Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy fight analysis
Introduction
On February 1, 2026, fight fans will descend on the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney Olympic Park, Australia for the eagerly anticipated lightweight showdown between two of the UFC’s most dynamic strikers: #9-ranked Rafael Fiziev and #14-ranked Mauricio Ruffy. The bout is slated for the Main Card of UFC 325, with the first bell scheduled to ring at 2:00 AM UTC (roughly 1:00 PM local AEDT). Both men bring high-octane finishing ability and contrasting skill sets to the Octagon, setting the stage for a must-see clash at 155 lbs.
The Matchup at a Glance
- Event: UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes
- Date & Time: February 1, 2026 @ 2:00 AM UTC
- Venue: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW, Australia
- Division: Lightweight (155 lb)
- Status: Main Card, non-title bout
Favorite vs. Underdog
Heading into this contest, Rafael Fiziev is the established favorite, strolling in at roughly –130 on most American odds boards. An accomplished Muay Thai stylist with a 13-4-0 record, Fiziev has finished 8 opponents by knockout and secured 1 submission victory over the course of his UFC tenure. His blend of precise leg kicks, crisp boxing combinations, and 73% takedown accuracy make him a multi-dimensional threat.
On the other side, Mauricio Ruffy carries plus-money underdog status (around +110), but his 11 knockouts in just 12 career wins speak to his explosive, one-punch power. A towering 71-inch frame and 75-inch reach give Ruffy a clear striking advantage in range; he boasts 57% significant strike accuracy and an impressive 84% takedown defense. Despite his recent submission loss to Benoît Saint-Denis, Ruffy’s penchant for first-round finishes (8 total) means he can turn this matchup on its head in the opening minute.
Why This Fight Matters
This lightweight pairing pits Fiziev’s veteran savvy and calculated aggression against Ruffy’s raw knockout prowess and relentless forward pressure. Both athletes have bounced back from high-profile setbacks—Fiziev from unanimous decision defeats to Justin Gaethje and Mateusz Gamrot, and Ruffy from a slick rear-naked choke by Saint-Denis. Victory here could vault either into the top 10 conversation, positioning the winner as a dark-horse contender in one of the UFC’s most stacked divisions.
As the main card unfolds in Sydney, bettors and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if Fiziev can impose his technical striking and grappling talent, or if Ruffy will land that game-changing shot early. Regardless of your pick, this bout promises fireworks from the opening bell.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes event page.
Matchup and Fighter Profiles
Rafael Fiziev
- Age: 32
- Country: Kyrgyzstan
- Fighting Style: Muay Thai
- Record: 13–4–0 (8 KOs, 1 Sub)
- Height / Reach: 68″ / 71.5″
- UFC Debut: April 20, 2019
Recent Form
- Jun. 21, 2025 – Win vs Ignacio Bahamondes (Decision – Unanimous)
- Mar. 08, 2025 – Loss vs Justin Gaethje (Decision – Unanimous)
- Sep. 23, 2023 – Loss vs Mateusz Gamrot (KO/TKO, R2)
- Mar. 18, 2023 – Loss vs Justin Gaethje (Decision – Majority)
- Jul. 09, 2022 – Win vs Rafael Dos Anjos (KO/TKO, R5)
Fiziev has alternated highs and lows in elite lightweight competition, with signature Muay Thai striking—and an unexpected ground threat—earning him five finishes. His unanimous decision win over Bahamondes showcased cardio and technical maturity, but back-to-back losses to Gaethje and Gamrot exposed holes in striking defense and recovery after heavy shots.
Mauricio Ruffy
- Age: 29
- Country: Brazil
- Fighting Style: Striker
- Record: 12–2–0 (11 KOs)
- Height / Reach: 71″ / 75″
- UFC Debut: May 4, 2024
Recent Form
- Sep. 06, 2025 – Loss vs Benoît Saint-Denis (Submission, R2)
- Mar. 08, 2025 – Win vs Bobby Green (KO/TKO, R1)
- Nov. 16, 2024 – Win vs James Llontop (Decision – Unanimous)
- May 04, 2024 – Win vs Jamie Mullarkey (KO/TKO, R1)
Ruffy stormed onto the UFC scene with three straight wins—including two first-round knockouts—before running into Saint-Denis’s grappling savvy. His power and size advantage have overwhelmed opponents, but he has yet to fully develop a ground game, leaving him susceptible to wrestlers and submission specialists.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Rafael Fiziev
- Strengths:
- Takedown Offense: 73% accuracy—can threaten grappling exchanges to slow down big strikers.
- Takedown Defense: 90%—rarely taken down, even by elite wrestlers.
- Cardio & Durability: Average fight time 12:17 demonstrates ability to maintain output late into championship rounds.
- Weaknesses:
- Striking Defense: 51% significant strike defense—absorbs a high volume of clean shots against heavy hitters.
- Slow Starts: Durable but slow to impose offense; can be overwhelmed early by aggressive strikers.
Mauricio Ruffy
- Strengths:
- Power & Accuracy: 57% significant strike accuracy and 11 KOs in 12 wins—one of the most dangerous punchers at 155 lb.
- Striking Defense: 61%—uses reach (75″) effectively to avoid counters.
- Fast Finisher: 8 first-round finishes—capable of ending fights before opponents find a rhythm.
- Weaknesses:
- Grappling & Ground Game: 0% takedown offense; no fights won by submission—vulnerable if forced into wrestling exchanges.
- Cardio Questions: Average fight time 8:54 suggests he may gas if unable to secure an early finish.
This stylistic duo creates a classic power vs. technique narrative: Fiziev’s integrated Muay Thai and wrestling arsenal against Ruffy’s fight-ending power and reach. Whether Fiziev can weather early storms and drag Ruffy into deep waters, or if Ruffy lands one clean shot before takedown threats materialize, will decide this compelling lightweight puzzle.
Betting Odds & Line Movement
Current Betting Odds
-
Rafael Fiziev (Favorite):
- BetOnline.ag: –130
- Caesars: –130
- BetMGM: –135
- BetRivers: –132
- Bovada: –125
- FanDuel: –146
- DraftKings: –125
-
Mauricio Ruffy (Underdog):
- BetOnline.ag: +110
- Caesars: +100
- BetMGM: +100
- BetRivers: +107
- Bovada: +105
- FanDuel: +114
- DraftKings: +105
On most books, Fiziev sits around –130 against Ruffy at roughly +110, marking a clear lean toward Fiziev but still offering value on either side.
Favorite vs. Underdog & Best Sportsbooks
- The favorite is Rafael Fiziev at about –130 on average.
- The underdog is Mauricio Ruffy at approximately +110.
If you’re betting the favorite and want the best return, Bovada’s –125 line offers an extra edge. If you’re backing the upset, FanDuel’s +114 on Ruffy is the top underdog price available.
Payout on a $1,000 Bet
- $1,000 on Fiziev (–130):
You’d profit about $770 (returning $1,770 total). - $1,000 on Ruffy (+110):
You’d profit about $1,100 (returning $2,100 total).
Implied Win Chances
- Rafael Fiziev: ~56%
- Mauricio Ruffy: ~48%
Line Movement & Swing Analysis
Mauricio Ruffy (BetOnline.ag) opened at +113 on January 6, slipped to +110 later that evening, then jumped to +115 on January 7 when initial bets came in on Fiziev. By January 10, his line had dropped to +100, indicating sharp money backing the underdog. His current +105 suggests the market is finding equilibrium as fight night nears. On Caesars, Ruffy’s line shifted from +110 (Jan 9) to +100 (Jan 19), confirming steady support.
Rafael Fiziev (BetOnline.ag) debuted at –133, softened to –130, then briefly steepened to –135 on January 7 before settling around –125 on January 10. That swing back and forth reflects early confidence in Fiziev tempered by growing backing of Ruffy. On Caesars, Fiziev moved from –140 to –130, further illustrating market adjustment.
What It Means
Significant movement on both sides shows sharp bettors see value beyond the headline favorite/underdog dynamic. If you believe Fiziev’s technical edge and grappling will prevail, lock in a –125 line at Bovada before it tightens. If you trust Ruffy’s one-punch power and first-round explosiveness, FanDuel’s +114 remains the standout underdog play. Both fighters have seen their lines tested—now it’s up to you to decide which swing to ride.
AI Pick: Rafael Fiziev
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Rafael Fiziev, or see all the AI picks for Volkanovski vs Lopes. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
