Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson Fight Odds & AI Pick

Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson Fight Analysis

Fight Details

Event: UFC 324 – Gaethje vs Pimblett
Date & Time: Saturday, January 24, 2026 – Early Preliminary Card begins at 2:00 PM PT (Perez vs Johnson scheduled approximately 2:45 PM PT)
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Odds Overview

• Favorite: Charles Johnson (American odds ranging from –198 to –220 across major books)
• Underdog: Alex Perez (American odds ranging from +152 to +180)

Introduction

The flyweight clash between Alex Perez and Charles Johnson is set to open the early preliminaries at UFC 324 on January 24, 2026, live from the sold-out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. As part of an action‐packed night headlined by Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett, this bout carries significant implications for both fighters inside the ultra-competitive 125-pound division.

Perez (25-10-0) enters his 36th professional outing trailing a narrow path of highs and lows over the past 18 months. The 33-year-old Californian boasts a well-rounded arsenal highlighted by seven submission victories and ten first-round finishes. His average fight time of 7:03 underlines his aggressive, front-foot style, though his recent two-fight skid—submissions losses to Muhammad Mokaev and Assu Almabayev—raises questions about his defensive grappling against high-level technicians. On paper, Perez’s 48% takedown accuracy and 75% takedown defense indicate solid wrestling fundamentals, but his tendency to press forward has left him vulnerable to slick counters.

Standing across the Octagon, Johnson (18-7-0) offers a contrasting blueprint. Hailing from Topeka, Kansas, the 34-year-old holds a three-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over Perez. An explosive finisher with eight knockouts on his résumé—as well as three submissions—Johnson has rattled off four wins in five outings since a decision loss to Ramazan Temirov in March 2025. His 57% significant strike defense and 50% striking accuracy allow him to land meaningful blows while evading feeble counters. The bookmakers have made Johnson the clear favorite at roughly –205 to –220, reflecting his recent KO/TKO wins and physical advantages.

Conversely, Perez is the underdog at approximately +165 to +180. Those looking for value may point to Perez’s submission pedigree and first‐round finishing rate—ten of his 25 wins have come before the second bell. Should he manage to drag this contest into deep waters, his durability (he’s never been stopped by strikes) and jiu-jitsu acumen could turn the tide against Johnson’s power games.

This clash is more than a statistical exercise: the winner is likely to break into the top 10 of the UFC’s crowded flyweight rankings, while the loser could be forced into a must-win situation later in 2026. With styles that contrast striking aggression and well-timed wrestling, Perez vs. Johnson promises fireworks early and sets the stage for a pivotal night in Las Vegas. Dive into our full breakdown for a round-by-round look at how this fight could unfold and where the best betting opportunities lie.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Alex Perez

Background & Style

• Age: 33
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestling–based all-around MMA

A seasoned veteran of 35 UFC-level contests, Alex Perez debuted in August 2017 and quickly built a reputation for relentless forward pressure and slick grappling transitions. Standing 66″ tall with a 65.5″ reach, the Hanford, California native blends wrestling entries with opportunistic submission chains. His ten first-round finishes speak to his aggressive approach—he looks to close distance, secure clinches or takedowns, and force the pace from the opening bell.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Nov. 22, 2025: Loss to Assu Almabayev (Submission R3)
2. Jun. 15, 2024: Loss to Tatsuro Taira (KO/TKO R2)
3. Apr. 27, 2024: Win over Matheus Nicolau (KO/TKO R2)
4. Mar. 2, 2024: Loss to Muhammad Mokaev (Decision – Unanimous)
5. Jul. 30, 2022: Loss to Alexandre Pantoja (Submission R1)

Perez has gone 1-4 in his last five outings. His lone victory—a second-round TKO of Matheus Nicolau—underscores his power‐wrestling upside, but three submission defeats and a stoppage loss reveal vulnerability when he meets elite grapplers or explosive strikers.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Takedown Offense: 48% accuracy on takedown attempts gives him reliable entry into grappling exchanges.
• Takedown Defense: Impressive 75% defense rate makes him tough to keep grounded.
• Finishing Instinct: Seven career submissions and six knockouts highlight his ability to force early endings.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Efficiency: 46% significant strike accuracy lags behind the division average; he can be out‐landed by precise strikers.
• Defensive Gaps Under Pressure: KO loss to Taira questions his ability to weather heavy shots while shooting takedowns.
• Grappling Against Elites: Multiple submission losses suggest difficulty fending off high-level jiu-jitsu specialists.

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Charles Johnson

Background & Style

• Age: 34
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Power‐striking with knockout pedigree

Hailing from Topeka, Kansas, Charles Johnson entered the UFC in July 2022 and rapidly showcased his one-punch power and crisp boxing. At 69″ tall with a 70″ reach, he leverages length to land straight fists and kicks from range. His style emphasizes lateral movement, counter‐striking, and blitzing inside opportunities to land fight-ending blows.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Aug. 23, 2025: Win over Loneer Kavanagh (KO/TKO R2)
2. Mar. 1, 2025: Loss to Ramazan Temirov (Decision – Unanimous)
3. Oct. 19, 2024: Win over Su Mudaerji (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Jul. 13, 2024: Win over Joshua Van (KO/TKO R3)
5. May 11, 2024: Win over Jake Hadley (Decision – Unanimous)

Johnson enters this bout on a 4-1 run, punctuated by two recent stoppage victories. His lone setback—a decision loss to Temirov—came when he was forced to chase against a high‐output opponent but rebounded by dictating pace and distance.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Striking Accuracy & Defense: 50% accuracy on significant strikes and 57% defense rate keep him efficient and elusive.
• Knockout Power: Eight KO victories signal dangerous finishing ability anytime he lands flush.
• Physical Tools: Superior height and reach allow him to counter‐jab and control range.

Weaknesses:

• Grappling Threat: Just a 21% takedown accuracy means he rarely capitalizes when the fight hits the mat.
• Extended Rounds: Average fight time of 13:17 suggests less urgency in finishing beyond round two.
• Inconsistency Under Pressure: His decision loss exposed difficulty adapting when opponents smother his power game.

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This stylistic contrast—Perez’s wrestling/grappling assault versus Johnson’s length‐driven striking—creates a classic athlete-versus-striker dynamic. Understanding each fighter’s profile, recent results, and statistical footprint will be key to predicting how this pivotal flyweight contest unfolds.

Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of January 13, 2026, the fan consensus firmly backs Charles Johnson as the favorite and Alex Perez as the underdog in this flyweight showdown. Here’s a snapshot of the best available lines:

• Charles Johnson: –195 at BetRivers (also –198 DraftKings, –205 BetOnline.ag, –220 Caesars)
• Alex Perez: +180 at Caesars (also +175 BetOnline.ag, +164 DraftKings, +173 Bovada)

Johnson’s strong favorite status (roughly –200 across the board) reflects his four‐fight winning streak and pronounced height/reach edge. Perez, priced between +155 and +180, offers significant value for bettors seeking an underdog payout.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On:

• Underdog Value: Caesars at +180 is the top line for Perez, yielding the highest return.
• Favorite Value: BetRivers at –195 provides the softest line on Johnson—ideal for a lower‐juice favorite play.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

Tracking the line movement over the past two weeks reveals significant shifts on both sides:

• Charles Johnson:

  • Opened around –170 (BetOnline.ag on Dec. 28)
  • Drifted to –200 by Jan. 9
  • Clipped down to –195 at BetRivers and hovered around –205 at most books by Jan. 13

• Alex Perez:

  • Began at +145 on Dec. 28 (BetOnline.ag)
  • Climbed steadily to +165 on DraftKings by Jan. 9
  • Peaked at +180 at Caesars on Jan. 13

These swings—Johnson moving roughly 50 cents heavier and Perez jumping over 30 cents longer—indicate substantial early support for the underdog, likely driven by bettors hunting value and contextualizing Perez’s finishing upside.

Betting Scenarios: $1,000 Payout & Implied Probability

If you were to wager $1,000 on either fighter today, here’s what to expect:

• Bet $1,000 on Charles Johnson at –195 (BetRivers):

  • Payout: $1,512.82 total return ($512.82 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~66.1%

• Bet $1,000 on Alex Perez at +180 (Caesars):

  • Payout: $2,800 total return ($1,800 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~35.7%

These figures highlight Perez’s appeal as a contrarian play: a successful $1,000 bet nearly triples your money, while Johnson bettors bank a more modest return on a presumed 2-to-1 favorite.

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This odds analysis underscores two key takeaways:

1. Johnson remains the strong favorite across major sportsbooks but is available at slightly better than –200 in select markets.
2. Perez has seen steady line drift in his favor, making +180 his most attractive price for those backing the underdog upset.

Monitor these lines closely in the final days leading into UFC 324; any further movement—especially on the underdog—could signal sharp money or emerging public confidence in Perez’s grappling game.