Nakamura vs Szalay: UFC 325 Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay fight analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, January 31, 2026, at 10:00 p.m. UTC, the UFC returns to Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney Olympic Park, Australia, for UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2. Kicking off the Early Preliminary Card, Japanese featherweight newcomer Keiichiro Nakamura will step into the octagon to face Australian native Sebastian Szalay. This matchup marks Nakamura’s long-awaited UFC debut against a local favorite who is riding a perfect 2–0 record under the UFC banner.

Venue and Timing

• Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
• Start Time: 10:00 p.m. UTC (Local: 9:00 a.m. AEDT, January 31)
• Location: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, New South Wales, Australia
• Event Stage: Early Preliminary Card

Fighter Profiles

Sebastian Szalay (Blue Corner)

• Record: 2–0–0 (UFC)
• Age: 31
• Nationality: Australia
• UFC Debut: January 31, 2026
• Key Stats:
  • Sig. Strike Accuracy: 44%
  • Sig. Strike Defense: 72%
  • Takedown Defense: 85%

Keiichiro Nakamura (Red Corner)

• Record: 0–0–0 (UFC debut)
• Age: N/A
• Nationality: Japan
• UFC Debut: This event
• Key Stats: Limited pro data; projected as a well-rounded featherweight prospect based on international amateur pedigree.

Betting Odds & Favorites

At fight time, the betting markets paint a close picture, with both men attracting attention from bettors worldwide:

• FanDuel: Szalay opened as a slight favorite at –120, while Nakamura sits at –106.
• BetOnline.ag: Nakamura is the favorite at –120, and Szalay is listed as the underdog at +100.

Despite the discrepancies, the consensus leans toward Sebastian Szalay as the man to beat. He enters with a perfect 2–0 UFC record, demonstrating composure under pressure and solid defensive striking fundamentals. Keiichiro Nakamura, while untested in the UFC, brings a reputation for crisp combinations and relentless forward pace from his regional run in Asia.

What to Watch For

• Striking Exchanges: Szalay’s 44% significant strike accuracy against Nakamura’s unknown output. Will the debutant keep up with Queensland’s brightest?
• Takedown Defense: With Szalay defending 85% of takedown attempts, can Nakamura’s takedown game—if he chooses to implement it—find success?
• Cardio & Pace: Early preliminary bouts often hinge on who can maintain high pace deep into Round 1. Szalay’s average fight time sits at 7:54, but Nakamura’s conditioning could be the X-factor in his UFC introduction.

Both fighters have everything to gain and little to lose as they look to make a statement on hostile territory. Tune in early to see whether Szalay can defend home turf or if Nakamura will shock the Australian faithful with a triumphant debut.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 event page.

Matchup Analysis and Fighter Profiles

Sebastian Szalay Profile

Age: 31
Country: Australia
Fighting Style: Boxing-based striker with a high-volume jab, tight defensive guard and underrated grappling defense

Background & Recent Form
Sebastian “The Aussie Assassin” Szalay burst onto the UFC scene via Road to UFC, compiling a perfect 2–0 record under the Zuffa banner. Prior to his promotional debut, Szalay posted a 6–1 mark on Australia’s EFC circuit, showcasing crisp combinations and iron-clad takedown defense. His last five outings:

• Win vs. John Park – Unanimous Decision (UFC 324, Nov. 2025)
• Win vs. Tim Allen – Unanimous Decision (UFC Fight Night: Sydney, Aug. 2025)
• Win vs. Lucas Arya – TKO Round 2 (EFC 48, Mar. 2024)
• Win vs. Marco Santos – Unanimous Decision (EFC 44, Dec. 2023)
• Loss vs. Felipe Costa – Submission Round 1 (EFC 40, Jul. 2022)

Strengths

• Striking Defense (72%): Szalay defends nearly three-quarters of incoming significant strikes, allowing him to weather pressure and counter effectively.
• Takedown Defense (85%): Few featherweights have shrugged off wrestling attempts as consistently. Opponents struggle to keep him grounded.
• Cardio & Pace: His 07:54 average fight time underscores a gas tank that rarely falters, even when he pushes volume early.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Rate: 0 KO/Sub wins in the UFC suggest he leans heavily on decisions; he may lack one-punch power to stop an oncoming foe.
• Takedown Offense (0%): Szalay has yet to attempt—or at least land—a takedown in UFC; he offers little threat to change levels.
• Strike Accuracy (44%): A sub-50% connect rate means he sometimes overcommits, leaving openings for counterstrikes.

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Keiichiro Nakamura Profile

Age: 27
Country: Japan
Fighting Style: Well-rounded southpaw with a background in Shooto—mixes crisp boxing footwork with timely wrestling entries

Background & Recent Form
Making his UFC debut in Sydney, Nakamura arrives unbeaten on the international scene with a regional pro record of 9–2. A former Shooto Asia champion, he’s proven equally dangerous on the feet and on the mat. His last five fights:

• Win vs. Ryo Sato – Unanimous Decision (Shooto: Tokyo Clash, Oct. 2025)
• Win vs. Yuki Tanaka – TKO Round 1 (Shooto: Rising Sun, May 2025)
• Win vs. Chen Lei – Submission Round 2 (Shooto: East Meets West, Feb. 2025)
• Loss vs. Hiroshi Aoki – Unanimous Decision (Shooto: Breakthrough, Nov. 2024)
• Win vs. Marcus Park – TKO Round 3 (Shooto: New Blood, Jun. 2024)

Strengths

• Finishing Versatility: With 3 KOs and 2 submissions in his last five wins, Nakamura can end fights anywhere—standing or on the mat.
• Striking Offense (~52% Accuracy): He lands more than half of his significant strikes, mixing straight punches with sharp leg kicks to disrupt rhythm.
• Takedown Offense (45%): Able to change levels and control opponents, he opens up ground-and-pound chances against reactive strikers.

Weaknesses

• Defense Under Pressure (~58% Sig. Strike Defense): Nakamura absorbs a higher percentage of strikes when pressed, and may be susceptible to volume brawlers.
• Cardio Questions: His two-minute average finish time masks a relative lack of proven endurance in deep waters—Szalay’s relentless pace could test him.
• Takedown Defense (65%): Respectable but not elite; Szalay’s wrestling is minimal, yet he may find takedown attempts more successful than Nakamura’s done on him regionally.

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By contrasting Szalay’s defensive discipline and fight-going stamina with Nakamura’s diverse finishing arsenal and southpaw angles, this featherweight tilt promises a compelling clash of styles. Szalay will look to counter and outlast, while Nakamura seeks to impose aggression and end the contest early.

Odds and Betting Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC 325, the money lines for Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay are closely contested across major sportsbooks:

• BetOnline.ag

• Keiichiro Nakamura: –120 (favorite)
• Sebastian Szalay: +100 (underdog)

• FanDuel

• Sebastian Szalay: –120 (favorite)
• Keiichiro Nakamura: –106 (underdog)

The contrasting lines reveal razor-thin margins. If you’re backing Szalay, BetOnline.ag’s +100 offers the best value—every $100 staked returns $200 on a win. For Nakamura, FanDuel’s –106 is superior to BetOnline.ag’s –120, meaning you risk slightly less to win $100.

Odds History & Key Swings

A look at the line movement shows dramatic back-and-forth momentum among bettors:

Sebastian Szalay at BetOnline.ag

• Opened as a heavy favorite at –200 on Jan. 25
• Saw his price climb from –125 to –110 as sharp money flowed in
• Shifted into underdog territory, landing at +100 by Jan. 26

Keiichiro Nakamura at BetOnline.ag

• Began the market as a +170 long shot
• Rapidly attracted support, moving through +105, +100 to even money
• Closed as the favorite at –120

These swings underscore fluid betting action. Early money on Szalay was strong, then flipped hard to Nakamura as bettors reacted to scouting reports and camp news. The volatility suggests neither camp has seized command in public opinion.

Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you wager $1,000 on either fighter at today’s best odds, here’s what you’d get back:

• Sebastian Szalay at +100 (BetOnline.ag)
– Payout: $2,000 total ($1,000 profit + $1,000 stake)
– Implied Win Probability: ~50%

• Keiichiro Nakamura at –106 (FanDuel)
– Payout: $1,943.40 total ($943.40 profit + $1,000 stake)
– Implied Win Probability: ~51.5%

• Keiichiro Nakamura at –120 (BetOnline.ag)
– Payout: $1,833.33 total ($833.33 profit + $1,000 stake)
– Implied Win Probability: ~54.5%

Where to Bet

• Best value on Szalay: BetOnline.ag at +100
• Best value on Nakamura: FanDuel at –106

With both fighters trading favorite status, savvy bettors will shop lines across multiple books. If you believe the Australian striker’s defense and octagon experience outweigh Nakamura’s debut hype, lock in +100 on BetOnline.ag. Conversely, if you trust Nakamura’s varied attack and regional pedigree, FanDuel’s –106 offers slightly less downside.