Quillan Salkilld vs Rongzhu Odds & Analysis | UFC 325

Quillan Salkilld vs Rongzhu fight analysis

As the UFC 325 main card arrives Down Under, all eyes turn to the Lightweight division clash between Australia’s rising prospect Quillan Salkilld and China’s dynamic striker Zhu Rong. Scheduled for February 1, 2026, this non-title bout will take place at the world-class Qudos Bank Arena inside Sydney Olympic Park, New South Wales. Positioned on the main card of the highly anticipated “Volkanovski vs Lopes” event, this matchup promises fireworks early in the night, with an octagon walk slated for approximately 2:00 AM UTC (local time).

Fight Card Placement & Venue

• Event: UFC 325 “Volkanovski vs Lopes”
• Date & Time: February 1, 2026, main card (≈ 02:00 UTC)
• Venue: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW, Australia
• Bout: Lightweight (155 lb), 3 rounds, non-title

The Favorite: Quillan Salkilld

Hailing from Pinjarra, Australia, Quillan Salkilld enters this contest as the clear betting favorite, carrying odds of –230 (American) across major sportsbooks. At just 25 years old, he boasts a formidable 10–1–0 UFC record with five first-round finishes and an average fight time of 8 minutes, 12 seconds. With a 75-inch reach, powerful striking accuracy (58% significant strike success) and unblemished takedown defense (100%), Salkilld’s all-around skill set and hometown advantage make him the man to beat.

The Underdog: Zhu Rong (Rongzhu)

Representing Sichuan, China, the 25-year-old Zhu Rong arrives as the underdog, listed at +175 on many books. Despite two recent unanimous decision wins, his 27–6–0 professional record features an impressive 15 knockouts and six submissions, showcasing his finish-first mentality. Known for his 51% striking accuracy and 63% takedown success, Rongzhu is more than capable of shocking the local hero if he can impose pace and exploit openings.

Betting Landscape & Key Storylines

• Quillan Salkilld (-230): Leaning on relentless pressure, sharp counters and flawless takedown defense.
• Zhu Rong (+175): Looking to capitalize on explosive power, precision striking and opportunistic ground work.

This bout not only tests Salkilld’s rise among Australia’s elite but also offers Rongzhu the chance to cement his place among the division’s global contenders. Will the hometown favorite maintain his unbeaten trajectory inside the UFC octagon, or can the resilient Chinese striker pull off a major upset? Stay tuned as these two 25-year-olds collide in Sydney for a high-stakes lightweight showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Quillan Salkilld vs Rongzhu can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes event page.

Fighter Profiles and Matchup Breakdown

Red Corner: Quillan Salkilld

Age: 25 | Country: Australia | Fighting Style: MMA (well-rounded striker/wrestler)

Background & Physicals

• Height: 6’0″ (72 in) | Reach: 6’3″ (75 in)
• UFC Record: 10–1–0
• Debut: Feb. 8, 2025

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

• Oct. 25, 2025: Win vs. Nasrat Haqparast (KO/TKO R1 2:30)
• Jun. 7, 2025: Win vs. Yanal Ashmouz (Decision – Unanimous)
• Feb. 8, 2025: Win vs. Anshul Jubli (KO/TKO R1 0:19)

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (58%): Lands over half of his significant strikes, using long range and counters.
• Takedown Defense (100%): Has yet to be taken down in the UFC, forcing opponents into stand-up wars.
• Early Finisher: Five first-round finishes in six UFC outings; thrives in fast-paced starts.
• Physical Attributes: Size and reach advantage in most lightweight matchups.

Weaknesses

• Strike Defense (44%): Concedes over half of opponents’ attempts; can be hit when pressing forward.
• Takedown Offense (35%): Moderate wrestling output means elite grapplers can neutralize his ground game.
• Adaptability: Favors early aggression; risk of gas tank depletion in extended, high-pace fights.

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Blue Corner: Zhu Rong

Age: 25 | Country: China | Fighting Style: Striker with submission chops

Background & Physicals

• Height: 5’9″ (69 in) | Reach: 5’11″ (71 in)
• UFC Record: 27–6–0 (6 UFC bouts)
• Debut: Apr. 24, 2021

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Aug. 23, 2025: Win vs. Austin Hubbard (Decision – Unanimous)
• Feb. 8, 2025: Win vs. Kody Steele (Decision – Unanimous)
• Sep. 7, 2024: Loss vs. Chris Padilla (TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage R2 4:14)
• Feb. 26, 2022: Loss vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (Submission R3 1:40)
• Sep. 18, 2021: Win vs. Brandon Jenkins (KO/TKO R3 4:35)

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (63%): Converts nearly two-thirds of attempts, mixing wrestling into his stand-up.
• Finishing Instincts: 15 KOs and 6 submissions in 27 career wins; comfortable on feet and ground.
• Durability & Cardio: Average fight time of 12:19 suggests he can endure deep into decisions.
• Strike Defense (53%): Above-average at avoiding significant blows, allowing counter-punch opportunities.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Accuracy (51%): Only marginally above half; inefficiencies can cost rounds on the feet.
• Takedown Defense (84%): Vulnerable if opponent presses with high-level wrestling—six of 38 takedowns succeeded against him.
• Injury History: Doctor’s stoppage loss indicates potential susceptibility to damage or accumulation of strikes.

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Matchup Overview

Salkilld’s precision striking and ironclad takedown defense will test Rongzhu’s offense-heavy game. If Quillan can stick to a tactical jab-and-counter approach, he should frustrate Zhu’s entries and curb his finishing upside. Conversely, Zhu Rong’s high-volume takedown attempts and finishing pedigree could turn the bout into a grappling chess match or late-fight drama if he survives Salkilld’s early onslaught. This clash of styles—Quillan’s calculated aggression vs. Rongzhu’s versatile finishing threats—sets up a key stylistic battle in the lightweight division.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• Quillan Salkilld (Favorite)
  • Caesars: –230
  • BetOnline.ag: –225
  • DraftKings: –230
  • Bovada: –240
  • BetRivers: –230
  • FanDuel: –250

• Zhu Rong (Underdog)
  • Caesars: +175
  • BetOnline.ag: +190
  • DraftKings: +190
  • Bovada: +200
  • BetRivers: +180
  • FanDuel: +190

As of the latest look, Salkilld is a sizable favorite at roughly –230 (about 70% implied win chance), while Rongzhu sits around +190 (roughly 35–40% implied). The biggest gap—nearly five full odds points—underscores the market’s confidence in the hometown Australian’s all-around toolkit versus the Chinese striker’s upset potential.

For bettors, the best value on the underdog is currently at Bovada (+200). On the favorite side, BetOnline.ag (–225) offers the least steep line, maximizing payout for those backing Salkilld.

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Line Movement Analysis

• Caesars shifted Rongzhu from +185 to +175 over the past two weeks, signaling sharper early action on the underdog.
• At Caesars, Salkilld opened around –250 before firming to –230, reflecting significant early support for the Australian.
• DraftKings saw Rongzhu briefly peak at +200 before settling back to +190, while Salkilld oscillated between –230 and –245.
• Bovada has been the most volatile, with Rongzhu swinging between +185 and +200 and Salkilld flipping from –230 to –225 regularly.

These swings suggest a tug-of-war between value seekers on the underdog and hometown backers on the favorite. The narrowing of Salkilld’s line from –250 to –230 indicates heavy money on the local favorite, while the bump in Rongzhu’s number at multiple books reveals late demand for an upset.

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Bet Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you put $1,000 on either fighter at the most favorable current line:

• Backing Quillan Salkilld at –225 (BetOnline.ag)
  • Profit: approximately $444
  • Total return: $1,444

• Backing Zhu Rong at +200 (Bovada)
  • Profit: $2,000
  • Total return: $3,000

Those payouts translate to roughly a 70% chance for Salkilld and a 35–40% chance for Rongzhu according to the betting markets. While Salkilld’s line continues to shorten under heavy local support, Sharps circling the underdog have kept Rongzhu’s odds attractive. Whether you seek home-soil security with a smaller return or are hunting an upset with a monster payout, understanding these line movements and shopping the best sportsbook will be critical for maximizing value on fight night.