Turcios vs Smotherman Fight Analysis, Odds & AI Pick

Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman fight analysis

Introduction

The bantamweight clash between Ricky Turcios and Cameron Smotherman is set to kick off the preliminary portion of UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, 2026, at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Slated for 10:00 PM ET on the early prelims card, this three-round affair pits two gritty Houston-born strikers against one another in what promises to be a high-octane, tactically nuanced battle. Both athletes bring contrasting styles, career trajectories and momentum into the Octagon, making this bout a must-watch for fans and bettors alike.

Turcios (13-5-0) enters this fight on the heels of a hard-fought split decision loss to Benardo Sopaj in January 2025. The 31-year-old veteran is known for his freestyle wrestling background blended with measured striking, boasting a 40% significant strike accuracy and respectable 20% takedown success rate. Despite a recent two-fight skid, Turcios remains dangerous—his grappling credentials and experience dating back to a 2017 UFC debut make him a live dog in any contest.

Smotherman (12-6-0), the 27-year-old rising prospect, will be looking to rebound from back-to-back unanimous decision defeats to Simon and Sidey after earning his first UFC win over Jake Hadley in October 2024. With an aggressive striking approach, Smotherman lands 37% of his significant strikes while defending 59% of incoming shots. His zero-percent takedown rate underscores a pure stand-up focus—expect the former Houston standout to push pace and leverage power as he looks to secure a pivotal win on the Las Vegas stage.

Event Details at a Glance

• Date & Time: Saturday, January 24, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET (Early Preliminary Card)
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena · Las Vegas, Nevada
• Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lb)
• Rounds: 3 × 5 minutes

Betting Odds Snapshot

• Favorite: Cameron Smotherman (approximately –200 across major books)
• Underdog: Ricky Turcios (approximately +165 to +172)

Cameron Smotherman arrives as the betting favorite, carrying odds near –205 on BetMGM and Bovada, reflecting his recent activity and striking volume. Ricky Turcios, despite his veteran savvy, is the underdog at roughly +168 on Bovada and +172 at FanDuel. Oddsmakers appear to favor Smotherman’s forward pressure and youthful edge, while Turcios boasts the experience and wrestling pedigree to capitalize on any openings.

As the early prelims unfold, this bantamweight bout offers a compelling stylistic matchup: Smotherman’s heavy hands versus Turcios’s grinding wrestling and seasoned fight IQ. Whether you side with the up-and-coming striker or the battle-tested veteran, this undercard scrap is a perfect example of why the preliminary slate can deliver some of the night’s most entertaining and unpredictable action. Make sure to tune in early—this fight could set the tone for the entire UFC 324 event.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Ricky Turcios Profile

Age: 31
Country: United States (Houston, Texas)
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling / Striking
Record: 13-5-0

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Fights)

• Jan. 18, 2025: Loss vs Benardo Sopaj (Decision – Unanimous)
• Jun. 8, 2024: Loss vs Raul Rosas Jr. (Submission – R2 2:22)
• Nov. 19, 2022: Win vs Kevin Natividad (Decision – Split)
• Jul. 9, 2022: Loss vs Aiemann Zahabi (Decision – Unanimous)
• Aug. 28, 2021: Win vs Brady Hiestand (Decision – Split)

Turcios is a seasoned veteran who made his UFC debut in July 2017. He blends collegiate-style wrestling with crisp striking—landing 40% of his significant strikes and defending 52% of those he absorbs. He also boasts a 20% takedown accuracy though his 44% takedown defense is a noted vulnerability.

Strengths

• Striking Precision: At 40% accuracy, Turcios picks his moments to land heavy shots, making him dangerous when he commits.
• Wrestling Base: His ability to mix takedowns into striking exchanges can neutralize opponents who press him on the feet.
• Reach Advantage: A 71″ reach allows him to control distance and set up his wrestling entries.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (44%): Turcios has been taken down regularly by well-coached wrestlers, leaving him vulnerable to ground control and submissions.
• Pace and Cardio: His average fight time of 13:44 suggests a tendency to fade in later rounds when pressured relentlessly.
• Inconsistent Form: Dropping three of his last five contests points to struggles adapting to evolving bantamweight talent.

---

Cameron Smotherman Profile

Age: 27
Country: United States (Houston, Texas)
Fighting Style: Pure Striking (Muay Thai / Boxing Base)
Record: 12-6-0

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Fights)

• Jun. 14, 2025: Loss vs Ricky Simon (Decision – Unanimous)
• May 3, 2025: Loss vs Serhiy Sidey (Decision – Unanimous)
• Oct. 19, 2024: Win vs Jake Hadley (Decision – Unanimous)
• — (Prior Octagon debut)

Smotherman burst onto the UFC scene in October 2024. Renowned for aggressive forward pressure, he lands 37% of his significant strikes while defending 59% of incoming shots. Notably, he has yet to attempt a takedown, reflecting a standalone striking approach.

Strengths

• Defensive Acumen: With a 59% significant strike defense, Smotherman frustrates opponents and minimizes damage.
• Pressure Striking: Relentless pace and volume can overwhelm less active foes, especially early in the fight.
• Durability: He has never been stopped in the UFC, showcasing a solid chin and technical defense.

Weaknesses

• Zero Takedown Offense: A 0% takedown accuracy means he has no answer when wrestlers force the fight to the mat.
• Moderate Strike Accuracy: At 37%, he leaves opportunities for counters and can struggle with precise timing.
• Experience Gap: Only three UFC outings may leave him less battle-tested than a veteran like Turcios, especially in high-pressure moments.

---

Tactical Outlook

This matchup features a classic striker vs. wrestler narrative. Turcios will seek to leverage his wrestling pedigree and reach to stifle Smotherman’s pressure, whereas Smotherman must keep the fight upright, employ angles, and use volume to win rounds. Bettors should watch Turcios’s takedown entries and Smotherman’s ability to defend them—this clash of styles will decide who controls the pace and path to victory.

Odds Overview and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of January 12, 2026, the moneyline for the Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman bantamweight scrap sits firmly in Smotherman’s favor across all major books:

• Cameron Smotherman:

  • BetMGM: –210
  • Caesars: –205
  • DraftKings: –198
  • Bovada: –198
  • BetOnline.ag: –185
  • FanDuel: –225
  • BetRivers: –205

• Ricky Turcios (Underdog):

  • FanDuel: +172 ← Best value for underdog
  • Caesars: +170
  • Bovada: +168
  • BetMGM: +165
  • DraftKings: +164
  • BetOnline.ag: +160
  • BetRivers: +163

Smotherman carries the chalk at roughly –200 on average, while Turcios commands plus-money as the underdog, with the juiciest price of +172 at FanDuel. If you believe in Turcios’s wrestling pedigree and veteran savvy, FanDuel currently offers the highest upside.

Line Movement and Notable Swings

Tracking each fighter’s odds over the past three weeks reveals two key trends:

• Smotherman’s Line:

  • Opened as heavy as –230 on BetOnline.ag (Dec. 26), then eased into the –200 zone by early January.
  • The biggest swing occurred between Dec. 26 (–230) and Dec. 28 (–190), a 40-cent shift toward him becoming a slightly less overwhelming favorite.
  • Since Jan. 2, his line has stabilized around –200 to –205 at most books.

• Turcios’s Line:

  • Initially priced at +195 on BetOnline.ag (Dec. 26), then dropped to +160 by Jan. 2 as bettors backed him.
  • A notable movement from +195 to +160 represents significant confidence in Turcios over the holiday week.
  • In the past week, his line has drifted back out to the +168–+172 range, settling at +172 on FanDuel.

These swings signal two camps of sharp money: early believers in Smotherman’s striking pushed his line lower, while late support for Turcios moved his number into premium territory for underdog backers.

Payout Scenarios and Implied Chances

If you had $1,000 to stake, here’s what you’d collect at current odds (including your original wager):

• Betting on Cameron Smotherman at –205 (Caesars):
  – You’d win about $488 in profit, for a total payout of $1,488.
  – Implied chance: roughly 67% to come out on top.

• Betting on Ricky Turcios at +172 (FanDuel):
  – You’d win $1,720 in profit, for a total payout of $2,720.
  – Implied chance: roughly 37% to pull off the upset.

Best Sportsbook to Back Each Fighter

• For Smotherman (Favorite):

  • BetOnline.ag at –185 offers the shortest juice on the chalk. That improves your risk/reward on the favorite.

• For Turcios (Underdog):

  • FanDuel at +172 delivers the highest payout if the veteran pulls the upset.

Whether you favor Smotherman’s youth and striking volume or Turcios’s experience and wrestling pedigree, understanding these line movements, current odds differentials, and payout scenarios will help you lock in the best price before fight night.