Krylov vs Bukauskas: UFC 324 Fight Analysis & Betting Odds

Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas Fight Analysis

When and Where

The light heavyweight clash between Nikita Krylov and Modestas Bukauskas is set to kick off on Sunday, January 25, 2026, as part of the Preliminary Card at UFC 324. The action will take place at the world-renowned T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the first preliminary bouts slated to begin at 7:00 PM local time. Fans tuning in from the East Coast can catch the bout at 10:00 PM ET, while West Coast viewers will watch live at 7:00 PM PT.

Betting Odds: Favorite vs. Underdog

Oddsmakers have opened this matchup with Modestas Bukauskas as the clear favorite across major sportsbooks. As of January 12, Bukauskas carries an average line of –180 (implied probability ~64%), making him the moneyline pick for bettors seeking the safer wager. On the other hand, Nikita Krylov enters as the underdog at around +150 (implied probability ~40%), offering a higher payout for risk-tolerant fans who believe the veteran will spring the upset.

• Favorite: Modestas Bukauskas (–180)
• Underdog: Nikita Krylov (+150)

This dynamic sets up an intriguing narrative: Bukauskas, a rising power striker boasting 11 knockouts in 19 career wins, aims to continue his momentum, while Krylov, a seasoned finisher with 28 combined stoppages in 30 victories, looks to defy the odds and reestablish himself among the division’s elite.

Overview of the Fighters

Modestas Bukauskas, 31, from Klaipeda, Lithuania, has surged up the light heavyweight ranks thanks to a devastating right hand and a knack for early finishes. In his last five outings, Bukauskas holds a 4–1 record, featuring emphatic first-round stoppages over Rafael Cerqueira and Paul Craig. His UFC résumé reads 19-6-0, including 8 first-round finishes and a solid 44% significant strike accuracy.

In contrast, Nikita Krylov, 33, hailing from Donetsk, Ukraine (now representing Russia), is a ten-plus year UFC veteran with a 30-11-0 résumé. Krylov’s blend of karate-based striking and opportunistic grappling has yielded 12 knockouts and 16 submissions. Despite back-to-back first-round KO losses to Bogdan Guskov and Dominick Reyes, Krylov remains a formidable threat, especially early in the cage where he has collected 23 first-round finishes.

Stakes and Style Clash

This fight carries significant implications for both men. Bukauskas, riding a four-fight winning streak in the octagon, can vault into the top 15 of the division with a dominant performance. Conversely, Krylov—ranked #13 at light heavyweight—desperately needs a marquee win to halt his skid and keep pace with a rapidly evolving 205 lb landscape.

Stylistically, expect Bukauskas to unleash heavy, powerful leg kicks and thunderous right hands from distance, forcing Krylov to either pressure forward or contest on the mat. Krylov’s path to victory may lie in his submission acumen; if he can close distance, initiate scrambles, and threaten with guillotines or armbars, he has the tools to topple the betting favorite.

As UFC 324’s preliminary card heats up, Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas promises fireworks in Las Vegas. Will Bukauskas justify his favorite tag, or will Krylov shock the world and climb back into contention? Stay locked in for what’s sure to be a thrilling light heavyweight battle.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Modestas Bukauskas Profile

Age: 31
Country: Lithuania (Klaipėda)
Fighting Style: Kickboxing

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Win vs. Paul Craig – KO/TKO (R1, 5:00)
• Win vs. Ion Cutelaba – Split Decision (R3, 5:00)
• Win vs. Rafael Cerqueira – KO/TKO (R1, 2:12)
• Win vs. Marcin Prachnio – Submission (R3, 3:12)
• Loss vs. Vitor Petrino – KO/TKO (R2, 1:03)

Strengths:

• Power Striking: 11 of his 19 career wins come by knockout, with a proven tendency to end fights early (8 first-round finishes).
• Takedown Defense & Offense: An impressive 80% takedown defense neutralizes wrestlers, while a 67% takedown accuracy gives him an unexpected grappling edge.
• Durability Under Fire: Defends 51% of significant strikes, allowing him to withstand an initial volume assault.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Accuracy: Lands just 44% of his significant strikes—below the divisional average—making him vulnerable to more precise strikers.
• Submissions Focused Opponents: Has only 3 submission victories; elite grapplers could exploit ground exchanges.
• Average Fight Pace: His fights average over nine minutes, indicating he can be out-paced by faster starters.

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Nikita Krylov Profile

Age: 33
Country: Russia (born Donetsk, Ukraine)
Fighting Style: Karate & Submission Wrestling

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Loss vs. Bogdan Guskov – KO/TKO (R1, 4:18)
• Loss vs. Dominick Reyes – KO/TKO (R1, 2:24)
• Win vs. Ryan Spann – Submission (R1, 3:38)
• Win vs. Volkan Oezdemir – Unanimous Decision (R3, 5:00)
• Win vs. Alexander Gustafsson – KO/TKO (R1, 1:07)

Strengths:

• Finishing Instinct: 28 of 30 wins by stoppage (12 KO, 16 submissions), including 23 first-round finishes—among the highest in UFC light heavyweight history.
• Striking Precision: Lands 55% of significant strikes, capitalizing on openings with pinpoint accuracy.
• Submission Arsenal: A 38% takedown accuracy paired with high-level guillotine and arm-bar transitions makes him dangerous on the mat.
• Fast Starts: Average fight time of 6:34 reflects his ability to pressure immediately.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: Concedes 55% of opponent’s significant strikes, a vulnerability against heavy hitters.
• Takedown Defense: Only 53% of takedown attempts are thwarted, leaving him susceptible to wrestlers who can grind him down.
• Recent Knockout Losses: Back-to-back first-round KOs raise questions about his chin and game-plan adaptation.

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Head-to-Head Matchup Analysis

This bout presents a classic power striker vs. explosive finisher dynamic. Bukauskas will look to leverage his kickboxing pedigree and reach (76" arm) to keep Krylov at bay, mixing leg kicks and heavy rights. His superior takedown defense (80%) also nullifies early ground threats. Conversely, Krylov’s strategy hinges on closing distance with karate-style feints, timing counters, and hunting submissions if pressured. His 77.5" reach and 44.5" leg reach give him slight advantages in clinch and striking exchanges.

Key Battles:

• Striking Exchanges: Will Bukauskas' power and volume disrupt Krylov’s rhythm, or can Krylov’s high accuracy and speed overwhelm the favorite?
• Grappling Scenarios: If Krylov can secure takedowns (38% accuracy), can he exploit the newcomer’s limited jiu-jitsu experience?
• Early Finish Potential: Both fighters possess first-round knockout history; a single mistake could end the contest in moments.

As a result, this matchup tests Bukauskas’ striking pedigree against Krylov’s multifaceted finishing skillset, making for a compelling stylistic clash on the UFC 324 prelims.

Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As of January 12, Modestas Bukauskas is the clear favorite in this light heavyweight showdown, carrying an average moneyline of –180 across most major books. His challenger, Nikita Krylov, sits on the other side of the line as the underdog at roughly +150. Here’s a quick look at the top lines:

• Favorite (Bukauskas): –180 (Caesars, BetMGM, DraftKings, Bovada, FanDuel)
• Underdog (Krylov): +150 (Caesars), +155 (BetRivers)

If you’re shopping for the best price, BetOnline.ag currently offers Bukauskas at –150, maximizing return if he wins, while BetRivers features Krylov at +155, the most generous underdog payout available.

Line Movement Trends

Early betting in late December had Bukauskas posted as high as –210 on Caesars and BetMGM, reflecting strong interest in his recent knockout run. Through the first two weeks of January, his line has softened to –180, indicating that money is slowly creeping onto Krylov. On BetOnline.ag, the swing is most dramatic: Bukauskas opened around –195, dipped as light as –155, and now sits at –150. This drift suggests sharp action and public bettors finding value backing Krylov’s experience over Bukauskas’s surge.

Krylov’s underdog line tells a similar story in reverse. He briefly dipped to +135 on DraftKings after early January skirmishes but has rebounded to +155 at BetRivers and +153 at Bovada, meaning sportsbooks are dangling the bigger payout to attract balanced action on both sides.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances

Let’s say you have $1,000 to stake:

• A $1,000 bet on Modestas Bukauskas at –180 returns about $1,556 (your original $1,000 plus approximately $556 profit).
• A $1,000 bet on Nikita Krylov at +150 returns $2,500 (your original $1,000 plus $1,500 profit).

Based on the current lines, the implied probability is roughly 64% for Bukauskas and 40% for Krylov—meaning the books view the Lithuanian striker as the more likely victor but still respect Krylov’s threat.

Key Takeaways for Bettors

• Favorite Play: If you lean toward Bukauskas, shop BetOnline.ag for the softest favorite line (–150).
• Value Play: If you believe Krylov’s veteran savvy will prevail, snag his line at BetRivers (+155) or Bovada (+153) for the highest payout.
• Line Movement Insight: Early heavy money on Bukauskas has ebbed, opening a window for late value on Krylov. Should you detect more edge on the underdog side, now is the time to strike before the line tightens further.

With these odds, both fighters present compelling betting narratives: the rising power puncher vs. the seasoned finisher. Choose your angle, lock in the best price, and enjoy an electrifying clash at UFC 324.