Holloway vs Oliveira: UFC 326 Odds, Stats & Pick

Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira Fight Analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated lightweight showdown between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira headlines the UFC 326 main card on March 7, 2026, at the legendary T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. As the marquee bout of “Holloway vs Oliveira 2,” this clash pits two dynamic and well-rounded veterans against each other in a rematch that carries significant implications for the 155-pound title picture. The event officially gets underway at 7 p.m. PT, with this pivotal matchup expected to hit the Octagon later in the evening.

This fight marks Holloway’s first appearance in the lightweight division since his dominant run as the undisputed featherweight champion, while Oliveira looks to rebound from his last setback and reestablish himself among the division’s elite. With the stakes sky-high, both men bring contrasting styles and career trajectories into the cage:

• Max Holloway (27-8-0) is the favorite, as he transitions his relentless volume striking and iron chin from featherweight to lightweight. Bookmakers universally list Holloway at around –200, making him roughly a 66 percent favorite.
• Charles Oliveira (36-11-0) enters as the underdog, priced between +150 and +170 across major sportsbooks. Despite the longer odds, Oliveira’s world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and submission record (22 wins by tapout) make him a perpetual threat on the mat.

Event Details

• Date & Time: Saturday, March 7, 2026 – Main card airs at 7 p.m. PT (10 p.m. ET).
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
• Event: UFC 326 – Holloway vs Oliveira 2 (Main Card).

Betting Overview

As fight week nears, the opening lines settled with Holloway as a solid favorite across all major books:

• Bovada: Max Holloway –190 | Charles Oliveira +163
• DraftKings & Caesars: Max Holloway –200 | Charles Oliveira +150 to +154
• FanDuel: Max Holloway –210 | Charles Oliveira +162
• BetMGM: Max Holloway –220 | Charles Oliveira +165

Those seeking the juiciest underdog price can shop around, with BetOnline.ag momentarily peaking Oliveira at +175 and BetRivers at +163. On the flip side, the sharpest favorite line came from BetMGM at –220, reflecting significant action on Holloway’s debut at 155 pounds.

Why This Matchup Matters

For Max Holloway, a win over a perennial lightweight contender like Oliveira would vault him immediately into title contention in a division filled with heavy hitters and submission specialists. His cardio, high-output striking, and takedown defense (83 percent rate) could neutralize Oliveira’s back-and-forth grappling scraps.

Conversely, Charles Oliveira is in search of redemption after falling short in his two most recent title bids. At 36 years old, Oliveira’s submission prowess and improved striking integration remain his greatest assets. An upset victory over Holloway not only boosts his seeding in the lightweight rankings but also cements his legacy as one of MMA’s greatest submission artists.

With both fighters riding high–profile storylines and contrasting skill sets, this introductory section sets the stage for what promises to be a strategic chess match inside the Octagon. In the sections that follow, we’ll dive deeper into each athlete’s recent performances, stylistic breakdowns, and advanced metrics to determine which paths to victory are most likely—and which wagers offer true value as fight night approaches.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Max Holloway Profile

Age: 34
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Muay Thai

Record: 27–8–0
Average Fight Time: 16:23
Significant Strike Accuracy: 48%
Significant Strike Defense: 59%
Takedown Accuracy: 53%
Takedown Defense: 83%

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs. Dustin Poirier (Unanimous Decision, UFC 324)
• Loss vs. Ilia Topuria (KO/TKO, UFC 323)
• Win vs. Justin Gaethje (KO/TKO, UFC 321)
• Win vs. Chan Sung Jung (KO/TKO, UFC 318)
• Win vs. Arnold Allen (Unanimous Decision, UFC 316)

Strengths

• Relentless Pace & Volume: Holloway leads the division in total strikes landed per minute, forcing opponents to fight at an unsustainable pace.
• Cardio & Durability: With an average fight length over 16 minutes, he can maintain high output into championship rounds without noticeable gas.
• Takedown Defense: His 83% takedown defense rate neutralizes wrestlers and limits grapplers from bringing the fight to the mat.
• Experience Against Top Competition: Five consecutive wins over top-10 opponents before his bout with Topuria demonstrate his ability to adjust strategy mid-fight.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Power: Only 2 submission wins and 12 knockouts on a 27-win résumé suggest he sometimes struggles to close out dangerous opponents.
• KO Vulnerability: The loss to Topuria exposed a susceptibility to heavy hitters early in fights—he’s been stopped via strikes twice in his career.
• Strike Accuracy: At 48%, his significant strike accuracy is below division average, indicating he throws high volume but may leave openings when overcommitting.

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Charles Oliveira Profile

Age: 36
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Record: 36–11–0
Average Fight Time: 7:30
Significant Strike Accuracy: 55%
Significant Strike Defense: 49%
Takedown Accuracy: 40%
Takedown Defense: 55%

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs. Mateusz Gamrot (Submission, Round 2 – Arm-Triangle)
• Loss vs. Ilia Topuria (Decision, UFC 323)
• Win vs. Michael Chandler (Unanimous Decision, UFC 320)
• Loss vs. Arman Tsarukyan (Split Decision, UFC 319)
• Win vs. Beneil Dariush (KO/TKO, Round 1 – Strikes)

Strengths

• Elite Grappling & Submissions: Career-high 22 submission victories; once he secures top position or a clinch on the ground, opponents face enormous danger.
• Finishing Instinct: 32 finishes in 36 wins (10 KOs/TKOs, 22 subs) reflect an aggressive approach and ability to capitalize on mistakes.
• Striking Accuracy: At 55%, Oliveira’s significant striking efficiency is above average for lightweight, allowing him to land critical shots early.
• Versatility: Improved wrestling and takedown offense complement his world-class jiu-jitsu, making him a multi-dimensional threat.

Weaknesses

• Durability in Stand-up: A 49% significant strike defense rate reveals he absorbs a high volume of strikes—susceptible to volume strikers who maintain distance.
• Inconsistent Takedown Defense: With a 55% takedown defense, Holloway’s wrestling threat is potent; Oliveira may struggle to keep the fight upright when pressured.
• Cardio Concerns: An average fight time of 7:30 minutes suggests many early finishes, but longer fights could tax his gas tank against a relentless pace.
• Decision Losses: Two of his last five outings went to opponents on the judges’ scorecards, highlighting potential issues in dominating pure striking exchanges.

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Key Dynamics of the Matchup

• Striking vs. Grappling: Holloway will look to control range, outwork Oliveira, and negate takedown attempts. Oliveira must close distance quickly, mix in level changes, and threaten with submissions.
• Pace & Endurance: Holloway’s cardio edge—demonstrated by multiple five-round performances—could overwhelm Oliveira if the Brazilian fails to finish early.
• Value on Each Path to Victory:
  • Holloway by decision or late-round stoppage leverages volume.
  • Oliveira by early submission or KO/TKO inside three rounds, capitalizing on explosive offense.

This in-depth comparison of styles, recent form, and statistical advantages sets the stage for a compelling clash between Holloway’s boxing volume and Oliveira’s submission artistry. As fight night approaches, understanding these dynamics is crucial for bettors and fight fans alike.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest updates, Max Holloway is the clear favorite across all major books, while Charles Oliveira sits firmly in underdog status. Here’s a snapshot of the consensus lines:

• Max Holloway: –190 to –220 (favorite)
• Charles Oliveira: +150 to +170 (underdog)

The average across top sportsbooks gives Holloway roughly –200 and Oliveira about +160. That gap reflects bettors’ confidence in Holloway’s volume striking and championship experience versus Oliveira’s elite submission game.

Line Movement & History

Max Holloway

• Opening Range (Feb. 8): –172 to –183 at Bovada
• Mid-Festival Swing (Feb. 13): Brief dip to –190, then peaks at –195 as sharp money poured in on Holloway’s lightweight debut
• Current Peak (Feb. 23): –220 at BetMGM

Holloway’s line shifted almost 20 cents in the dollar from opening to peak, signaling heavy backing by sharp bettors convinced he can outwork Oliveira over five rounds.

Charles Oliveira

• Opening Range (Feb. 8): +147 to +158 at Bovada
• Spike (Feb. 13): Rapid climb to +163, then +165 as some books trimmed the line into +170 territory
• Current Peak (Feb. 23): +170 at BetOnline.ag

Oliveira’s underdog line has widened by more than +20 cents since open, indicating public reluctance to back his submission-centric style against Holloway’s pace.

Large Swing Alert:

• On February 13, both fighters experienced their largest single-day moves: Holloway from –183 to –190, Oliveira from +158 to +163. This coincided with media reports praising Holloway’s gas tank and concerns over Oliveira’s recent decision losses.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you’re looking to risk $1,000:

• Betting on Max Holloway at –190 (Bovada’s best favorite line):
  • Payout: $1,526 total ($526 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Win Probability: Roughly 66–68%

• Betting on Charles Oliveira at +170 (BetOnline.ag’s best underdog line):
  • Payout: $2,700 total ($1,700 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Win Probability: Roughly 37–39%

These figures demonstrate the trade-off: a smaller return on the favorite versus a larger windfall if the underdog pulls off an upset.

Best Sportsbooks for Value

• Underdog Value: BetOnline.ag (+170) currently offers the highest return on Cullen Oliveira.
• Favorite Value: Bovada’s –190 quote on Holloway is the softest line for those backing the champ-in-waiting at lightweight.

For bettors seeking maximum upside, shopping around for the +170 on Oliveira is crucial. Conversely, those confident in Holloway’s cardio and volume boxing should lock in the –190 price before it drifts closer to –220.

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By tracking these line movements and value spots, you can position your wager for optimal payout. Whether you trust Holloway to dominate with relentless strikes or believe Oliveira’s submission wizardry will prevail, understanding the odds history and where to shop yields smarter bets as fight night approaches.