands nearly half of her significant strikes, combining volume with precision.
• Stamina & Fight IQ: Rarely fades in deep waters; paces her attacks intelligently across three rounds.
• Well-Rounded Finishing: Five KOs and seven submissions illustrate her evolution from striker to complete mixed martial artist.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (25%): Prefers striking exchanges; must work harder if she wants to dominate grappling transitions.
• Early Finishes: Only one first-round stoppage—opponents that weather her early storm can drag her into decision territory.
• Average Leg Reach (36"): Slight reach disadvantage against longer strikers may force her to fight at close quarters.

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Rose Namajunas Profile

Age: 33
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Versatile MMA—combines slick striking setups with high-level jiu-jitsu submissions

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs. Miranda Maverick (Decision – Unanimous) – Jun. 2025
• Loss vs. Erin Blanchfield (Decision – Unanimous) – Nov. 2024
• Win vs. Tracy Cortez (Decision – Unanimous) – Jul. 2024
• Win vs. Amanda Ribas (Decision – Unanimous) – Mar. 2024
• Loss vs. Manon Fiorot (Decision – Unanimous) – Sep. 2023

“Thug” Rose has alternated wins and losses but remains a perennial threat. Her six UFC submission victories and deep championship résumé make her a dangerous foe for anyone in the flyweight ranks.

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (51%): More than half of her takedowns land successfully—she can choose when to initiate grappling.
• Submission Prowess (6 Submissions): Always hunting chokes and armbars; top-tier jiu-jitsu on display whenever the fight hits the mat.
• Fight Experience: Two-time strawweight champion with ten years in the UFC octagon; veteran savvy in high-pressure moments.
• Significant Strike Defense (64%): Shrinks the target, slips shots, and counters off her back foot.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (63%): Vulnerable if Silva can chain takedown attempts; must scramble or threaten submissions to keep it standing.
• Striking Output (42% Accuracy): Lower connect rate against top-level strikers; can get outpaced in a volume striking battle.
• Age & Durability: At 33, fading is a concern—must avoid long, drawn-out grappling scrambles that sap energy.

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How Styles Clash

• Grappling vs. Grappling: Silva’s iron-clad takedown defense meets Namajunas’s slick wrestling entries and submission traps.
• Striking Efficiency: Silva’s precision volume striking challenges Rose’s counter-striking and elusive footwork.
• Cardio & Durability: Silva’s youth and relentless pace could test Namajunas’s durability in deep waters, while Namajunas’s veteran conditioning can neutralize Silva’s late-round surge.

This stylistic battle—powerful, precise striker versus crafty, submission-hungry veteran—will determine who takes a monumental step toward title contention and who must regroup for another climb up the rankings.

Betting Odds & History

Current Betting Odds

• Natalia Silva (Favorite): Ranging from –435 (BetRivers) to –410 (DraftKings)
• Rose Namajunas (Underdog): Ranging from +310 (FanDuel) to +350 (BetOnline.ag)

Silva’s status as a heavy favorite is clear: consensus lines sit around –430 to –440, making her the most backed fighter on the board. Namajunas, by contrast, is priced between +310 and +350, earning underdog respect only at select books.

Best Value

• If you believe Namajunas can pull the upset, BetOnline.ag’s +350 offers the juiciest payout for a $1,000 wager.
• For Silva backers, DraftKings’ –410 line maximizes your return on the favorite.

Line Movement & Swings

Natalia Silva

• Early December: Opened near –350 at BetOnline.ag
• Late December: Drifted to –360 / –400 as bettors adjusted
• New Year: Spiked as short as –460 at some books (BetMGM, Bovada)
• Mid-January: Settled back around –430 to –440

Silva’s line peaked in favor of the house (–460), then eased back as public money balanced her odds.

Rose Namajunas

• Early December: Launched as +285 on Caesars, +300 on BetMGM
• Late December: Drifted out to +365 on New Year’s Day (BetOnline.ag)
• Mid-January: Pulled in to a stable +330 to +350 range

Namajunas experienced the biggest swing: from a mid-two-hundreds underdog to a mid-three-hundreds line, signaling mixed confidence from bettors and sharp action.

Payout & Implied Probabilities

Without delving into formulae, here’s what a $1,000 bet would yield at today’s top lines:

• Bet $1,000 on Silva at –410 (DraftKings):
  Total return ≈ $1,244 (profit ≈ $244)
  Implied win chance ≈ 81%

• Bet $1,000 on Namajunas at +350 (BetOnline.ag):
  Total return ≈ $4,500 (profit ≈ $3,500)
  Implied win chance ≈ 22%

Summary & Best Book

• Underdog Value: Rose’s best price is +350 at BetOnline.ag—lock it in if you see the veteran’s experience tipping the scales.
• Favorite Efficiency: Silva’s softest line is –410 at DraftKings; a safer but slimmer return.
• Line Trends: Silva’s odds peaked as short as –460 before easing back, while Namajunas bounced between +285 and +365, now finding equilibrium at +330–+350.

Whether you back the unstoppable trajectory of Natalia Silva or bank on Rose Namajunas’s veteran savvy, knowing where the market has moved—and where the best lines sit—will be your greatest edge as you place your wager on UFC 324’s opening prelim.